Wind Advisory 8, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Big Stone County, MN, Traverse County, MN, Brown County, SD, Buffalo County, SD, Campbell County, SD, Clark County, SD, Codington County, SD, Corson County, SD, Day County, SD, Deuel County, SD, Dewey County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Faulk County, SD, Grant County, SD, Hamlin County, SD, Hand County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Hyde County, SD, Jones County, SD, Lyman County, SD, Marshall County, SD, McPherson County, SD, Potter County, SD, Roberts County, SD, Spink County, SD, Stanley County, SD, Sully County, SD, Walworth County, SD

323 
WWUS73 KABR 060150
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
850 PM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048-061000-
/O.CAN.KABR.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240406T0300Z/
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0008.240406T1200Z-240407T0400Z/
Corson-Campbell-Walworth-Dewey-Potter-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Jones-
Lyman-
Including the cities of Kennebec, McIntosh, Herreid, Isabel, Fort
Pierre, Gettysburg, Onida, Pierre, Murdo, and Mobridge
850 PM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024 /750 PM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ TO 11 PM 
CDT /10 PM MDT/ SATURDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY THIS EVENING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected on Saturday.

* WHERE...Hughes, Jones, Lyman, Stanley, Sully, Campbell, Corson, 
  Dewey, Potter, and Walworth Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ to 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MNZ039-046-SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-036-037-051-061000-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0008.240406T1200Z-240407T0400Z/
Traverse-Big Stone-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-Edmunds-Day-
Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Hyde-Hand-Buffalo-
Including the cities of Ortonville, Sisseton, Ipswich, Miller,
Hayti, Clark, Milbank, Aberdeen, Clear Lake, Redfield, Fort
Thompson, Highmore, Faulkton, Wheaton, Eureka, Britton,
Watertown, and Webster
850 PM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM CDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of west central Minnesota and central, north 
  central, and northeast South Dakota.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 11 PM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

TMT

853 
WWUS73 KABR 060913
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
413 AM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-061715-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0008.240406T1200Z-240407T0400Z/
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-
Roberts-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-
Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-
Lyman-Buffalo-
Including the cities of Mobridge, Clear Lake, Wheaton, Webster,
Clark, Ipswich, Ortonville, Highmore, Sisseton, Faulkton, Fort
Thompson, Watertown, Eureka, Kennebec, Milbank, Pierre, Miller,
Aberdeen, Gettysburg, Herreid, Murdo, Onida, Britton, Hayti,
Isabel, Fort Pierre, Redfield, and McIntosh
413 AM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024 /313 AM MDT Sat Apr 6 2024/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of west central Minnesota and central, north 
  central, and northeast South Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Parkin

393 
WWUS73 KABR 061628
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1128 AM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-070400-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-240407T0400Z/
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-
Roberts-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-
Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-
Lyman-Buffalo-
Including the cities of Fort Thompson, McIntosh, Ortonville,
Britton, Kennebec, Sisseton, Clark, Isabel, Onida, Murdo,
Wheaton, Ipswich, Gettysburg, Milbank, Miller, Highmore, Clear
Lake, Redfield, Fort Pierre, Pierre, Herreid, Eureka, Webster,
Mobridge, Aberdeen, Watertown, Faulkton, and Hayti
1128 AM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024 /1028 AM MDT Sat Apr 6 2024/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of west central Minnesota and central, north 
  central, and northeast South Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Wise

422 
WWUS73 KABR 070355
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1055 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-070500-
/O.EXP.KABR.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-240407T0400Z/
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-
Roberts-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-
Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-
Lyman-Buffalo-
Including the cities of Sisseton, Clear Lake, Milbank, Pierre,
Miller, Murdo, Onida, McIntosh, Hayti, Isabel, Aberdeen,
Mobridge, Clark, Highmore, Watertown, Kennebec, Wheaton,
Ortonville, Redfield, Fort Pierre, Ipswich, Webster, Herreid,
Fort Thompson, Britton, Faulkton, Gettysburg, and Eureka
1055 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024 /955 PM MDT Sat Apr 6 2024/

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING...

While still blustery at times tonight, winds have decreased below 
advisory criteria.

$$

Dorn

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southeast winds, gusting to 40+ mph, starting late this morning
  across central South Dakota, then expanding across the CWA
  Saturday and Sunday. A Wind Advisory is in effect today for
  central South Dakota.

- Elevated fire danger across the eastern CWA Saturday afternoon
  into Saturday evening. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued.

- On and off rain showers are expected Saturday through Monday. The
  chance of rainfall exceeding a quarter inch is high (60-95%)
  across the region. The chances of exceeding a half inch are more
  limited to western/south central South Dakota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1119 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

No notable changes planned to the today period forecast. Wind
Advisory remains in place and the Red Flag Warning for
Corson/Dewey still begins at 1 PM CDT today. Will see how
impactful the incoming mid/high level clouds can be on high
temperatures, given current readings that are a good 5 to 10
degrees warmer than this time yesterday.

UPDATE Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 413 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

An upper level ridge will be over the central part of the country
today. This ridge will get pushed east tonight as a strong trough
tracks from the west coast to the Rockies. The main low with the
trough will be accompanied by some fairly strong shortwave energy as
it begins to swing over the Central Plains on Saturday. The
strongest energy during the day looks to only reach Nebraska, but
some leading energy will reach the western half of South Dakota.

At the surface, the region be between high pressure to the east and
low pressure over the Rockies today. Will see a fairly tight
pressure gradient develop over the western half of South Dakota,
with southeasterly winds gusting in excess of 40 mph at times from
late this morning through the evening hours. A Wind Advisory has
been issued for this time period for central South Dakota. The
gradient remains tight as the low to the west reaches the western
high plains tonight. Windy conditions will continue tonight, but
right now look to diminish enough to remain below advisory criteria.
The low to the west will swing from eastern Colorado to western
Nebraska on Saturday. Will see rain spread over the western half of
South Dakota, especially during the afternoon hours. Winds will
again be pretty strong, especially across the eastern CWA where
southeasterly winds will gust in excess of 45 mph. With the rain not
reaching that area, relative humidity values will be somewhat low
(30 to 35 percent). These low humidity values combined with the
strong winds will result in very high to extreme fire danger.
Therefore, have issued a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday afternoon
and evening from the James River Valley eastward.

High temperatures today will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Highs on
Saturday will be in the mid 50s to the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 413 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

An omega block will be situated over eastern two thirds of the CONUS
through the weekend and into early next week. By nature, this block
will be very slow to move eastward. The western low of the low-high-
low block will very slowly move over our area on Sunday and linger
nearly into Tuesday. The stacked system appears to be able to pull
gulf moisture. Forcing Saturday night is initially strong with well
coupled frontogenesis and upper level forcing. The pressure gradient
also remains very tight with wind gusts in excess of 45 mph
continuing through the day Sunday. However, almost all models show
the system weakening with streams of dry air rotating around the low
later Sunday through Monday. This will probably lend to more on-and-
off shower activity versus widespread persistent rain through the
time frame. Blended model guidance probability of precipitation
exceeding 0.25" is quite high (60-95%) across the region. However,
probability of exceeding an inch drops to less than 20% for all
areas. P-type is predominately rain, although a rain-snow mix is
possible as cooler air gets mixed in on the backside of the low
pressure system. Chances of measurable snowfall are quite low, with
the current ensemble 90th percentile generally not exceeding 0.5"
for any particular location.

The low pressure system finally exits and a more progressive pattern
returns by the second half of the work week. Temperatures return to
above normal and mainly dry conditions are expected. That said,
while there is no model consensus at this point, they do all show
weak waves of energy which could bring brief, light precip to the
region during the later half of the work week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Gusty southeast
surface winds are developing throughout and west of the James River
valley and will continue tonight and Saturday. These blustery
winds will expand to include northeast South Dakota and west
central Minnesota on Saturday. The strongest winds today will
occur across central South Dakota, where gusts in excess of 40
knots are likely. Low level wind shear will occur across portions
of central into northeast South Dakota tonight. The strongest
winds on Saturday are expected to be concentrated across northeast
South Dakota and west central Minnesota, where gusts in excess of
40 knots are possible. Rain shower chances start to increase at
the KPIR terminal between 21Z-00Z Saturday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for SDZ006>008-011-018>023.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003-
     004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for SDZ003-015.

MN...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Serr
AVIATION...Dorn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
421 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

MNZ039-046-SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-036-037-051-060930-
Traverse-Big Stone-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-Edmunds-Day-
Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Hyde-Hand-Buffalo-
421 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Elevated fire danger will occur on Saturday as southeasterly winds
gusting in excess of 45 mph combine with low relative humidity
values.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048-060930-
Corson-Campbell-Walworth-Dewey-Potter-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Jones-
Lyman-
421 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024 /321 AM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota and
north central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Elevated fire danger will occur this afternoon and evening as
southeasterly winds gusting in excess of 40 mph combine with low
relative humidity values.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Parkin