Gale Warning 577, NWS Anchorage, AK

889 
FZAK62 PAFC 161132
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
332 AM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-170200-
332 AM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 997 mb Kamchatka low merges with a 992 mb North Pacific low to
form a 973 mb low at 57N 174W for Tue morning. It moves to 58N 
161W at 982 mb for Tue evening, then weakens to 992 mb as it
crosses the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf for Wed morning.

$$

PKZ411-170200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
332 AM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt becoming NW 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-170200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
332 AM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-170200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
332 AM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-170200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
332 AM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

124 
FZAK62 PAFC 170015
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
415 PM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-171315-
415 PM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 982 mb low near 56N 175W deepens to 972 mb near 58N 171W by Tue
morning. The same low quickly moves to 58N 160W at 983 mb Tue 
evening before tracking inland of the Alaska Peninsula Tue night.

$$

PKZ411-171315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
415 PM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-171315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
415 PM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt becoming N 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming W up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-171315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
415 PM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt becoming 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-171315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
415 PM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming S 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt becoming W 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

020 
FZAK62 PAFC 171211
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
411 AM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-180015-
411 AM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 973 mb low near 57N 174W weakens to 986 mb near 58N 158W Tue
night, then across the Alaska Peninsula and into the Gulf Wed 
morning.


$$

PKZ411-180015-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
411 AM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-180015-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
411 AM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming W 10 to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-180015-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
411 AM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-180015-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
411 AM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas 14 to 28 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt becoming W 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

558 
FZAK62 PAFC 172342
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
342 PM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-181330-
342 PM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 967 mb low near 58N 168W weakens to 985 mb as it moves onshore 
at 59N 157W for Tue night. A 993 mb low remains nearly stationary
at 54N 163E from Wed afternoon through Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-181330-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
342 PM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ412-181330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
342 PM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-181330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
342 PM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt becoming 15 kt after midnight. Seas
8 to 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-181330-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
342 PM AKDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Gusts to 60 kt in the evening. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
530 AM AKDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Precipitation across Southcentral is on track to continue through
this morning. Any threat for flooding concerns in the Anchorage
area however, will be coming to an end later this morning as
rainfall becomes more scattered and showery. Gusty southeast
winds is gradually shift southwesterly as a surface low tracks
eastward skirting along the Gulf of Alaska coast through tomorrow
morning. Winds are expected to remain gusty for the Anchorage
area and as southwest flow strengthens up Cook Inlet, communities
along the western Kenai coast and Anchorage could expect gusts of
25 to 35 mph likely through Monday morning. Multiple weak
shortwaves will allow for upslope precipitation enhancement for
showers most likely along the mountains. Increasing instability
into this afternoon will raise the potential for a lightning
strike or two in the Susitna Valley and perhaps in the Copper
River Basin for a short period of time this afternoon. As the low
over western Alaska moves inland, models are struggling to
capture how far south the trough will dip into the Copper River
Basin. This has led to lower confidence in the probability of
precipitation forecast for Monday afternoon for the Copper River
Basin.

As that trough passes east though, a ridge will briefly
build across Southcentral allowing for some clearing skies Monday
night and Tuesday morning. Temperatures look to trend cooler with
many locations forecasted for lows into the 30s and perhaps near
freezing in the coolest spots that also manage to clear out
Monday night into Tuesday morning. Temperatures are expected to
remain on the cooler side for much of the week ahead. Clouds will
fill in on Tuesday afternoon as the next front moves across
Southcentral and the sogginess returns Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday.

rux

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Points:

* A Coastal Flood Advisory for the Kuskokwim Delta coastal
  communities and a River Flood Advisory for the Lower Kuskokwim
  River communities remain in effect through today. Water levels
  have peaked for most communities, but a higher peak in water
  levels is expected with high tide today.

* An even stronger storm system will track across the Aleutians
  into the Southern Bering Sea Monday afternoon then track toward
  Southwest AK through Tuesday. There remains high uncertainty in
  the exact track of this storm and locations most at risk of
  coastal storm surge flooding.

Discussion:

Winds across Southwest Alaska are expected to gradually diminish
through tonight as the low tracks inland across Western Alaska.
Light rain will continue into Monday morning, followed by a brief
drier period ahead of the next front.

Attention will then shift to the west, as a deep upper level low
and short-wave trough drop out of Russia and interact with a
surface low crossing the Northwest Pacific, causing the surface
low to deepen and curve northward toward the Aleutians tonight
into Monday.

Models continue to struggle with this as it approaches Southwest
Alaska through mid-week. Most recent runs (00Z) has most of the
models pushing into the Bristol Bay area by Tuesday night, though
at different times and at different strengths. The 00Z NAM was
the biggest outlier, pushing to push into the Y-K Delta. The 06Z
NAM has trended further south, choosing to align closer to the
GFS. This allows for some increased confidence on the low track.

Ultimately, expect a deep low somewhere along the Southwest coast
by late Tuesday, leading to another round of rain and wind and a
threat of coastal storm surge flooding. Stay tuned for updates as
we gain a better idea of the track of this storm and location of
greatest impacts.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Operational models are in surprisingly good agreement with the
progression of a deep Bering low into Southwest Alaska next week
on Wednesday. Gusty winds will accompany the low's movement
through the Aleutians with guidance suggesting the strongest winds
will be directed into Bristol Bay. There has been some variation
amongst previous models runs with the exact track of the low.
However, the differences in the low's track have yielded minimum
differences in where the strongest winds are forecast to occur. In
addition to winds, widespread showers are anticipated as the low
and its associated front track from the Bering into interior
Alaska. The progressive nature of the low should see it shift
eastward and into Canada by Thursday, allowing precipitation
chances to diminish. A broad troughing pattern looks to resume
thereafter, which will keep shower chances in play for both
Southwest and Southcentral Alaska through the remainder of the
long term period.

BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions could lower to MVFR for a few hours in the
morning. As winds turn southerly and rain lightens, conditions
should improve to VFR. Winds will remain gusty over the course of
the TAF period with gusts to around 30 kts.

&&