Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2024

Gale Warning 421, NWS Anchorage, AK

May 12, 2024

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at May 12, 2024, 3:56 PM AKDT. It was in force for 60 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 12, 2024, 3:56 PM AKDT (23:56 UTC)
Expired
May 15, 2024, 3:30 AM AKDT
In force
60 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted.

994 
FZAK62 PAFC 122356
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
356 PM AKDT Sun May 12 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-131430-
356 PM AKDT Sun May 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 999 mb low at 52N 164W moves to 155N 155W at 997 mb late this 
evening and then exits to the Gulf of Alaska Monday Morning. A 998 
mb low moves to 58N 170E Tue morning. Its front enters the Western 
Bering mid-day Monday and moves to the Central Bering Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-131430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
356 PM AKDT Sun May 12 2024

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-131430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
356 PM AKDT Sun May 12 2024

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-131430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
356 PM AKDT Sun May 12 2024

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-131430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
356 PM AKDT Sun May 12 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$
5 follow-up statements
783 
FZAK62 PAFC 131140
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
340 AM AKDT Mon May 13 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-140130-
340 AM AKDT Mon May 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 997 mb low at 55N 153W exits to the Gulf of the Alaska this
morning. A 994 mb Kamchatka low moves to 63N 177W at 979 mb Wed 
morning. Its initial front enters the Western Bering Sea this 
morning and sweeps across the Aleutian Chain through Wed morning. 
Its trailing front enters the Western Bering this evening and 
moves across the Aleutian Chain through Wed morning.

$$

PKZ411-140130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
340 AM AKDT Mon May 13 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft building to 
12 to 19 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ412-140130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
340 AM AKDT Mon May 13 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-140130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
340 AM AKDT Mon May 13 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt 
after midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ414-140130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
340 AM AKDT Mon May 13 2024

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$
967 
FZAK62 PAFC 140015
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
415 PM AKDT Mon May 13 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-141445-
415 PM AKDT Mon May 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 991 mb Kamchatka low moves from 58N 164E this afternoon to 61N 
177E at 972 mb Tue afternoon then to 66N 175W at 977 mb Wed
afternoon. Its initial front moves from the Western Bering Sea 
this afternoon across the Aleutian Chain through Wed morning. Its 
trailing front enters the Western Bering this evening and moves 
across the Aleutian Chain through Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-141445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
415 PM AKDT Mon May 13 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft building to 12 to
19 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-141445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
415 PM AKDT Mon May 13 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 9 to
17 ft building to 15 to 23 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ413-141445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
415 PM AKDT Mon May 13 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ414-141445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
415 PM AKDT Mon May 13 2024

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$
250 
FZAK62 PAFC 141138
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
338 AM AKDT Tue May 14 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-150145-
338 AM AKDT Tue May 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE BERING SEA...

A 976 mb Kamchatka low at 59N 170E moves to 63N 175W at 977 mb 
Wed morning. This low exits to the Chukchi Sea through Wed afternoon
at 982 mb. Its initial and trailing fronts sweep the Aleutian Chain 
and Bering Sea and move inland to Western Alaska through Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-150145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
338 AM AKDT Tue May 14 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-150145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
338 AM AKDT Tue May 14 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft building 
to 15 to 23 ft in the afternoon. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-150145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
338 AM AKDT Tue May 14 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ414-150145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
338 AM AKDT Tue May 14 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$
747 
FZAK62 PAFC 142359
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
359 PM AKDT Tue May 14 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-151315-
359 PM AKDT Tue May 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 974 mb Kamchatka low at 60N 179E exits to the Chukchi Sea 
through Wed afternoon at 982 mb. Its initial and trailing fronts 
sweep the Aleutian Chain and Bering Sea and move inland to Western
Alaska through Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-151315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
359 PM AKDT Tue May 14 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-151315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
359 PM AKDT Tue May 14 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-151315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
359 PM AKDT Tue May 14 2024

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ414-151315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
359 PM AKDT Tue May 14 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.  Rain and snow.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$
033 
FZAK62 PAFC 151130
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
330 AM AKDT Wed May 15 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-160115-
330 AM AKDT Wed May 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 979 mb low lifts across Northeast Russia and into the Chukchi 
Sea this morning. What remains of a dissipating front tracks into 
the coast of Southwest Alaska through this afternoon. A new 1000 
mb low develops over the northern Bering near 59N 177W on Fri 
morning.

$$

PKZ411-160115-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
330 AM AKDT Wed May 15 2024

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-160115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
330 AM AKDT Wed May 15 2024

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ413-160115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
330 AM AKDT Wed May 15 2024

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ414-160115-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
330 AM AKDT Wed May 15 2024

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at May 12, 5:00 AM AKDT, 10 hours 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 12, 5:00 AM AKDT, 10 hours 56 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 AM AKDT Sun May 12 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Tuesday night)...

A weak low and associated occluded front are dissipating along the
North Gulf Coast and Prince William Sound areas this morning, with
steady precipitation transitioning to showers. Multiple weak
short-waves rounding the upper low center are producing isolated
showers inland from the coastal mountains. A short-wave which
ejected out of the long-wave trough yesterday has formed a low
over the eastern Interior near the ALCAN border. This has been
producing steady light precipitation along portions of the Tok
Cutoff from around Slana to Mentasta Pass. Webcams show some
fresh snow accumulation through Mentasta Pass, but the snow has
not stuck to the roadway. This precipitation is tapering off early
this morning as the low drifts northward. With extensive cloud
cover across the region, temperatures have held to a narrow range,
but have slowly dropped into the 30s for most locations.

The upper level low will open into a trough and exit to the Yukon
later today. In it's wake, weak vorticity maxima will rotate
around a short-wave ridge centered over interior Southcentral
northward across the Alaska Range to the Alaska Interior. Weak
upper level forcing combined with increasing breaks of sunshine
and weak instability will produce isolated to scattered showers
across the region. Meanwhile, a weak low and short-wave south of
the eastern Aleutians this morning will track quickly along the
base of the long-wave trough into the Gulf tonight. This will
bring a quick shot of rain to Kodiak Island, mainly the east side
of the island. The low will remain offshore as it continues across
the Gulf on Monday, with little or no precipitation reaching the
north Gulf coast.

The big story for Monday and Tuesday will be increasing amounts
of sunshine and warmer and drier conditions. a couple distinct
short-waves will track across interior Southwest Alaska Monday,
but then quickly weaken as they reach Southcentral due to
increasing anticyclonic flow along the front edge of an amplifying
ridge (ahead of a deep low crossing the the Bering Sea). There
could still be some diurnally driven showers near the mountains,
but expect the bulk of the region to be dry.

-SEB

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE
ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday night)...

A weak, elongated low is moving south of the central and eastern
Aleutian Chain this morning, producing areas of light rain and
east to northeast small craft winds moving quickly east along the
Chain. This low will skirt south of the AKpen later today,
allowing quieter conditions and northerly flow to spread into most
of the Bering Sea and Aleutians as a strong upper ridge builds
into place behind this low. Across Southwest, there will be
lingering influence from a decaying low now situated over the Gulf
of Alaska as a messy upper trough continues to drift overhead.

By this afternoon, breaks in cloud cover already showing up on
satellite this morning should allow for enough heating and low
level destabilization for scattered showers to develop across much
of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay. The lingering
question is whether any of this can become deeply developed enough
to produce any lightning, as forecast soundings still show a
relatively warm, dry layer in the mid to upper levels that could
keep showers rather low-topped today. There will be a couple weak
upper perturbations rotating around the Gulf low into Southwest
today, and this could be the tipping point providing enough lift
to cool the upper levels and assist in allowing for a few
thunderstorms developing along the Alaska Range, perhaps drifting
out into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley before dissipating with loss
of daytime heating later tonight. Additional rounds of showers
will be possible on Monday, mainly near the Alaska Range out ahead
of a shortwave trough digging south around the developing Bering
ridge. However, instability looks even more marginal on Monday,
and thunderstorms are unlikely.

Attention from there shifts to a much stronger system poised to
affect a large portion of the outlook area later in the week. By
Monday, a strong 970s-980s mb low moving off of Kamchatka will
extend a warm front into the western Aleutians, with southerly
winds picking up into gale force range along and behind the
initial front across the western Aleutians and Bering A cold front
will move in quickly behind the warm front and begin to occlude
it on Tuesday morning, while the parent low moves farther into the
far northern Bering Sea. High-end gale force southerly winds will
spread east towards the central Aleutians and Pribilofs, while
winds remain strong but turn westerly behind the cold front. Bands
of light rain following both frontal features should also shift
from the western Aleutians to the central Aleutians and past the
Pribilofs on Tuesday.

By Tuesday night, the main low and trailing front will begin to
weaken as the low center moves up towards St Lawrence Island.
Even so, guidance is beginning to show the wind field holding on
for longer, and there is potential for 30 to 40 mph southerly
winds to reach the Southwest coast as early as Tuesday afternoon,
especially near the Kuskokwim Delta. It is too early at this time
to determine exact potential for higher than normal water levels
moving in with this system. However, coastal communities across
the Kuskokwim Delta should continue to monitor the forecast for
updates over the next couple days while we continue to follow this
strong spring low pressure system.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

For Southcentral...

By the long term, south central will be dried out and slowly
warming with conditions returning to, or exceeding normal.
Ridging over much of the mainland will persist through the end
of the week. Clouds will be intermittent across region but some
afternoon showers will develop across the Wrangell mountains.
By the weekend, clouds and rain will return. A low pressure
system will drop down from the northern Bering, south across
southwest Alaska and into the Kodiak/Western Gulf of Alaska.
Present forecast guidance keeps this system only precipitating
on Gulf communities, though there is a chance the system will
shift north, bringing wider spreading rains to the mainland.
Overall, temperatures will continue to rise, with daytime highs
warming (with no snow).

For Southwest and the Bering/Aleutians...

The first of two systems will move across the Bering Wednesday
and Thursday. This system will drag a front across the Aleutian
chain, bringing winds, rain and shifty winds will follow as this
tracks east. The brunt of the winds, outside of the Bering, will
be be focused towards Bethel into Wednesday evening. The next
weather system will develop across the western Bering and move
along the Aleutian chain. It is still too early to pin down
specifics on the movement of this low a week out, but trends are
sliding it south of Bristol Bay by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Light
slight southwesterly winds this morning will give way to gusty
southeasterly winds out of Turnagain Arm late this afternoon.
These winds will bend into the terminal with pressure gradients
becoming favorable as a low pressure system passes south of Kodiak
and re-orients the coastal ridge to the favorable east-to-west
direction. Unlike an instability driven Turnagain Arm wind bending
over the terminal with day-time heating, this will be mostly
pressure gradient driven with southeast winds peaking this
evening. Winds turn light and out of the north Monday morning.

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 12, 3:47 AM AKDTGale WarningAFC72 hr
May 12, 3:51 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC3 days
May 12, 3:55 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC34 hr
May 12, 3:56 PM AKDTGale WarningAFC60 hr
May 12, 3:56 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC3 days

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2024Every gale warning in 2024

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.