Gale Warning 232, NWS Anchorage, AK

084 
FZAK62 PAFC 061258
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
358 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-070130-
358 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 997 mb low at 61N 166W moves onshore Wed morning. A 981 mb low 
complex at 51N 176W moves to 51N 169W Wed afternoon before 
retreating South into the North Pacific. A new North Pacific Low 
moves to 52N 171E at 955 mb Fri morning.


$$

PKZ411-070130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
358 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2024

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 20 kt becoming E 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-070130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
358 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2024

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-070130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
358 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-070130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
358 AM AKST Wed Mar 6 2024

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

112 
FZAK62 PAFC 070005
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
305 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-071515-
305 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 982 mb low at 50N 170W moves into the North Pacific at 994 mb 
for Thu morning. Its front moves into the Northern Alaska 
Peninsula and dissipates Thu afternoon. A 981 mb North Pacific low
moves to 52N 168E at 951 mb Thu night and continues to 55N 174E 
at 971 mb by Fri afternoon. Its front sweeps to the Central 
Aleutians for Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-071515-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
305 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2024

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 20 kt becoming E 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ412-071515-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
305 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2024

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind up to 20 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-071515-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
305 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2024

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-071515-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
305 PM AKST Wed Mar 6 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
439 PM AKST Tue Mar 5 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The active weather pattern continues for much of coastal
Southcentral Alaska as a low pressure system approaches the
northern Gulf of Alaska. A rain/snow mix is expected to continue
early tonight for Whittier, with a total snowfall accumulation of
4 to 6 inches overnight tonight. Places such as Seward, Valdez,
and Cordova will see lower totals, ranging from 1 to 3 inches
overnight. Gusty gale-force winds along the northern Gulf of
Alaska coastline will diminish tonight as well as the driving
force, the low in the Gulf, will begin to shift further east out
of our area for a time. Interior Southcentral is expected to see
a continued benign pattern as the low exits. Weak ridging will
begin to fill in as the low exits, allowing for relatively clearer
skies for Southcentral through the end of the work week. By
Friday, there are some models that suggest the low in the
northeastern Gulf will weakly meander back toward the northern
Gulf coast, however agreement on this is still loose. Temperatures
will become diurnal, higher highs during the day and lower lows
overnight, due to the clearer skies, however this is not expected
to lead to a significant temperature pattern shift. High clouds
lofted by the low are expected to still move over our area,
keeping us from dropping too cold overnight.

-CL

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Friday
afternoon)...

Overall, active weather remains in the forecast as several storm
systems move across the region. The major hazard to watch will be
late Thursday night/early Friday morning, as a strong low moves
towards the Bering Sea. Cold air wrapping around the low could
bring gusts approaching High Wind criteria (75 mph) for the
Western Aleutians, though current indications are that the
strongest winds will remain over the water and that the system
itself will be weakening as it moves into the Bering Sea. While we
will continue to monitor this system, we are not anticipating the
need for any hazardous weather products at this time.

Moving back to the present, satellite imagery shows a low near
Saint Matthew Island, while another low approaches the Central
Aleutians from the North Pacific. The low near Saint Matthew
Island will primarily impact Nunivak Island and Kuskokwim Delta.
As the low stalls and degrades, expect snow showers to move across
the Delta through as late as Thursday afternoon. Hit-or-miss snow
showers could lead to areal variability in snow amounts, but
generally not expecting much more than a few inches of snow.

The low approaching the Central Aleutians will gradually merge
with a new low forming along its front through Wednesday morning.
Models have struggled with how these two lows will merge, leading
to shifts in the location of strongest winds and overall
precipitation amounts for the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. All
told, this system will make for a wet and windy day for the Chain.
After they merge, the resulting low will dive southward into the
North Pacific Ocean. This will induce gusty northerly gap winds
across the Alaska Peninsula, with the potential for persistent
showers moving into the Bering Side of the Eastern Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula. For mariners, this influx of cold air in
northerly flow will lead to increasing coverage of freezing spray,
with the potential for heavy freezing spray along the sea ice edge
as we head towards the weekend.

Finally, as mentioned above, a strong low moving east into the
Bering Sea could bring gusts to hurricane force. Compared to
previous strong lows that have moved along this trajectory, there
seems to be a lower likelihood for winds 75+ mph to impact the
Western Aleutians. However, if the trajectory of the low shifts
northwards, the strongest winds could move into Shemya. Stay tuned
as we continue to update and fine-tune the forecast.

-KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Saturday through Tuesday...

A broad area of upper level low pressure extends across the
region through the forecast period, broken only by a closed area
of high pressure over the Russian Far East. The most extensive
trough stretches from the Arctic over Mainland Alaska to the Gulf
of Alaska. Forecast confidence is good, save some of the features
supported by shortwaves moving through the pattern. A well
developed low and front slip along the Aleutians through Tuesday.
A series of weaker lows track along the front through the period.
Widespread mixed rain and snow changes to rain, with gusty winds
spread over the Aleutians and Southern Bering into the Alaska
Peninsula and Southwest Alaska for Monday.

A deep upper level trough over the Mainland helps draw another
round of Arctic air over the Eastern Bering and Western half of
Alaska, and spreading across the state through the period. A
moderately strong low loops and lingers over the Gulf through
Monday, spreading rain, occasionally heavy along the coast,
becoming snow further inland. Gusty coastal winds diminish for
Saturday, but return for Tuesday.

Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist throughout the TAF
period with ceilings ranging from about 5-8 kft. Winds will
generally remain out of the north around 5-10 kts then decrease to
light and variable by Wed morning.

&&