Wind Advisory 43, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1144 AM MDT Mon Oct 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1007 AM MDT Mon Oct 28 2024

 - Fall storm approaches Monday and Tuesday, with chances for rain
   and mountain snow across the far north and northwest Monday
   evening through Tuesday afternoon and strong winds across the
   state on Tuesday. High Wind Watch in effect for the Northeast Highlands,
   Raton Pass, Union County, South Central and Southwest
   Mountains.

 - Near-record to record high temperatures across central and
   eastern areas Monday.

 - Freezing temperatures across western and central areas Tuesday
   night and most areas Wednesday night behind the fall storm.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Record highs will be threatened for central and eastern areas one
last day today, while rain and mountain show showers will exist
Monday evening into Tuesday afternoon in northwest NM. Strong
southwest winds will exist Tuesday afternoon across much of central
and northeast NM, with gusts up to 60mph possible in some areas.
Freezing temperatures are likely across the state Tuesday and
Wednesday night. Rain may return to eastern NM late this week and
into the weekend as another fall storm system is on the horizon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 28 2024

A changing weather pattern slides over NM today as a segment of the
polar jet digs further through the Pacific Coastline. Abundant cloud
cover from the remnant mid to upper level moisture from what was
once TC Kristy in the EPAC streams over NM today, clearing from west
to east thru the day. Mountain wave activity along the Sangre de
Cristo Mts is evident in satellite imagery, and erratically placed
westerly wind gusts will be possible along and just east of the
ridgeline this morning. The troughing pattern spreading over the
western CONUS brings lowering pressure heights across NM, lowering
temperatures through the western and northern portions of the
forecast area. Downsloping southwesterly winds this afternoon will
keep high temperatures warm and consistent with Sunday's readings,
if not a degree or two warmer. Thus, 80s to near 90F is forecast for
Albuquerque to Socorro and much of the eastern plains.

Precipitation begins to spread over the Four Corners region late
today, with orographically driven rain and mountain snow favored
north of the NM/CO border in the San Juan Mountains. But a few light
showers will be possible over the Chuska Mountains to Farmington.
Precipitation spreads to lower elevations and intensifies through
the night into Thursday morning as a 110 to 120kt H3 jetmax rounds
the southern portion of the upper level trough. Precipitation then
wanes mid-to-late morning Tuesday as the jetmax ejects out over
north-central NM and then CO. High winds then become the main hazard
Tuesday afternoon with 50-60kt H7 winds stretching from the
southwestern mountains in Catron County to the south-central
mountains northward to along the Central and Northeastern Highlands.
The combination of deep layer mixing Tuesday afternoon ahead of the
Pacific cold front and mountain wave activity over the mountains
will threaten these high winds reaching the surface in these areas
Tuesday afternoon. The High Wind Watch has been expanded to the
aforementioned areas, as well as Union and Harding Counties. Blown
down burned or dead trees within recent burn scars near Ruidoso will
be a main threat, alongside dangerous crosswinds on area highways
from Las Vegas to Raton to Clayton. Some patchy blowing dust will
also be possible, especially within the Rio Grande Valley from
Socorro to Albuquerque where future Wind Advisories are likely to be
issued. The Pacific cold front then swoops in west to east across
the area Tuesday night bringing in much colder air to begin the Long
Term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 28 2024

High winds will be tapering off Tuesday evening as the surface
becomes decoupled due to radiative cooling, though some gusts of 25-
35kt may still exist after sundown in the south central mountains.
The ample upper level trough responsible for the high winds will
continue to push eastward through Tuesday evening into Wednesday,
with the axis moving almost directly along the CO/NM border. With
that, pressure heights will begin to fall Tuesday night, and with
mainly clear skies (excluding the Tusas Mountains) and calmer winds
across the region, additional radiative cooling will lead to some
western and northern areas reaching the freezing level. A brief
period of gusty west winds will likely exist through the central
highlands eastward along I-40, as a pocket of stronger 700mb winds
will progress over the area. 25-35kt gusts are possible through
this. As the upper trough axis moves east of the state through late
Wednesday, large scale cold air advection will continue to drive
down temperatures to perhaps the lowest we have seen this season
thus far. Several areas will likely see their first true fall
freeze, and thus freeze highlights will almost certainly be needed
for a majority of the state Wednesday night.

As the upper trough moves away from NM, zonal flow and weak ridging
over the state will allow temperatures to rise slightly, though
still remaining slightly below average for Halloween (widespread
highs in the 50s and 60s). Rain chances begin to return Friday
afternoon as a surface high pressure over the central Plains will
direct some Gulf moisture into west TX and east NM. Models are in
decent agreement on Friday afternoon-Saturday afternoon being the
best chance of showers and storms across eastern and southeastern
NM.

Almost concurrently with the Friday showers, another Pacific trough
will likely push into western CONUS through the weekend, though its
timing, strength, and effects to NM are still in question. GFS/GEFS
solutions are pushing this trough across CONUS faster than other
solutions, with the axis being over NM by midday Sunday, whereas the
ECMWF/EPS solutions still slate the trough over NV at that same
time. In addition, EPS solutions favor a closed low forming over the
Baja Peninsula, whereas the GEFS pushes the trough clean across NM.
Needless to say, this causes vastly different solutions for the Land
of Enchantment. With the EPS closed low, moisture would be funneled
into NM with widespread precipitation possible, and the NBM is
leaning towards this solution slightly. Left widespread 30-40% PoPs
across the state at the beginning of next week, though it should be
noted these could change drastically with each forecast update.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1007 AM MDT Mon Oct 28 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, although with
a lowering of VFR cigs near the end of the TAF period at KFMN and
KGUP as a cold front moves in from AZ. Gusty southwest winds are
forecast today, but winds throughout the column will be on the
uptrend overnight into Tuesday, resulting in the development of
some low level wind shear overnight and strong southwest winds
materializing at the surface after 18Z Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Breezy to locally windy southwest winds pickup this afternoon as sky
conditions steadily clear west to east. These southwesterly winds
peak in intensity Tuesday afternoon with peak gusts of 55 to 60mph
possible over the high terrain of Catron County, northeastward thru
the Northeast Highlands and Northeastern Plains. Elevated to locally
critical fire weather conditions will be possible, but minimum
humidity staying at or above 20 percent will be the limiting
meteorological factor Tuesday afternoon. ERC's are also still fairly
low across northeastern NM suggesting fuels are not receptive to
rapid fire spread. The same cannot be said of the Rio Grande Valley
and Sandia/Manzano and Gallinas Mountain zones where drier
antecedent conditions are present. Southwest winds are not as strong
here and humidity is also not meeting critical fire weather
criteria, but will need to still monitor forecast updates here.

Winds taper off Tuesday night as a Pacific cold front brings a
westerly wind shift and much colder air into the forecast area.
Freezing temperatures will be widespread across the northwestern
half of NM. Well below normal temperatures and lessening winds will
shunt the fire weather threat Wednesday. Warmer temperatures, and
modest southerly winds will bring in higher moisture ends the work
week Thursday and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  72  48  56  31 /  10  40  50  10
Dulce...........................  69  39  56  23 /   5  60  80  20
Cuba............................  71  43  58  27 /   0  20  40   5
Gallup..........................  72  42  54  21 /   0  20  30  10
El Morro........................  72  40  54  25 /   0  10  20   5
Grants..........................  76  40  59  24 /   0   5  10   0
Quemado.........................  75  43  59  25 /   0   5  10   0
Magdalena.......................  79  51  66  30 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  74  43  60  25 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  79  42  64  22 /   0  10  10   0
Glenwood........................  83  51  68  33 /   0  10  10   0
Chama...........................  65  37  52  21 /   0  50  80  20
Los Alamos......................  71  47  61  32 /   0  10  30   5
Pecos...........................  71  43  63  30 /   0   0  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  67  41  57  26 /   0  10  30   5
Red River.......................  58  37  48  20 /   0  10  40   0
Angel Fire......................  64  34  55  19 /   0   0  30   0
Taos............................  70  39  60  25 /   0  10  20   5
Mora............................  71  42  61  25 /   0   0  20   0
Espanola........................  77  43  69  29 /   0  10  20   5
Santa Fe........................  71  46  64  32 /   0   0  20   0
Santa Fe Airport................  75  43  67  30 /   0   5  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  80  52  71  37 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  82  49  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  84  47  75  36 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  82  48  72  36 /   0   5   0   0
Belen...........................  85  45  76  34 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  83  47  73  35 /   0   5  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  84  45  75  33 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  83  48  74  35 /   0   5   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  84  46  75  35 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  79  51  70  36 /   0   5  10   0
Rio Rancho......................  82  48  72  35 /   0   5   5   0
Socorro.........................  88  50  78  37 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  74  48  65  31 /   0   0   5   0
Tijeras.........................  77  49  68  33 /   0   0   5   0
Edgewood........................  77  42  68  29 /   0   0   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  79  39  70  27 /   0   0   5   0
Clines Corners..................  75  45  66  30 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  77  47  68  30 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  77  45  68  31 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  80  55  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  74  52  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  73  47  65  30 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  76  40  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  80  42  70  31 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  75  44  66  29 /   0   0   5   0
Clayton.........................  80  52  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  77  46  70  34 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  85  49  79  41 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  83  48  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  84  53  80  42 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  88  53  83  45 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  89  56  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  84  49  81  43 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  92  54  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  87  53  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  84  54  75  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
NMZ208-226>231.

&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...11