Gale Warning 272, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
417 AM AKST Thu Mar 7 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A weak shortwave currently over the Kenai Peninsula will continue
to move north and west this morning as weak ridging builds
westward from the northern Gulf of Alaska this afternoon. Snow
showers over the northern Gulf of Alaska, the Kenai Peninsula and
Cook Inlet will continue to push north and west this morning and
will weaken through the day as the shortwave pushes north over the
Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin. As high pressure builds,
and winds diminish, combined with some partial clearing expect low
ceilings and fog to push up Cook Inlet later tonight. Otherwise
expect mostly to partly cloudy skies, light winds and seasonal
temperatures today. This benign pattern is expected to continue
into the early weekend, when a north Pacific low pressure system
approaches the northern Gulf coast from the eastern Gulf. Model
agreement on the track of this system is currently loose, however
it does appear that a system will be approaching with questions
remaining how intense the low will be and what impacts it may
bring to Southcentral. Snowfall associated with this system will
be a focal point of the forecast for the next few days as details
of location, wind direction, upper-level support, and moisture
content come more in line. The track of this low will need to be
carefully monitored as upper level support may overcome typical
lower level downsloping and drying typical of easterly flow for
the Western Kenai Peninsula, the Anchorage Bowl and the Matanuska
and Susitna Valleys with snow possible for these areas Saturday
and Sunday.

-CC

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

A brisk northerly wind will persist into tomorrow resulting
in continued scattered snow showers across the AK Pen and coastal
areas of the Kuskokwim Delta. Inland locations may see a brief
snow shower through noon today. Widespread fog and low stratus
conditions will continue into late this morning across Southwest
Alaska before slowly lifting through the afternoon. Cooler
conditions are expected in Southwest Alaska for the weekend under
continued northerly winds.

The strong wind gusts and current scattered rain and snow showers
in the Aleutians will subside by this afternoon as a ridge builds
into the area. This weak ridge building into the Central
Aleutians will bring a short-lived reprieve to the active weather
as a 950 mb Bering low approaches from the west. The low will
arrive overnight into Friday resulting in increased winds and a
return to snow and rain showers. The precipitation type will fall
as mostly snow during the event. The lack of upper level support
and its transition to a 970 mb low Friday afternoon, confidence
remains moderate that over land wind gusts will stay below high
wind criteria. As the storm's front moves over the Central
Aleutians, a brief change from snow to a rain snow mix Friday
afternoon is possible. A brief respite from the storm is likely
Saturday morning as a ridge builds into the area. Another chance
of unsettled weather for the latter part of this weekend is likely
though with the arrival of another, at this moment, weaker 980 mb
low.

-DJ

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Sunday through Wednesday...

The entire weather pattern shifts slightly Southward during the
forecast period. This results in some forecast confidence changes
that becomes somewhat uncertain due to the adjusted tracks and
strengths through Wednesday. The pattern also simplifies with a
ridge over the Bering and a trough across Mainland Alaska and the
Gulf, and the North Pacific influences moved away from the
Aleutians. But upper level shortwaves through the pattern bring
out active weather conditions in nearly all areas.

A well developed low and front slip along the Aleutians and exits
to the North Pacific near the Alaska Peninsula for Monday. Gusty
Easterly winds stretch Westward over the Bering. A series of
weaker lows and fronts track along and South of the Aleutians
through Wednesday. Winds increasing to gale force spread over Thu
Western Aleutians Tuesday. Widespread mixed rain and snow changes
to rain, with gusty winds spread over the Aleutians and Southern
Bering into the Alaska Peninsula. Weak troughs moving along the
West Coast into Southwest Alaska through the end of the period.

A deep upper level trough over the Mainland helps draw another
round of Arctic air over the Eastern Bering and Western half of
Alaska, and spreading across the state through the period. A
moderately strong low loops and lingers over the Gulf diminishes
Wednesday, spreading rain, occasionally heavy along the Copper
River Delta, becoming snow further inland. Gusty coastal winds
return for late Monday through Tuesday, building a gale force
barrier jet along the North Gulf Coast early Tuesday.

Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with ceilings above 5000 ft and light
northerly winds will continue through at least this evening.
Tonight into Friday morning, there is a moderate chance for fog or
IFR/MVFR ceilings to develop around Cook Inlet and move over the
terminal.

CQ

&&