Wind Advisory 22, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1149 PM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

Windy conditions are continuing ahead of the system moving in
late tonight. Look for this system to bring showers across mostly
western and central portions of New Mexico with rain/snow expected
at the lower elevations and straight snow in the mountains. To
the east, conditions are expected to stay dry enough that continue
strong winds will create critical fire weather conditions for
Saturday. Otherwise, attentions will turn towards the mid-week
where a new system will once again bring chances of showers across
the area by Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

Model agreement is still on schedule to see the expected system
move in later tonight alongside its associate cold front. For now,
winds still remain gusty across the majority of New Mexico with a
Wind Advisory still present until 9 pm tonight. To our east, the
combination of these winds and dry conditions already present has
created potential critical fire weather across the eastern border.
A Red Flag Warning is set to continue until 9 pm for those areas.
Once the front has move through, shower will likely follow late
Friday night into early Saturday morning. Snow will be likely for
all locations above 6,000 feet. However, latest model runs are
continuing to trend much snow level than what was initially
expected. Base off the latest 700mb temperatures, snow-levels may
drop down into the 5,000 to 4,000 foot range allowing for better
chances of accumulations at the lower levels. Currently a Winter
Weather is issued for the Tusas Mountains and Chama where snow
accumulation up at the peaks could reach near a foot of snow.
However, lower areas will be closer to 1 to 3 inches with low
elevation areas outside the advisory looking at and inch or two at
best. Regardless, look for these shower to be confided to the
western and central portions of New Mexico, which will leave the
eastern boarder dry once again.

Heading into Saturday and the weekend, models look to see showers
tapper off by the afternoon hours with the system ejecting
northeast into Nebraska. This will line up our eastern half
perfectly with a strong upper-level jet for the afternoon and
evening hours. Latest trends continue to see this jet produce
strong winds down at the surface with locations easily reaching
the 30 to 40 mph range with gusts near 55 mph. At ridge line, look
for these winds to be further strengthened with gust nearing 65
mph not out of the question. Given the potential, a High Wind
Warning has been issue for most of the eastern half of New Mexico.
Added to this will be continue dry conditions across the eastern
plains, which will start another round of critical fire weather
for the area. Look for a Red Flag Warning to also be present until
late Saturday night. Winds can stay rather strong at the ridge
line through the overnight hours, but otherwise should quite by
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

System is expected to take a strong negative tilt and eject to the
northeast leaving cooler air and mostly freezing temperatures
across all areas for what remain of the weekend. Another weather
system is expected to follow behind and work it's way down to the
Las Vegas area by late Monday afternoon. It does look like there
will be some moisture with this system, but there is still some
uncertainty present that may limited the moisture to southern
Colorado on given the current track of the upper low.

By Tuesday evening we should have some better precipitation
chances as the center of the low is expected to track over
southern New Mexico and provide decent wrap around to the central
and northern portions of our area. These better chances of
precipitation are expected to continue through Tuesday night as
the system slowly tracks southeast into Texas.

Weak high pressure is expected to return to the area for the
remainder of the extended and should lead to some quite weather
through the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

A cold front is currently racing eastward across western NM, and
will soon impact ABQ and AEG with a gusty westerly wind. An
Airport Weather Warning remains in effect until 07Z, though will
be considering an extension. Light rain and snow has developed
behind the front. MVFR cigs and vsby will be possible across much
of northern and western NM. The precipitation will largely not
make it past the Central Mt Chain due to strong downsloping, but
snow will linger over the northern mtns through much of the
morning hours. Mt obscurations will be possible. By late morning,
strong westerly winds will develop areawide. Gusts to 50kt are
expected across much of eastern NM today. BLDU will be possible,
especially at KROW, though this will heavily depend on the wind
direction.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 356 AM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY...

Strong winds associated with an approaching weather system, in
conjunction with low RH values will lead to critical Fire Weather
conditions across much of the lower elevations today, and again on
Saturday. Given northwest NM may see some moisture tonight, the
concerns for critical Fire Weather are much less on Saturday than
today. Winds are expected to be stronger in the east tomorrow in
line with a stronger surface gradient and good cross barrier flow.
Given little to no moisture in the south central or eastern NM
area, Red Flag Warnings have been issued for these areas. Sunday
we'll continue to monitor for critical Fire Weather as RH values
will still be quite low in the east, but winds are expected to be
more relaxed by the afternoon time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  31  49  27  56 /  60  20   0   0
Dulce...........................  21  43  18  52 /  90  50   0   0
Cuba............................  25  42  23  51 /  80  40   0   0
Gallup..........................  23  45  20  55 /  80  20   0   0
El Morro........................  22  40  21  50 /  80  30   0   0
Grants..........................  23  45  20  56 /  60  20   0   0
Quemado.........................  23  43  22  54 /  60  20   0   0
Magdalena.......................  30  46  28  58 /  20  20   0   0
Datil...........................  25  41  24  55 /  40  20   0   0
Reserve.........................  25  51  20  62 /  60  10   0   0
Glenwood........................  34  54  31  64 /  50  10   0   0
Chama...........................  19  37  13  46 /  90  50   0   0
Los Alamos......................  30  41  27  52 /  60  20   0   0
Pecos...........................  27  42  26  53 /  40  20   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  32  36  26  46 /  60  30   0   0
Red River.......................  21  33  14  44 /  60  40   0   0
Angel Fire......................  19  32  15  43 /  50  40   0   0
Taos............................  26  42  18  52 /  60  30   0   0
Mora............................  26  40  24  51 /  30  40   0   0
Espanola........................  33  50  27  60 /  60  20   0   0
Santa Fe........................  30  43  26  54 /  50  20   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  31  47  26  58 /  40  10   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  36  50  33  61 /  40  10   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  36  52  31  63 /  30  10   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  36  54  30  65 /  30   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  36  52  31  63 /  40   5   0   0
Belen...........................  36  55  29  66 /  20   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  36  53  31  63 /  40  10   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  35  54  28  65 /  30  10   0   0
Corrales........................  36  53  31  63 /  40  10   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  36  54  30  65 /  20  10   0   0
Placitas........................  34  48  31  58 /  40  10   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  36  52  31  62 /  40  10   0   0
Socorro.........................  39  58  33  69 /  10  10   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  30  42  29  53 /  40  10   0   0
Tijeras.........................  31  45  29  56 /  40  10   0   0
Edgewood........................  30  47  28  56 /  30  10   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  29  48  26  58 /  30  10   0   0
Clines Corners..................  26  44  24  53 /  20   5   0   0
Mountainair.....................  30  46  27  56 /  30  10   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  31  47  27  57 /  20   5   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  39  54  32  61 /  10   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  33  47  30  55 /  10   5   0   0
Capulin.........................  34  47  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  34  49  28  61 /   5   0   0   0
Springer........................  36  49  29  61 /   5   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  31  45  28  56 /  10   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  44  56  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  38  51  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  43  58  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  38  53  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  44  59  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  46  61  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  46  63  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  42  59  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  48  67  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  40  58  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  38  58  31  66 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ229-
231>238.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ104-106-
123-125-126.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ210.

High Wind Warning from 3 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ223-226-
239-240.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...34

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
853 PM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 W Farmington          36.75N 108.23W
04/05/2024  M58 MPH          San Juan           NM   ASOS

            ASOS station KFMN Farmington Airport.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
951 PM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WSW Allison           35.52N 108.80W
04/05/2024  M60 MPH          McKinley           NM   ASOS

            ASOS station KGUP Gallup Airport.

&&

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