Gale Warning 239, NWS Anchorage, AK

803 
FZAK62 PAFC 172359
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
359 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-181315-
359 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 978 mb low at 45N 178E moves over Atka at 990 mb Mon night. It
then moves to 59N 180 at 982 mb for Tue afternoon. Its front 
sweeps northeastward across the Bering and Aleutians through Tue 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-181315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
359 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-181315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
359 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
 Snow. Freezing spray.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-181315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
359 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Snow.
Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-181315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
359 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt becoming E 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas in ice free waters 1 to 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 to
11 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 8
ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4
to 9 ft.

$$

977 
FZAK62 PAFC 181135
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-190200-
335 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 983 mb low at 47N 177W passes over Atka at 990 mb Mon night. It
reaches 55N 175W at 987 mb by Tue morning, and continues north 
into the Gulf of Anadyr by Wed morning. The front of a 985 mb 
North Pacific low passes over Adak Wed morning.

$$

PKZ411-190200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
335 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-190200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
335 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Snow. Freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Snow. Freezing
spray.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-190200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
335 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Snow. Freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-190200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
335 AM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 to 11
ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 to 11 ft.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9
ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4
to 9 ft.

$$

631 
FZAK62 PAFC 182316
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
316 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-191315-
316 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 984 mb low at 48N 175W moves north over Atka, reaching the 
central Bering at 985 mb by Tue morning. The front associated with
this low will move across the central Aleutians by Wed afternoon,
ahead of an additional N Pacific low which will move to 48N 171E 
at 988 mb by Wed afternoon.


$$

PKZ411-191315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
316 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-191315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
316 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-191315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
316 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-191315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
316 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 to 11
ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 to 11 ft.
Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9
ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 8
ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4
to
9 ft.

$$

389 
FZAK62 PAFC 191052
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
252 AM AKDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-200145-
252 AM AKDT Tue Mar 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 988 mb low at 55N 175W moves to 64N 178W at 986 mb Wed mid-day.
This low moves inland of the Gulf of Anadyr through Thu afternoon.
A 986 mb North Pacific low at 50N 177E Tue evening moves to 65N 
176W at 991 mb by Thu morning. A new series of North Pacific lows
and fronts moves across the Western and Central Aleutians Wed 
mid-day through Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-200145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
252 AM AKDT Tue Mar 19 2024

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind up to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-200145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
252 AM AKDT Tue Mar 19 2024

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 10 to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 to 12 ft. Rain showers. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-200145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
252 AM AKDT Tue Mar 19 2024

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.THU...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-200145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
252 AM AKDT Tue Mar 19 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to
7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
520 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The forecast remains on track with precipitation currently ongoing
this afternoon across the Prince William Sound, the Copper River
Basin, and a band of light snow setting up over Cook Inlet from
the western Kenai Peninsula into the Susitna Valley. Some areas
along the Prince William Sound coast had transitioned over to
rain by late morning. Valdez still remains in snow despite being a
two to three degrees above freezing. They are still expected to
transition gradually over to rain tonight and tomorrow as warm air
advection is still expected to continue into next week.

The band over Cook Inlet is expected to gradually shift east to
Anchorage, Willow, and Talkeetna after midnight tonight and Sunday
morning. Confidence remains low on when and how long the snow
band lingers as it moves eastward into Monday morning. A ridge is
expected to move into Southcentral by Monday afternoon, however,
that will help clear out any lingering snow.

Models break down again around Tuesday morning with the timing of
the next front approaching Kodiak Island from the west Tuesday
morning with the NAM being the outlier with timing at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Tuesday)...

The weather remains very quiet across the Bering Sea, Aleutians,
and Southwest Alaska. An upper level ridge which has been sitting
over the heart of the Bering Sea has begun to retreat north and
west, allowing a high amplitude trough with embedded upper level
low to shift westward from mainland Alaska into the Bering Sea.
However, there is very little cloud cover associated with the
upper trough. A strong surface high over the Alaskan Arctic
(~1048mb) and low pressure over the North Pacific (~1000mb just
south of the Aleutian Chain) along with weak cold air advection
between the upper ridge and upper low is leading to persistent
northerly winds and dry air advection. Thus, Southwest Alaska
remains mostly clear and cold. Afternoon temperatures are once
again hovering in the single digits for much of the Kuskokwim
Valley and Kuskokwim Delta. Winds are strongest along the
Kuskokwim Delta (as high as 30 mph), leading to wind chill
readings as low as 25 degrees below zero. As winds blow off
the ice edge in the northern to eastern Bering Sea, bands of
stratocumulus quickly develop, containing light snow showers
and gusty winds. An old frontal boundary and upper trough are
strung out along the Aleutians, producing no more than a few
rain and snow showers.

A significant change in the weather pattern remains on track for
Sunday night through Monday. This will be the beginning of a
prolonged period of storm systems tracking from south to north
from the Pacific to the Bering Sea. After multiple weeks of
northerly flow in the eastern half of the Bering Sea along with
a significant southward advance of the sea ice, southerly flow
will bring a much warmer regime and both push sea ice back
northward and begin to break up and melt ice along the southern
edge. Models have been fairly consistent with track of the first
storm, with just some minor adjustments in track and timing,
which are reflected in the latest forecasts. The eastern
Aleutians (including Unalaska/Dutch Harbor and Akutan), southern
Alaska Peninsula (including False Pass, Cold Bay, and King Cove),
the Pribilof Islands, and the Kuskokwim Delta will see the
greatest impacts of strong southerly winds and rain Monday
through Tuesday. Southerly winds will be particularly strong
through gaps in the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula (such as Unimak
Pass, False Pass, and Cold Bay). The Kuskokwim Delta will see
some snow and blowing snow as precipitation arrives Monday
afternoon/evening - especially along the coast. Flow will shift
to southerly overnight, likely causing temperatures to jump above
freezing. Since the antecedent airmass is extremely cold, will
likely need to issue an Advisory or Warning for reduced visibilities
in snow and blowing snow as precipitation first arrives. Meanwhile,
confidence is much higher that Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim
Valley will remain dry for this first storm.

The first storm will rotate northwestward across the Bering Sea
Tuesday, with a new storm coming in from the Pacific farther west
along the central to western Aleutians. This storm looks quite a
bit weaker than the first storm, with just a narrow band of gale
force winds and precipitation along the leading frontal system.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

The long term forecast remains largely unchanged. The upper level
pattern will be highly amplified, featuring deep troughing over
the Bering Sea and Aleutians and a stout ridge across much of
Mainland Alaska and the Gulf. This large scale weather pattern
will favor warmer than average temperatures across Southern
Alaska. While drier weather and lighter winds are expected for
Southcentral Alaska under the ridge, much more active weather will
be in store for the Bering Sea, Aleutian Islands, and Southwest
Alaska as several storms move through. The biggest challenge in
the long term will be honing in on the track and evolution of
these storms, which will then inform where the strongest winds
(likely to gale force or higher) and heaviest precipitation are
expected. Forecast uncertainty increases by Friday among the
operational global models. There are hints that an incoming
shortwave will be strong enough to impact the ridge, but models
diverge on whether the weakened ridge will remain over
Southcentral, or if it will be displaced into Canada.

- KC

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...MVFR ceilings Saturday afternoon will continue to lower
but remain just above IFR this evening and are expected to remain
just above IFR through Sunday morning. Visibility in light snow
will drop to MVFR conditions this afternoon and remain MVFR
through Sunday morning. Winds will remain light mainly from the
north Saturday afternoon and will shift to the southwest Saturday
evening through Sunday morning.

-CC

&&