Gale Warning 323, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
453 AM AKDT Mon Apr 1 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Current satellite reveals an upper level low just north of Kodiak
Island moving north with a front pushing onto the southern coast
and into PWS as well as through the Northern Kenai Peninsula.
Radar indicates snow showers ahead of the front pushing north into
PWS, the Kenai Peninsula and Cook Inlet, the Mat-Su and Susitna
Valleys. Some of these snow showers are heavy and are reducing
visibility to one half mile or less at times as they pass.

A Winter Weather Advisory continues for for East Turnagain Arm
through 4 PM this afternoon where 6 to 12 inches of snow are
expected. A second Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for
Western Prince William Sound where 6 to 12 inches of snow is
expected to between Seward and Moose Pass and 4 to 8 inches of
snow are expected for Turnagain Pass and Whittier.

The low will continues to push north into PWS this afternoon and
rapidly weaken as it pushes north into the Copper River Basin
tonight. Storm force winds develop tonight through Kamishak Bay
and Barren Islands and Shelikof Strait as high pressure builds
east over the AkPen and the low in the northern Gulf of Alaska
continues to depart to the northeast. Seasonal temperatures and
mostly cloudy skies are expected Tuesday before a front pushing
east from the Bering Sea and AKPen moves into the Western Gulf on
Wednesday and into the Northern Gulf on Thursday.

-CC

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, the BERING SEA and the
ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Cold air will filter into Southwest Alaska. As of 4 AM AKDT Bethel
was at -2 degrees Fahrenheit and Aniak was at 9F degrees
Fahrenheit. More cold air will advect into SW AK. Looking west
there is a frontal boundary pushing into the western Bering this
morning and a second low east of the Kuril Islands and south of
Attu. The first low will bring gusty winds and precipitation to
the western and central Bering. But the second low will "bomb out"
(with the surface low pressure decreasing more than 24 mb in 24
hours) as this low moves towards Attu and Shemya. By Tuesday
afternoon the pressure gradient force field will span from St
Matthew Island and Nunivak to Attu.  A small corridor of
sustained hurricane force winds are looking likely for the for
the western Aleutian marine zones and possibly over Shemya. Wide-
spread hurricane force gusts are also likely for the marine zones
of the Western Bering. As such, a High Wind Watch has been issued
for the Western Aleutians early Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Upper level ridging moves over southern Alaska by mid week and
will continue tracking eastward through the end of the week.
Longwave troughing moves in behind the ridge, tracking across the
Bering Sea towards Southwest Alaska by Friday. Another quick
transient ridge moves west to east ahead of a North Pacific low
pushing into the western Bering next weekend. There is still quite
a bit of model discrepancy regarding how quickly this low tracks,
with the GFS being the quickest and tracking over the Alaska
Peninsula towards the southern Gulf by Saturday afternoon. The
overall track and strength is in decent agreement amongst the
models, with a 7-10mb spread between them. This pattern is
conducive to areas of heavy precipitation along the Aleutian
Islands and gusty southerly winds across the Eastern Aleutians
and southern Alaska Peninsula. Some of the models are hinting at
the potential for storm force gusts along the Central Aleutians
Friday night into Saturday; this potential will continue to be
monitored through this week. As the low passes the southern AKPen,
guidance looks to pull colder air out of the north across the
Bering Sea and across the Eastern Aleutians/AKPen. This could
result in a round of gusty northerly winds for the aforementioned
areas.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will transition through today to MVFR with
periods of MVFR ceilings in the morning hours. Snow looks to
return for the late morning, with subsequent showers potentially
keeping the ceilings lowered throughout the day today. A stronger
push of showers will move over by late Monday night into Tuesday
morning. By Tuesday morning, a return to more consistent VFR
conditions are expected.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
322 PM AKDT Mon Apr 1 2024

AKZ121-020200-
Western Kenai Peninsula-
Including the cities of Kenai, Soldotna, Homer,
and Cooper Landing
322 PM AKDT Mon Apr 1 2024

...BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE STERLING HIGHWAY FROM NINILCHIK
TO HOMER THIS AFTERNOON...

Bands of heavy snow showers will move north from Homer along the
Sterling Highway over the next couple of hours. Snowfall rates of
one to two inches per hour are possible with these snow showers,
resulting 1 to 4 inches of snow accumulation, especially across
the Homer Bluffs and Diamond Ridge. These bands will continue to
lift toward Kenai by this evening as they weaken, resulting in
less snow accumulation north of Ninilchik. Visibilities may be
reduced to one quarter mile or less in heavy snow. Motorists are
urged to slow down and use caution when driving through heavy snow
showers.