Gale Warning 13, NWS Anchorage, AK

437 
FZAK62 PAFC 140032
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
332 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-141500-
332 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 973 mb low at 56N 166W moves onshore near 60N 162W at 979 mb 
Sat evening. Its front sweeps across Southwest Alaska and the Gulf 
through Sun afternoon. A 985 mb South Kamchatka low moves to 62N 178W
at 978 mb Mon morning. Its front moves over the Western Aleutians 
and Bering Mon morning. 

$$

PKZ411-141500-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
332 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2024

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Snow.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-141500-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
332 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Snow.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain with snow.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-141500-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
332 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Rain with snow.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-141500-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
332 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
435 PM AKST Fri Jan 12 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A relatively quiet but still somewhat unsettled pattern is
expected to continue over the coming weekend. An old and
deteriorating, shallow front is still draped out over the central
Gulf this evening as it slowly drifts underneath the very
amplified upper ridge still extending from the Gulf all the way
north to the Beaufort Sea. Areas of light snow will continue to
follow this front into the eastern coast of the Kenai Peninsula
out to the Prince William Sound at times as the front and
southeasterly winds ahead of it steadily weaken overnight.
Meanwhile, most of the Southcentral interior will stay mostly dry,
with even some breaks in the cloud cover likely towards Anchorage
and the Mat-Su Valleys.

Looking farther into the weekend, the next feature of interest
will be directly tied to the strong low currently organizing south
of the Aleutians. This low's occluding front will lift northeast
into the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island as the main area of
low pressure also lifts north into Southwest on Saturday. This
will help strengthen the ridge axis out ahead of it still
extending from the Gulf into Southcentral as lower pressure
begins to encroach into the western Gulf, resulting in a
strengthening east to west gradient and another round of
increasing east to southeast winds developing over the
northern/western Gulf, across the eastern Kenai Peninsula, and
along Turnagain Arm. Meanwhile, a shield of precipitation
following ahead of the front will work northeast with time. Low
level temperatures will be warm enough for Kodiak to see all rain
as the boundary moves past on Saturday morning, but most areas
away from the immediate coastline should be cold enough for snow
to start out as precipitation resumes between the western Kenai
Peninsula and Prince William Sound region between Saturday morning
and Saturday evening. Southeasterly flow should be strong enough
to keep most of the eastern Kenai Peninsula up into much of the
Mat-Su Valleys dry due to downslope drying, but it's looking more
likely for a short burst of light snow to move up the Cook Inlet
early on Sunday as the front lifts past and as southeasterly winds
shut off. Overall this still does not look like an impressive
event, with generally 0.5 to 1.5 inches of new snowfall possible
as this wave moves past between the western Kenai Peninsula and
Mat Valley on Sunday morning.

Looking towards the tail end of the holiday weekend, forecast
uncertainty once again picks up in magnitude. A secondary trough
trailing behind the low that should be moving up into western
Alaska by Sunday will move up the Alaska Peninsula on Sunday,
turning more towards the east as it reaches Southcentral on Sunday
night. Models vary in terms of how quickly this shortwave will
traverse the region from west to east, resulting in decreasing
forecast confidence through Monday. At this point, it does look
likely the middle to lower levels will be fairly dry as the trough
axis moves past, casting doubt on any additional snowfall
potential continuing west of the Prince William Sound and Chugach
Range through Sunday night. Regardless, expect slightly cooler
temperatures and drier conditions to return area-wide later on
Monday as the shortwave continues east towards the AlCan border
and Yukon and as a new upper level ridge builds back into place
from the west.

- AS

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

Active weather continues for southwest Alaska and the Aleutian
chain as a deepening low pressure system moves northward from south
of the eastern Aleutians into the eastern Bering Sea. Rain (and some
snow) has already spread across much of the eastern Aleutians
through the southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) and north through the
Kuskokwim Delta along the effective warm front. As of 3PM,
temperatures have warmed to above freezing throughout much of
southwest Alaska, though spots in the Ahklun Mountains and Nunivak
Island have remained below freezing. Continued warm advection will
bring the temp above 32F for Nunivak Island by this evening and
for much of the lower elevations around the Ahkluns.

The primary forecast concern with this system is the combination of
high wind and a changeover back to snow on the backside of the low
as it shifts northward across the eastern Aleutians. A High Wind
Warning is in effect tonight into tomorrow morning, primarily for
the Dutch Harbor / Unalaska region, as well as Nikolski. High wind
will first arrive in Nikolski this evening, with intensity picking
up across Dutch Harbor later in the night. The majority of the
islands will receive rain through the night before a transition to a
wet snow, near 32F, on Saturday morning. Snow may have trouble
accumulating, but where it does, approximately 2-4 inches is the
most likely scenario through tomorrow. The strongest of winds should
subside by around 9AM, or when the high wind warning is set to
expire.

Similarly, snowfall paired with a strong northerly wind is also
expected for the Pribilof Islands. With snow/blowing snow more of a
concern than wind for the islands, a winter weather advisory has
been issued rather than a high wind warning as mentioned above for
the eastern Aleutians. The effective warm front / trough rotating
about the north side of the low will rotate to near the Pribilof
Islands, with the axis remaining just off to the east. This will
maintain cold air and snow as the dominant p-type.
North/Northwesterly winds will increase overnight, gusting to around
60 mph at times. Snowfall will generally be in the 2-4 inch range,
but models continue to indicate quite the precip gradient in this
area. Should the trough be closer, more snow would fall than
forecast... and vice versa should the trough remain farther east. In
any case, high wind paired with snow will yield a reduction in
visibility tonight and through the morning.

Conditions will improve for the eastern Aleutians, AKPEN, and the
Pribilof Islands during the day on Saturday as the low heads towards
the mouth of the Kuskokwim Delta, weakening as it does so. The
primary concern at this point is for elevated water levels for the
Kuskokwim Bay Coast and the northern Bristol Bay coast. Periods of
strong southerly winds combined with astronomically high tides may
cause water levels to rise above normal highest tide. While higher
than normal water levels are possible, it seems unlikely that water
levels would get high enough to cause flooding in coastal
communities. The most likely communities to see higher than normal
water levels include Kwigillingok and Kongiganak (on Kuskokwim Bay)
and Togiak (on Bristol Bay).

Colder air will follow behind this low late Saturday and Sunday as
it lifts north through western Alaska. The next weathermaker will be
a low moving east from the Kamchatka Peninsula and the attendant
front as it moves northeast through the Bering. Storm force (>48kt)
winds are the primary concern with this front, but the primarily
belt of stronger wind looks to remain west of Adak. The front will
extend south through western and central Aleutians before diffusing
as the parent low shifts away and another system begins to approach
from the southwest.

-Brown

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

An upper level high moves into the Central Bering and expands
across most of Interior Alaska through the forecast period. The
strength and extent of this high suggests the beginning of a
blocking high which lasts beyond the end of the weekend. Model
confidence is good with the greatest variance between models
along the Canadian border. A series of lows slide across the
Arctic before diving Southward over the Alaska-Canadian border for
Thursday. This sets up a closed low center over the Southern Gulf
Thursday into the weekend. Weather becomes relatively quiet, with
the exceptions of gusty winds over the Western Bering,
diminishing for Thursday. Areas of outflow winds develop along the
Alaska Peninsula and Southcentral Coasts, with gale force gap
winds through the Barren Islands and Shelikof Strait and along the
Alaska Peninsula Coast into the Eastern Aleutians developing for
Thursday and diminishing Friday. Interior Alaska may see Bora-
type winds, bringing cold air with the gusty winds to much of
Southcentral.

Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
939 PM AKST Fri Jan 12 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Cold Bay                55.20N 162.72W
01/12/2024  M87 MPH          Aleutians East     AK   ASOS

            A 76 knot wind gust was measured by the Cold
            Bay ASOS.

&&