Gale Warning 101, NWS Anchorage, AK

933 
FZAK51 PAFC 262348
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-271245-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 983 mb low at 270 nm southwest of Port Alexander strengthens to
979 mb at 130 nm west of Middleton Island by Sat morning before 
dissipating Sat afternoon. An additional area of low pressure 
moves to 275 nm southeast of Kodiak Island at 979 mb Sat 
afternoon, moving north to 37 nm north of Middleton Island at 981 
mb by Sun morning.

$$

PKZ710-271245-
Cape Suckling to Gravel Point out to 15 NM-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain with snow.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ711-271245-
Gravel Point to Cape Cleare out to 15 NM-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ712-271245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare from 15 to 75 NM-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ715-271245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point out to 15 NM-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ716-271245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point from 15 to 75 NM-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ714-271245-
Resurrection Bay-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ724-271245-
Northwest Prince William Sound-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ725-271245-
Central and Eastern Prince William Sound-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ726-271245-
Southwest Prince William Sound-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ720-271245-
Port of Valdez-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ721-271245-
Valdez Narrows-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ722-271245-
Valdez Arm-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ723-271245-
Passage Canal-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ730-271245-
West of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Extreme freezing spray
at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on 
vessels.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Extreme freezing spray
at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on 
vessels.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Extreme freezing spray
at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on 
vessels.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ731-271245-
Barren Islands East-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ733-271245-
Gore Point to Marmot Island from 15 to 80 NM-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ732-271245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak out to 15 NM-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt except N 35 kt N of Dangerous Cape.
Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt except N 30 kt N of Dangerous Cape.
Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ734-271245-
Marmot Island To Sitkinak from 15 to 85 NM-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt except N 35 kt N of Dangerous Cape.
Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt except NW 30 kt N of Dangerous Cape.
Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt except NW 30 kt N of Dangerous Cape.
Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ736-271245-
Chiniak Bay-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ737-271245-
Marmot Bay-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ738-271245-
Shelikof Strait-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Extreme freezing spray
at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on 
vessels.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Extreme freezing spray
at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on 
vessels. 
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ742-271245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ740-271245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ741-271245-
Kachemak Bay-
248 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt except N 25 kt in the outer bay.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt except N 25 kt in the outer bay.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt except N 25 kt in the outer bay.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
444 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Relatively benign weather will continue through tonight. Areas of
fog may develop in the valleys and low lying areas tonight into
tomorrow morning.

Active weather returns to portions of Southcentral tomorrow.
Primary areas of concern will be the Copper River Basin, eastern
Prince William Sound, and Cordova as a series of low pressure
systems track northwards across the Gulf of Alaska. Longwave
Arctic troughing extends south over much of the western portions
of Southcentral, including the Mat-Su Valleys, Anchorage, the
Kenai Peninsula, and Kodiak Island. The trough looks to be strong
enough to keep the heavy precipitation associated with the Gulf
low(s) from spilling into these regions, however, some light,
localized precipitation is possible. There have been quite a bit
of model inconsistency with these incoming Gulf lows bringing
varying amounts of snowfall to different regions. The most recent
runs are pointing towards a further east track, resulting in a
long duration snowfall with higher amounts along the northern
coast - Cordova, Valdez, Thompson Pass - as well as the Copper
Basin. Three Winter Storm Watches have been issued for heavy snow
and new snow accumulation beginning Friday and lasting through
Sunday night into Monday morning. Eastern Prince William Sound,
including Cordova, could see between 8 and 16 inches of new snow
accumulation, Valdez and Keystone Canyon with 18 to 30 inches
while Thompson Passes could see 28 to 40 inches of new snow. For
the Copper River Basin, the southern portions of the Basin will
see the highest snow amounts, ranging from 18 to 30 inches, and
from Glennallen to Paxon values range from 12 to 24 inches of new
snow. Snow is expected to be heavy and may reduce visibilities at
times.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Upper level high pressure is currently over the Western Aleutians
and continues to slide west as a strong low lingering just south
of the Aleutian Chain weakens through early Friday. Over the
mainland, zonal flow predominates through Friday morning. Skies
will remain mostly clear across Southwest into portions of
Southcentral and the eastern Bering sea as cold air remains in
place with offshore flow.

An upper level trough will develop over the mainland interior
dipping into Southwest Friday afternoon. This will open the door
for more cold air advection and increasing winds to the end of
this week. Winds may become more northerly as the trough deepens
southward, and increase up to gale force. With the cold air
advection, winds could become gusty through susceptible terrain
gaps. Confidence remains low with regards to precise wind speed
and temperature values due to variations between model runs,
however, there is moderate to high confidence for frigid
temperatures and higher wind by Friday. Wind chill temperatures
over much of Southwest is likely to dip into the minus 40 to minus
50 degrees Fahrenheit range. In the lower Kuskokwim Valley wind
chill temperatures may reach minus 50 to minus 60 Fahrenheit.
Heavy freezing spray will consequently return toward the end of
the week with ice accretion of at least 4 cm per hour near the ice
edge in the eastern Bering beginning as soon as after midnight
into Friday morning, potentially lasting into next week.

As cold air moves over relatively warmer sea surface temperatures
and winds increase from the north, ocean effect snow showers
could develop across the Bering Sea and becoming more prominent as
yet another embedded trough develops in the north Bering and
reinforces cold air southward for Saturday. Blowing snow and
reduced visibility could become an issue with the snow showers
moving across the Pribilofs, the eastern Aleutians, and the Alaska
Peninsula.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The beginning of the weekend will see a trough developing over
central/western Alaska. With the north-south alignment of the
trough, hazardous cold temperatures are possible along the western
portion of the trough, extending into portions of southwest
Alaska. These conditions would persist through the weekend, but
are possible to extend into early next week. With an increasing
pressure gradient forming through the Bering, strong gap winds
across the western Aleutian islands are currently projected during
the weekend.

Through the end of the weekend into early next week, uncertainty
remains on the potential of shortwaves forming in the eastern Gulf
of Alaska, as well as their track. Presently, a series of
shortwaves are expected to provide increased precipitation along
the Alaska Panhandle and will stretch as far west as the eastern
portions of Prince William Sound. Previous model guidance had the
majority of the heavy precipitation primarily along the Alaska
Panhandle, but there are some trends that are starting to suggest
more precipitation closer to Southcentral. Increased model
agreement closer to the event will help with the confidence of
this forecast in the coming days. Additionally, regardless of the
exact location of the trough and shortwaves, gap winds are likely
with this system. The main region of increased gap winds will
extend from the eastern Bering to the western portions of Cook
Inlet and the Alaska Range. Overall, the positioning of the trough
over Alaska in the coming days will play a significant role in
the placement of strong winds and heavy precipitation throughout
the weekend and early next week.

BS

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light northerly winds will continue. Periods of low
visibility (mostly MVFR but may drop to IFR at times) and cloud
ceilings dropping below 300 ft is expected through the overnight
hours with areas of vicinity fog. Conditions should improve
through the morning hours.

&&