Gale Warning 217, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
508 AM AKST Mon Feb 26 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Clouds are on the increase this morning as the transient ridge
axis over Southcentral slides east and an upper-level wave moves
toward Bristol Bay. The associated parent low over the eastern
Bering will push a front over Kodiak Island into the western Gulf
this morning. Precipitation is starting as snow across Kodiak
Island and for Kodiak City; however, as southeasterly winds
increase, warmer air will work in changing snow to rain as
temperatures climb into the mid 30s. Around an inch of two of
snow is possible for Kodiak City before the changeover to rain.

A triple point low will then develop along the front near Kodiak
and the Barren Islands this afternoon, lifting slowly northeast
along the southern Kenai Peninsula coast through Tuesday morning.
As the low moves northeast, its front will slide over the northern
Gulf and along the immediate Southeast coast with widespread
precipitation and easterly storm-force winds. Snow and strong
winds will develop for the eastern Kenai Peninsula with the
strongest winds for Whittier and Portage late Monday. Snow will
also likely become heavy in intensity across these locations, as
well as Turnagain Pass, Monday night through early Tuesday
morning as the low begins to drift south and the flow aloft
becomes northeasterly. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for
Portage, Whittier, and Turnagain Pass from Monday afternoon
through Tuesday morning where gusty winds will create areas of
blowing snow and reduced visibilities.

Gusty northeasterly winds will also ramp back up through Thompson
Pass as the front approaches. The combination of winds and light
snow will likely bring reduced visibilities through the pass late
Monday into Tuesday morning. The western Kenai Peninsula will also
see a significant increase in northerly winds beginning early
Monday afternoon. These winds may resuspend snow already on the
ground, causing areas of blowing and drifting snow from Kenai
south to Homer.

Gusty winds are also expected to return to the Mat Valley Monday
morning into Tuesday afternoon as the flow turns northeasterly as
the triple point low develops.

Northerly gap winds along the coast along with a reinforcing shot
of colder air will return to Southcentral late Tuesday through
the end of the forecast period as this system moves southeast and
exits the region. Temperatures will fall well below average for
the end of February. Wind gusts could reach 50 60 mph by
Wednesday morning for Seward, Whittier, and Valdez, and up to 60
mph for Thompson Pass.

-ME/TM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

A mature, storm force low now passing over the Pribilofs will
continue to focus most of the inclement conditions already in
motion for much of the outlook area through at least tonight. This
low's occluded front now stretches from the center out to the
Southwest coast and across the AKPen, with areas of snow and
blowing snow pushing onshore across much of Bristol Bay and the
Kuskokwim Delta along and ahead of this boundary. Farther south, a
core of storm force winds to the south of the main low is moving
quickly east-southeast towards the eastern Aleutians and southern
AKPen, with strong winds expected to reach communities including
Cold Bay and Dutch Harbor in a matter of hours as the wind field
migrates east with the low today. Strong westerly wind gusts to 70
mph remain expected at times as the worst of the winds move past
the eastern Aleutians and southern AKPen from late this morning to
early in the afternoon, and these winds may combine with areas of
falling snow to produce significantly reduced visibility at times
as a conveyor of cold air blasts southeast into the region and
pushes surface temperatures back below freezing. Farther to the
northeast, Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for all of
Southwest today. The main concern here continues to be the
combination of blowing and falling snow already observed along
portions of the coast, in addition to moderate snowfall
accumulations ranging from 3 to 9 inches by the time snowfall
begins to shut off as the low shifts into the Gulf later tonight.

By late tonight into Tuesday, conditions overall will settle down
to a degree, but will remain restless across much of the eastern
Bering Sea and Southwest. The entire low and supporting upper
trough will shift into the Gulf from tonight into Tuesday as a
strong ridge rapidly builds into the western Bering, allowing
strong low level northwest flow and cold air advection to persist
across the eastern half of the outlook area. The gustiest winds
will again be centered over the eastern Aleutians and AKPen, with
gusts into storm force range out of gaps and passes on the Pacific
side likely to persist through Wednesday as Arctic air continues
to stream south down into western Alaska from the Chukchi Sea.
Temperatures will also take a bitter turn back towards well below
average for late February, with -0s to -10s making a return for
nearly all of Southwest by Tuesday night. Meanwhile and in
contrast, a Pacific front will surge north into the southwest
corner of the Bering from late Tuesday into Wednesday, pushing
warmer air and snow changing over to rain across the western
Aleutians along with a round of easterly gales.

-AS

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The long term forecast remains unsettled with an mature low in
the Gulf Of Alaska and a Pacific low that will begin to moving
into the western Bering. By 12z Thursday, there is already some
significant divergence with the placement and the intensity of
those 2 surfaces lows. The divergence rapidly amplifies through
the forecast period. Generally expect wet and windy (gale to storm
force winds) weather across the Aleutian chain. High pressure
will build over the interior of Alaska. Strong gap flow winds most
likely will develop over portions of Southcentral. Arctic air
will filter its way into Southwest Alaska and South Central
Alaska. Portions of Southwest Alaska and the Copper River Basin
will easily reach -20F.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Fog in the vicinity could move over the airport for a
brief period this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions. Winds
increase later Monday night for PANC but there is a chance for low
level windshear starting Monday afternoon through Tuesday
morning. Stronger, southeasterly winds are expected across the
mountains with a northerly surface wind across the terminal.

rux

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
940 AM AKST Mon Feb 26 2024

AKZ121-271300-
Western Kenai Peninsula-
Including the cities of Kenai, Soldotna, Homer,
and Cooper Landing
940 AM AKST Mon Feb 26 2024

...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA COAST
AND COASTAL KACHEMAK BAY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

Northerly winds will increase through the day today as a
strengthening area of low pressure moves east along the southern
Kenai Peninsula coast. Wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph are possible
along the Cook Inlet coast and around Kachemak Bay Monday
afternoon through late Monday night. Wind gusts may be strong
enough to resuspend snow already on the ground, resulting in
areas of blowing and drifting snow. Visibilities may be
significantly reduced in areas of blowing snow, especially along
the Sterling Highway south of Kenai. Motorists are urged to slow
down and use caution when traveling.

AKZ112-271300-
Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon
940 AM AKST Mon Feb 26 2024

...GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

Northeast winds will continue to increase out of the Matanuska
Valley today. Winds will reach peak intensity of 40 to 50 mph this
evening. Areas of blowing and drifting snow are likely to develop
on area roadways and open areas through the day today. These
conditions may impact the evening commute. Motorists are urged to
slow down and use caution when traveling in areas of blowing snow.
Winds will diminish Tuesday morning.