Gale Warning 264, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 PM AKST Sun Mar 3 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Wednesday)...

Model agreement remains poor as of this afternoon with the track
of the next low into the Gulf Monday and Tuesday. Beginning
tonight, a trough swings across Kodiak Island, eventually
developing into a surface low somewhere over the northern Gulf by
late Monday. The latest runs of GFS and ECMWF remain the slowest
and also in the best agreement, keeping the low further south. The
Canadian NH is faster and further east, while the NAM is also
faster and substantially further north. Interrogating bufkit
soundings shows a surprisingly small difference in storm total
snow across Anchorage despite placement and timing differences of
the low, with snow amounts of roughly an inch through Tuesday.

Greater confidence exists in stronger southeasterly flow over the
Gulf coast into western Prince William Sound. Both Whittier and
Portage could see upward of 6 to 10 inches of fresh snow with
lighter amounts of 2 to 4 inches for Seward and Cordova through
Tuesday night. Though even these amounts are subject to change
depending on the final track of the Gulf low the next 24 hours. A
more organized low moves into the Gulf on Tuesday night into
Wednesday with the potential to move into Southeast Alaska by late
Wednesday.

The most intriguing area to keep an eye will be the city of
Kodiak. While light snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are
likely to fall through Tuesday morning, the arrival of the second
and more organized low through midweek will see the potential for
heavier snow. More details to follow on Monday.

-BL

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Wednesday afternoon)...

The forecast remains on track for the the unsettled pattern to
continue into Tuesday. The front that brought snow and blowing
snow, as well as reduced visibilities yesterday and earlier this
morning is finally winding down with leftover snow showers in the
Kuskokwim Delta and interior Bristol Bay. There is no rest for the
weary though as another front is fast approaching the coast from
the Bering Sea. This front will spread snow over mainland
southwest from west to east tonight through early Monday morning.
The most accumulation with this system will occur across the
northern Bristol Bay. Areas from Dillingham to the north and west
have the best chance at seeing 6 inch accumulations with lighter
accumulations elsewhere. Snow tapers off from west to east mid-day
Monday through the afternoon hours. A Special Weather Statement
has been issued for the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay zones to
address the upcoming active weather.

Colder air filters in behind this system with enhanced snow
showers and gusty winds tracking across the Bering and the
Aleutian Chain. Another weaker system approaches the Kuskokwim
Delta coast Monday afternoon into the evening. This system will
mainly affect the Kuskokwim Delta coast but could also clip the
Western Capes of Bristol Bay. There stands the potential to be
brief blowing snow and possible visibility reductions since
temperatures will be colder as the system arrives; this is
particularly true for the Kuskokwim Delta coast and Nunivak
Island. The trends with this system today are to keep it a weak
and open wave as opposed to winding up into a compact low pressure
system.

By Tuesday, the low in the Bering continues tracking northward
towards the vicinity of the Gulf of Anadyr while a North Pacific
low tracks close to the proximity of the Aleutians and southern
Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN). More light snow and potential blowing
snow looks to be in the cards for the coast on Tuesday. There is
still some uncertainty on how far north the North Pacific low will
track in proximity to the Chain and AKPEN. Precipitation amounts
could trend upward or downward depending on the ultimate track of
this system.

A ridge builds across the central Aleutian Chain Tuesday morning
and progresses eastward to the AKPEN and coastal southwest,
yielding somewhat of a break in the active weather for Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the western Aleutians contend with another low pressure
system with more snow showers for Wednesday. A shortwave lifts
northeastward around the western Bering trough with a low pressure
spinning up in the North Pacific around the central Aleutians for
Wednesday. There is a lot of uncertainty with the position and
track of this low. Regardless, snow, rain/snow mix, and gusty
winds look likely along the Chain and to the southern AKPEN
Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Thursday through
Sunday...

Active weather on tap for the much of Alaska out through the
Aleutian chain with multiple low pressure systems pushing across
the area through the long term forecast. Starting off for
Southwest Alaska, a deepening low situated north of the St.
Lawerence Ssland will gradually open through Thursday afternoon,
sending a surge of increased winds and cooler temps down the Lower
Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay coastline and the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley through the weekend. Meanwhile, at the same time, a low
pressure system will skirt along the southern fringes of the
central Aleutians/ North Pacific on Thursday morning before being
absorbed into a further strengthing low within the Gulf of Alaska
by Thursday night. Further West, a well developed low and front
should approach the Western Aleutians and Bering by Friday
afternoon, with anticipated widespread gusty winds and areas of
gale force gusts overspreading the Western Aleutians by Friday
into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds are expected to
prevail overnight. Ceilings will gradually lower tonight, dropping
from about 10 kft this afternoon down to about 4-5 kft by 12Z. A
weak system may bring some light snow to the terminal Monday
morning, but any snowfall will be light with ceilings and
visibility not expected to fall below MVFR. Better chances for
light snow moving into the terminal look to be later in the day
Monday as a stronger upper level system approaches.

&&