Gale Warning 233, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
421 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The remnants of an occluded front wrapping around a low in the
central Gulf of Alaska continues to weaken and push north through
Southcentral Alaska today. The rain/snow mix ongoing in the
northern Gulf of Alaska will diminish later this morning as the
frontal system pushes north into the Copper River Basin. Gale
force winds along the northern Gulf of Alaska coastline will
continue diminish as the parent low weakens and pushes to the
east. Southcentral in general is expected to see a relatively
benign pattern today and Thursday as the low exits to the east.
Weak ridging will begin to fill in as the low exits, allowing for
relatively clearer skies for Southcentral through the end of the
work week. By Friday, models suggest that a low will move north
out of the Northern Pacific into the eastern Gulf and then push
northwest into the Northern Gulf on Saturday and into Prince
William Sound on Sunday. This will bring another round of gale to
storm force winds to the northern Gulf of Alaska waters Friday
night and Saturday and strong winds through the typical gap areas.
In addition another round of precipitation will push onshore with
a strong front wrapping around the low for the Eastern Kenai
Peninsula, Prince William Sound and the North Coast with deep and
moist easterly flow. The track of this low will need to be
carefully monitored as upper level support may overcome typical
lower level downsloping and drying typical of easterly flow for
the Western Kenai Peninsula, the Anchorage Bowl and the Matanuska
and Susitna Valleys with snow possible for these areas Saturday
and Sunday.

-CC

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Fog has settled over the Kuskokwim Delta this morning. It should
lift late this morning increasing visibility. However, cloud
ceilings will be slower to rise. Scattered snow showers from a
weak low pressure system moving over the region will continue into
later this evening. Accumulations will be light ranging from a
trace to 2 inches with light winds. In its wake, northerly winds
will bring cooler temperatures overnight and tomorrow with
continued scattered snow showers through tomorrow evening.

A fast-moving low will bring rain and snow showers to the Central
Aleutians today. It moves well south of Dutch Harbor later this
evening. Wind gusts ranging from 35 to 45 mph can be expected into
the mid-afternoon hours before diminishing. In its wake, strong
northerly to northwesterly winds, especially through the gaps, can
be expected this evening into tomorrow evening. There is a chance
of freezing spray in the storm's wake as well. This chance is
forecasted to be strongest near the AKPen region where a
northerly wind direction will persist into tomorrow evening.

Lastly, a Bering low is forecasted to move toward Shemya Friday
bringing another round of showers and strong winds to the Western
Aleutians. Model consensus continues to decrease the likelihood
of hurricane force winds as the upper level support does not
remain strong.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Saturday through Tuesday...

A broad area of upper level low pressure extends across the
region through the forecast period, broken only by a closed area
of high pressure over the Russian Far East. The most extensive
trough stretches from the Arctic over Mainland Alaska to the Gulf
of Alaska. Forecast confidence is good, save some of the features
supported by shortwaves moving through the pattern. A well
developed low and front slip along the Aleutians through Tuesday.
A series of weaker lows track along the front through the period.
Widespread mixed rain and snow changes to rain, with gusty winds
spread over the Aleutians and Southern Bering into the Alaska
Peninsula and Southwest Alaska for Monday.

A deep upper level trough over the Mainland helps draw another
round of Arctic air over the Eastern Bering and Western half of
Alaska, and spreading across the state through the period. A
moderately strong low loops and lingers over the Gulf through
Monday, spreading rain, occasionally heavy along the coast,
becoming snow further inland. Gusty coastal winds diminish for
Saturday, but return for Tuesday.

Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist throughout the TAF
period, with cloud ceilings above 6 kft and winds remaining weak
and out of the north. Uncertainty does exist with the potential
for fog later this morning and again tomorrow morning, but is not
currently expected to develop. Any fog that does develop could
result in IFR or LIFR conditions with low visibility and ceilings
under 1 kft.

&&