Wind Advisory 16, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1123 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024

An unusually wet winter weather pattern is forecast during the
latter half of this week through Monday with widespread rain and
snow as a strong low pressure system stalls over Arizona while
drawing rich moisture and a couple backdoor cold fronts into the
forecast area. A few to around 20 inches of snow are forecast in
the mountains through Friday night, with the potential for a few
to 12 additional inches Saturday through Monday. A few to 6 inches
of snow will be possible in some lower elevation locations as low
as 6500 feet Thursday night through Friday night, with the
potential for a few to several more along the east slopes of the
central mountain chain early next week. There will also be very
strong east and southeast winds across central and northwest areas
late Thursday through Friday evening with many locations gusting
up to 50 mph, and Albuquerque and Grants likely reaching over 60
mph. Models depict unsettled and cool weather continuing through
much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Rain and snow showers are currently in progress across the northern
mountains and west central NM this afternoon due to a lead shortwave
moving through the region ahead of developing upper low diving south
through southern Idaho and Utah. Some of the moisture with this
shortwave has made to the central NM and the RGV in the form of
virga due to the dry low levels and dewpoint depressions of 20 to 30
degrees. Stronger 700 mb winds at the base of this shortwave has
resulted in breezy to windy conditions across central and eastern NM.

The band of rain and snow across west central NM looks to gradually
push south over the southwest and Gila Mountains before dissipating
after midnight as the core of the upper low dives into southern
Nevada and northern Arizona. After midnight tonight, attention turns
to far northeast NM as a backdoor front enters that part of the
state. Snow and rain showers will develop behind the front, with
snow and patchy fog and deteriorating travel conditions at Raton
Pass and the northern Sangre De Cristo Mountains before sunrise
Thursday. The Winter Storm Watch for the Sangre De Cristo Mountains
and Raton Pass has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning beginning
at 5 AM. The backdoor front will be through northeast NM Thursday
morning. For the first half of Thursday, rain and snow will be
focused behind the backdoor front across far northeast NM including
Raton Pass and Johnson and Bartlett Mesas while the upper low begins
to park itself near Las Vegas, NV.

Come midday Thursday, the backdoor front across northeast NM will be
reinforced thanks to a shortwave moving east across the upper
Midwest. Higher elevation snow and lower elevation rain will expand
south and west behind this reinforced backdoor front. Come Thursday
evening upper level divergence, CVA, and WAA ahead of the parked
upper low south of Las Vegas, NV will result in an area of rain and
higher elevation snow to develop across western NM. The upper low
will also help to pull the backdoor front through the gaps of the
central mountain chain with a strong and damaging east wind
developing across the eastern part of the ABQ metro around 8 to 9 PM
based on the current high res guidance. Gusts of up to 70 mph are
possible Thursday night into Friday. Have kept the High Wind
Watch in place this afternoon, but this will surely be upgraded by
the overnight shift if trends continue. The backdoor front will
reach the Arizona border by sunrise Friday. The region will still be
under an area of upper level divergence ahead of the upper low (at
this point meandering somewhere in southern CA) on Friday. This will
allow lower elevation rain and highland and mountain snow to
continue. Two areas of focused coverage and higher accumulations
will exist, western areas along the Continental Divide and the east
slopes of the central mountain chain, due to the upslope component
of the east wind. Meanwhile, the potentially damaging east canyon
winds with gusts of up to 60 to 70 mph will continue across the
eastern ABQ metro downwind of Tijeras Canyon. East winds gusts of 60
to 70 mph will also develop near Grant due to the winds funneling
between the Zuni Mountains and Mount Taylor (Milan Canyon). Thus, a
High Wind Watch has been issued for the West Central Highlands
including Grants during the day Friday. This complex upper low will
slowly meander and the unsettled weather will continue well into the
Long Term. Find out more below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024

The cutoff upper level low pressure system is forecast to
gradually fill/weaken while remaining over AZ Friday night through
Tuesday. A continuous stream of moisture will feed into the
system from the southeast over NM keeping rain and snow showers
going each period through Monday. Some models suggest some drier
air could begin entraining into the system Monday night and
Tuesday, but it could happen sooner or later, since models are
notorious for not handling cutoff low pressure systems vary well.
At this time we have moderate to high confidence on widespread
snow impacts lingering through Friday night, with 3-12 inches of
snow accumulation in the mountains (locally up to 18 on higher
peaks) and a few to 6 inches at lower elevations from Clines
Corners to Raton. Then, we moderate to low confidence on a few to
4 inches of snow accumulation in the mountains each 12-hr period
Saturday through Monday. The GFS suggests another backdoor cold
front could surge into the forecast area from the northeast Sunday
night and Monday potentially producing another round of snow at
lower elevations along the east slopes of the central mountain
chain and potentially onto the east central and northeast plains.
High temperatures are forecast to remain well below normal each
day, but there could be a decent warming trend areawide Tuesday if
the upper low continues to fill and entrain drier air as
currently projected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Low level moisture will result in the development and expansion of
MVFR cigs across western NM, but are only forecast to impact KGUP.
Elsewhere, high probabilities of VFR conditions persisting
overnight, although MVFR cigs are forecast to move into KLVS
behind a backdoor cold front after sunrise. The backdoor front
will result in a wind shift at KTCC later Thursday morning and may
bring in MVFR cigs as well. The backdoor cold front will blast
through the central mountain chain Thursday evening and bring
strong east winds to KSAF and KABQ. However, dangerous east
canyon winds are forecast at KABQ, although the strongest winds
likely won't hit until after the end of the TAF period, when gusts
to between 50-60kts are likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024

After critical fire weather conditions across southeast NM,
dissipate this evening, no critical fire weather conditions are
expected through mid next week as a cutoff upper low meanders across
Arizona providing several round of precipitation to the region.

Rain and high elevation snow showers becoming more widespread
Thursday night into Friday as the upper low parks itself over
Arizona. A strong backdoor cold front will push through the gaps of
the central mountain chain Thursday night, creating strong to
damaging winds in eastern Albuquerque Thursday night through Friday
and for Grants during the day Friday, with gusty east winds
elsewhere across northwest, west central and the middle Rio Grande
Valley. Significant snow accumulations are expected above 8,000 feet
with minor accumulations between 6,000 and 8,000 feet Thursday night
through early Saturday. Winds decrease Saturday, but the unsettled
weather will seasonably cool temps and scattered rain/snow showers
may linger through as long as mid next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  29  53  38  53 /   5  20  80  40
Dulce...........................  27  48  30  49 /  40  60  90  60
Cuba............................  26  47  32  44 /  40  20  80  40
Gallup..........................  22  47  34  46 /  60  20  80  70
El Morro........................  24  45  33  41 /  60  40  70  70
Grants..........................  21  50  32  42 /  40  20  80  50
Quemado.........................  24  48  34  46 /  80  40  50  90
Magdalena.......................  30  51  36  46 /  40  20  80  60
Datil...........................  26  48  33  43 /  60  30  60  80
Reserve.........................  24  54  30  49 /  40  30  60  90
Glenwood........................  35  58  40  54 /  10  40  50  90
Chama...........................  23  42  25  41 /  30  70  90  70
Los Alamos......................  31  48  32  43 /  30  20  90  50
Pecos...........................  27  49  29  39 /  20  40  90  70
Cerro/Questa....................  31  41  31  39 /  30  60  90  70
Red River.......................  21  35  20  32 /  40  70  90  80
Angel Fire......................  16  37  16  33 /  50  70  90  80
Taos............................  25  46  25  44 /  30  50  90  70
Mora............................  25  44  25  34 /  20  50  80  70
Espanola........................  30  55  31  50 /  30  20  70  50
Santa Fe........................  30  50  33  45 /  30  30  80  70
Santa Fe Airport................  30  53  33  47 /  20  20  60  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  36  56  40  45 /  30  10  80  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  34  57  39  48 /  30  10  50  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  33  59  38  50 /  30  10  40  50
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  34  57  39  49 /  20  10  40  50
Belen...........................  30  60  37  52 /  30  10  60  50
Bernalillo......................  35  57  39  49 /  20  10  60  50
Bosque Farms....................  30  59  37  50 /  30  10  50  50
Corrales........................  33  57  38  49 /  20  10  50  50
Los Lunas.......................  30  59  37  50 /  30  10  50  50
Placitas........................  34  54  39  44 /  30  10  80  60
Rio Rancho......................  34  56  39  49 /  20  10  50  50
Socorro.........................  35  61  40  55 /  20  10  70  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  32  50  35  38 /  30  10  90  60
Tijeras.........................  32  53  36  41 /  30  10  90  60
Edgewood........................  30  53  33  39 /  20  10  80  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  25  55  30  40 /  20  10  80  60
Clines Corners..................  26  51  26  35 /  20  20  80  70
Mountainair.....................  29  53  32  40 /  40   5  90  60
Gran Quivira....................  28  55  30  42 /  20   5  90  60
Carrizozo.......................  36  59  36  48 /  10   0  80  50
Ruidoso.........................  33  53  29  39 /  10   5  70  60
Capulin.........................  29  38  25  33 /  60  70  80  80
Raton...........................  29  42  26  37 /  70  80  80  80
Springer........................  31  45  28  37 /  40  60  70  70
Las Vegas.......................  27  47  26  34 /  10  40  80  80
Clayton.........................  35  45  30  41 /  20  40  40  70
Roy.............................  31  47  30  37 /  20  50  70  80
Conchas.........................  34  58  35  43 /   5  20  60  80
Santa Rosa......................  33  60  32  41 /   5  20  70  80
Tucumcari.......................  33  60  33  44 /   5  10  40  70
Clovis..........................  38  64  36  46 /   0   0  40  80
Portales........................  36  66  34  48 /   0   0  40  70
Fort Sumner.....................  34  64  34  45 /   5   5  60  70
Roswell.........................  42  71  44  49 /   0   0  60  70
Picacho.........................  37  65  35  43 /   0   5  60  50
Elk.............................  38  62  33  42 /   0   0  50  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ206-210.

Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through late Friday
night for NMZ202-206-211-212-221-223.

High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
afternoon for NMZ207.

High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through late Friday night
for NMZ219.

Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Friday
night for NMZ210.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Saturday for
NMZ213>215-227.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Saturday for
NMZ228-229.

&&

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...11