Gale Warning 155, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 PM AKST Sun Feb 4 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday)...

Precipitation continues this afternoon for portions of Southcentral
as an upper-level trough and associated surface low lift inland
to the northeast. The Prince William Sound coastal regions are
seeing the heaviest precipitation currently (Sunday afternoon),
with most locations seeing snowfall expect for Cordova, which is
reporting rain. Precipitation will mostly taper off through
tonight, although some showers may linger around Prince William
Sound. Much warmer temperatures have spread across most of
Southcentral, with the Copper River Basin valleys and Thompson
Pass being the only remaining locations reporting sub zero
temperatures.

Around midnight tonight, another surface front will reach Kodiak
Island, bringing more precipitation and increased southeasterly
winds for Monday. The island can expect to see precipitation
initially start as snow with a rain/snow mix possible at times,
and then likely a transition to rain in the afternoon. A surface
low is forecast to develop late Monday morning/early afternoon
near Kodiak Island and the Barren Islands. The system will
continue spreading precipitation north to the Kenai Peninsula
later Monday morning/early afternoon, and then to Prince William
Sound later Monday afternoon. Southeasterly cross-barrier flow
will help to keep the western Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage Bowl
on the drier side, with the Copper River Basin staying drier as
well since the low looks to dissipate over the north Gulf coast on
Tuesday. The eastern Kenai Peninsula and western Prince William
Sound will see the bulk of the precipitation with this system.

There should be a brief respite later on Tuesday while the next
system approaches from the Bering Sea. Models are hinting at
another (weaker) front to reach Kodiak Island sometime late
Tuesday night, however, model agreement begins to diverge on
Wednesday with respect to the evolution of this feature.

AF

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Wednesday)...

A 965 mb low centered just south of Tanaga Island this evening
will track north into the central Bering Sea tonight, bringing
continued active weather to the region. Early Monday morning, cold
air wrapping in around the south side of the low will bring a
blast of storm force winds to portions of the central and eastern
Aleutians. The strongest swath of winds is expected to track
between Atka and Nikolski, the western and eastern edge of the
winds, respectively, just clipping these two communities. Though
the a chance for a sporadic gust to 75 mph remains, the most
likely peak wind gust is forecast to be in the 60 to 70 mph range
for these two locations. As a result, the threat of high winds has
decreased and the High Wind Watch has been canceled.

Further north, the low's front pushes into Southwest Alaska also
on Monday morning, leading to low visibilities caused by blowing
snow. The threat will be focused on coastal areas west of
Dillingham (including the Kuskokwim Delta coast) and in interior
Bristol Bay, where winds will be strongest. Some portions of the
Kuskokwim Delta coast are not favored for blowing snow - in
particular the section between Eek and Quinhagak, where snow will
be blocked by the Kilbuck and Ahklun Mountains in the easterly
flow along the front. The blowing snow threat will diminish
through late morning into Monday afternoon as the front pushes
inland. While some snow showers will linger after the passage of
the front, southerly flow will bring in warmer air (around 30
degrees) which will make conditions less conducive for blowing
snow.

Low pressure will linger in the central Bering Sea through mid
week, drawing up a series of strong shortwaves into the eastern
Aleutians and Southwest Alaska. In particular, another likely
storm force low tracks through the eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula Monday night, followed by a weaker low along a similar
track on Tuesday night. Though southerly flow continues to bring
in warmer air to the region, still expecting precipitation to fall
as both rain and snow along the Aleutians and AKPEN, with
temperatures in the low 30s keeping precipitation all snow for the
rest of Southwest Alaska.

CQ

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

A weakening upper-level low centered over Chukotka extends a
trough axis across the Alaska Peninsula and into the Gulf which
passes over Southcentral Thursday. This feature is expected to
bring gale force winds across the Bering and measurable snowfall
across Southern Alaska. An active pattern continues Friday morning
when a North Pacific low south of Kodiak Island progresses north,
pushing gale force wind across the Gulf, and bringing snow to the
northern Gulf coast through Saturday afternoon. This is followed
by several upper level shortwaves extending from a low complex
over the eastern Bering, which pass over Southwest and
Southcentral through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Snow across Anchorage will gradually taper off the
remainder of the evening. There's some uncertainty with regards to
if the MVFR CIG will be able to clear, but thinking is that by
sometime tomorrow low/mid-level clouds will be able to clear ahead
of the next front. Another front will bring snow to the area
Monday evening/overnight, but downsloping and lack of lift should
keep most snow out of Anchorage, including ANC. VFR conditions
should prevail for most of Monday with a north wind around 10 kt.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1003 PM AKST Sun Feb 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 AM     Snow             Thunderbird Dr          61.44N 149.36W
02/04/2024  M6.0 inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

            Updated Storm Total.

1013 AM     Snow             Old Seward and Klatt    61.11N 149.86W
02/04/2024  M5.3 inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

1034 AM     Snow             Upper Hillside          61.12N 149.71W
02/04/2024  M5.0 inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

1111 AM     Snow             DeArmoun and Elmore     61.10N 149.82W
02/04/2024  M6.0 inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

1215 PM     Snow             S Fork Eagle River      61.23N 149.44W
02/04/2024  M4.2 inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

0117 PM     Snow             Eagle River Hillside    61.31N 149.48W
02/04/2024  M5.8 inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

0138 PM     Snow             Eagle River             61.30N 149.53W
02/04/2024  M6.6 inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

0338 PM     Snow             Upper Potter Valley     61.06N 149.76W
02/04/2024  M7.5 inch        Anchorage          AK   Trained Spotter

            Storm Total 0.33 liquid equivalent.

0417 PM     Snow             South Addition          61.21N 149.91W
02/04/2024  M8.3 inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

0433 PM     Snow             Taku                    61.15N 149.88W
02/04/2024  E6.0 inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

0436 PM     Snow             Upper Hillside          61.12N 149.72W
02/04/2024  M8.0 inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

1001 PM     Snow             Chugiak                 61.41N 149.48W
02/04/2024  E9.0 inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

1002 PM     Snow             Muldoon                 61.21N 149.73W
02/04/2024  E7.0 inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

0434 PM     Snow             10 miles W of McCarthy  61.40N 143.13W
02/04/2024  M4.0 inch        Copper River       AK   Public

            Midnight to 8:am.

0738 PM     Snow             Slana                   62.70N 143.89W
02/04/2024  E0.4 inch        Copper River       AK   Public

0620 AM     Snow             Kenai City              60.55N 151.24W
02/04/2024  M6.0 inch        Kenai Peninsula    AK   Public

0900 AM     Snow             Clam Gulch              60.18N 151.42W
02/04/2024  E8.0 inch        Kenai Peninsula    AK   Public

0900 AM     Snow             3 miles S of Kenai      60.52N 151.25W
02/04/2024  M8.0 inch        Kenai Peninsula    AK   Public

0453 PM     Snow             Daniels Lake            60.74N 151.21W
02/04/2024  E9.0 inch        Kenai Peninsula    AK   Public

0551 PM     Snow             Kasilof                 60.33N 151.25W
02/04/2024  E7.0 inch        Kenai Peninsula    AK   Public

0621 PM     Snow             Soldotna                60.52N 151.00W
02/04/2024  E9.0 inch        Kenai Peninsula    AK   Public

0814 PM     Snow             Sterling                60.54N 150.83W
02/04/2024  E8.0 inch        Kenai Peninsula    AK   Public

0650 AM     Snow             North Church Rd.        61.63N 149.48W
02/04/2024  M4.5 inch        Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Public

0900 AM     Snow             Palmer                  61.61N 149.10W
02/04/2024  M3.0 inch        Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Public

0900 AM     Snow             Parks and Seward Meridi 61.58N 149.37W
02/04/2024  M4.0 inch        Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Public

            Storm total.

0100 PM     Snow             Parks and E Fairview    61.56N 149.33W
02/04/2024  M3.5 inch        Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Public

0115 PM     Snow             W Sunset Ave            61.53N 149.65W
02/04/2024  M8.0 inch        Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Public

0230 PM     Snow             Big Lake and W Hollywoo 61.54N 149.81W
02/04/2024  M9.0 inch        Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Public

0435 PM     Snow             Mile 9.5 KGB Rd         61.51N 149.65W
02/04/2024  E8.5 inch        Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Public

0540 PM     Snow             Dawn Lake               61.55N 149.70W
02/04/2024  M6.2 inch        Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Public

0550 PM     Snow             Mile 11.5 KGB HWY       61.49N 149.69W
02/04/2024  E9.5 inch        Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Public

0552 PM     Snow             Sutton                  61.72N 148.88W
02/04/2024  E2.0 inch        Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Public

0553 PM     Snow             Willow                  61.76N 150.04W
02/04/2024  E8.0 inch        Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Public

0604 PM     Snow             Meadow Lakes            61.64N 149.59W
02/04/2024  E12.0 inch       Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Public

&&