Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
308 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms late
  this afternoon into tonight. The main threats with the strongest
  storms will be wind gusts in excess of 70 mph and large hail, but
  a tornado is also possible.

- Tuesday will be hot and muggy. A Heat Advisory has been issued
  for some areas along and west of the James River Valley for
  the afternoon and early evening hours.

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms Tuesday
  afternoon across central South Dakota, and Marginal Risk
  (level 1 of 5) across eastern South Dakota and west central
  Minnesota. The main threat with the strongest storms will be large
  hail and strong wind gusts.

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) across east central SD for
  severe storms on Wednesday afternoon and evening. The main threats
  will be large hail and strong winds.

- Elevated smoke from Canadian and western wildfires will continue
  to result in a milky sky with filtered sunshine.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

An upper level trough and some decent shortwave energy will track
across the CWA this evening. A more zonal flow pattern sets up
overnight into Tuesday morning before another shortwave trough
tracks across the area Tuesday afternoon and evening.

At the surface, a frontal boundary extending from southwest to
northeast across South Dakota will align with the upper level
shortwave energy to become the focus for thunderstorm development
this evening into the early overnight hours. Instability will be
fairly strong across the east early this evening, with 1500-3000
J/kg of MUCAPE, along with bulk shear values of 35 to 45 knots.
However, as we approach the 03Z time frame, will see a broader area
of 2000-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE set up across all but the far
northwestern CWA, and it will be aligned with 35 to 60 knots of bulk
shear. This may aid in getting storms going and keeping them going
longer. SPC has highlighted almost the entire area with a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 5) for tonight, with the strongest storms having a
high chance of producing large hail and wind gusts in excess of 70
mph. Cannot rule out the potential for tornadic activity as well.
The storms look to exit the area after midnight, with a respite in
precipitation late tonight through the mid afternoon hours on
Tuesday. Tuesday will see high temperatures and dewpoints across the
area, with some locations along and west of the James River Valley
likely to see heat indices exceed 100 degrees. Therefore, have
issued a Heat Advisory, mainly along the James River Valley and the
southwestern CWA for Tuesday afternoon into the early evening hours.
Another frontal boundary will reach central South Dakota late
Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. MUCAPE values across parts of
that area will reach the 2500-3500 J/kg range, along with bulk shear
of 40 to 60 knots. SPC has highlighted central South Dakota with a
Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather for this time period.
CAMS are indicating the storms will be more scattered in nature, but
there will be a threat of large hail and strong wind gusts with the
stronger storms.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 60s. High temperatures on
Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Lows Tuesday night will
be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Wednesday starts off with a healthy looking shortwave trough passing
eastward into the Dakotas. By 18Z Thursday, the trough/upper low is
over MN with potential for this to become a bit closed off as it
continues moving east/southeast towards the Great Lakes. At the
surface, a low/surface trough extends north to south across the CWA
and also moves eastward through the day. Plenty of instability to
work with as this system move though, and it appears we'll be
setting the stage to strong/severe storms across the region,
depending on when exactly the best surface/mid level features move
through and coincide with peak heating. Will maintain generally 40-
60% precipitation chances Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Surface high pressure looks to follow this system Thursday afternoon
into Saturday, which should provide for dry conditions during this
time period. Off and on slight chances (20%) return to the forecast
at the end of the period as the High Plains ridge flattens some, and
allows for ill-timed weak waves/fronts to move through, offering low
confidence on placement and timing of any potential precip-producing
systems.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
across central South Dakota during the late afternoon/early
evening hours, then track eastward during the evening and early
overnight hours before exiting the region to the east. Periods of
MVFR vsbys will be possible with the thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail across the area through midday Tuesday.
Elevated wildfire smoke will remain over the region through the
TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     Tuesday for SDZ006-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Parkin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
332 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-300845-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
332 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 /232 AM MDT Mon Jul 29 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe storms are expected to develop around north central
SD late this afternoon then spread south and east. Large hail, strong
winds, and even a tornado or two are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Confidence is low, but there is the potential for strong to severe
storms Tuesday and Wednesday in the afternoon and evening. Strong
winds and large hail would be the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible late this afternoon across central SD.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
555 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     Hail             Okaton                  43.89N 100.89W
07/29/2024  M1.75 Inch       Jones              SD   Public

            Broke a window on the house.

&&

KS

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