Severe Thunderstorm Warning 291, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
238 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Severe weather and flash flooding threatens areas along and east of
the central mountain chain and highlands to the TX border this
afternoon and evening. Total accumulations through Sunday night
across parts of eastern NM could reach up to 2 to 4 inches, with
locally higher amounts. Meanwhile, snow will remain relegated to the
higher terrain of the northern mountains where another several
inches is possible tonight through Sunday morning. A light dusting
will again be possible along the Continental Divide and mid-
elevations between 7,500' and 9,000'. Conditions finally clear out
by Monday morning as the main storm system crosses northern NM and
exits toward the northeast. Warmer and drier weather is in the cards
for the rest of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

The 565dm H5 low is centered over AZ north of Tucson with abundant
moisture still being advected northward ahead of it over central and
eastern NM. The 12Z ABQ sounding was near or above the 90th
percentile for PWATs at 0.68". Higher low-level Gulf moisture in the
form of dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s will continue to support
the threat of heavy rains and flash flooding along and east of the
central mountain chain where a Flood Watch remains. Strong wind
shear coupled with the ample moisture continues to support the
slight risk for storms to become strong to severe in this same area
this afternoon. Already a N-S oriented line has developed over the
highlands from the Sangre de Cristo's to the south-central
mountains. A few of these cells are already producing pea to quarter
size hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. The spread of severe
weather across the eastern plains will be dependent upon how much
instability there will actually be. The bank of low clouds
persisting this morning suggest it could be limited. The western
shift in the position of the H5 low also brings the main dynamical
forcing a bit further west as well, less aligned with this area of
ample moisture over eastern NM. Nevertheless, burn scar flash
flooding over both the Hermit's Peak/Calf Canyon and Ruidoso burn
scars will be a main threat this afternoon. This line of
thunderstorm activity will slowly progress eastward over the Pecos
River Valley and the eastern plains this evening with the threat of
heavy rain shifting over the northeastern plains Sunday morning.
Will keep the Flood Watch going as is.

A secondary band of showers with embedded thunderstorms lays along
and west of the Continental Divide this hour. This area will begin
to expand back over the Rio Grande Valley later this afternoon where
another round of showers with thunderstorms is likely from Socorro
to Albuquerque and northward. Snow levels will fall again this
tonight with a light dusting or light snow along the Continental
Divide again between Gallup and Grants Sunday morning. Higher snow
accumulations of 2 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts atop the
peaks above 12,000' will be possible over the northern mountains
tonight into Sunday morning. Will keep the Winter Weather Advisory
going for the northern Sangre de Cristo Mts as is. Precipitation
chances continue over the northern mountains through Sunday as the
core of the H5 low tracks over northern NM, ejecting to the east by
Monday morning.

Conditions clear out west to east, first over west-central and
southwestern NM Sunday, then over northern and eastern NM by Monday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

The long term period beginning Monday afternoon sees conditions
clearing Monday night into Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure
builds over the region. Temperatures rebound and conditions dry out
again. A backdoor cold front does look to swing into eastern NM
Wednesday bringing a brief and minor cool down to eastern NM.
Otherwise, a return to beautiful Fall weather is on tap through most
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Widespread terminal and aviation impacts across northern and
central NM continue today and through the TAF period. An upper low
centered over central AZ is bringing bands of showers and storms
northward through central and western NM this hour. This activity
will spread over eastern NM as the lower MVFR/IFR ceilings clear
somewhat over eastern NM this afternoon. Individual thunderstorms
within longer bands will be capable of becoming strong to severe
across eastern NM as they track toward the north this afternoon
and thru the overnight period. MVFR/IFR ceilings with severe hail
and winds and a low chance for a tornado will be possible. More
sporadic breaks will be present along and west of the Rio Grande
Valley, but a band of more moderately intense thunderstorms is
expected to develop over the lower and middle Rio Grande Valley
this afternoon. This will bring temporary impacts to terminals
from KONM to KABQ to KSAF this afternoon and early evening.
Showers with embedded thunderstorms further west will begin to
lessen in coverage tonight for KFMN and KGUP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

There are no fire weather concerns across eastern NM given the
influx of abundant moisture and the threat of flash flooding there
now through Monday morning. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be
more sporadic along and west of the Rio Grande Valley during this
evening. Windy conditions will be present, but the cooler weather
and higher moisture content removes any fire weather concerns.

Conditions clear out and dry out Monday night as a ridge of high
pressure builds into the area. Temperatures rebound and humidities
fall, as do winds. Ventilation will be most poor to fair next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  44  61  36  60 /  90  60  20   0
Dulce...........................  32  61  27  58 /  80  90  60   0
Cuba............................  42  60  30  58 /  80  80  40   0
Gallup..........................  27  58  23  63 /  80  20   0   0
El Morro........................  34  58  28  62 /  70  20   0   0
Grants..........................  35  63  27  65 /  70  20  10   0
Quemado.........................  31  60  27  65 /  30  20   0   0
Magdalena.......................  44  66  36  66 /  40  20  10   0
Datil...........................  36  63  30  66 /  20  20   0   0
Reserve.........................  28  67  27  75 /  10  10   0   0
Glenwood........................  40  71  40  77 /   5  10   0   0
Chama...........................  34  55  27  54 /  80  90  70   0
Los Alamos......................  46  58  38  58 /  90  80  70   0
Pecos...........................  45  58  36  58 / 100  80  80   0
Cerro/Questa....................  38  58  32  55 /  90  80  80   0
Red River.......................  32  48  26  47 / 100  80  80   0
Angel Fire......................  30  53  25  51 / 100  90  80   0
Taos............................  39  60  32  57 /  90  90  70   0
Mora............................  37  56  30  60 / 100  90  90   0
Espanola........................  45  66  37  65 /  80  80  80   0
Santa Fe........................  48  60  38  58 /  90  80  80   0
Santa Fe Airport................  47  63  37  61 /  80  80  70   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  53  68  43  65 /  80  50  60   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  50  70  40  66 /  60  50  50   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  50  72  38  69 /  60  50  40   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  51  70  41  67 /  70  60  40   0
Belen...........................  47  72  37  68 /  60  40  30   0
Bernalillo......................  50  71  40  68 /  80  60  50   0
Bosque Farms....................  46  71  35  68 /  60  50  40   0
Corrales........................  50  72  40  68 /  70  50  50   0
Los Lunas.......................  48  72  37  68 /  60  50  30   0
Placitas........................  50  68  41  63 /  80  60  60   0
Rio Rancho......................  50  71  41  67 /  70  60  50   0
Socorro.........................  50  76  42  73 /  40  40  10   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  45  62  35  58 /  90  60  60   0
Tijeras.........................  47  64  37  60 /  80  60  60   0
Edgewood........................  43  65  32  61 /  90  60  60   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  41  66  29  63 /  80  60  60   0
Clines Corners..................  43  61  35  58 /  90  80  60   0
Mountainair.....................  44  65  34  63 /  80  60  30   0
Gran Quivira....................  45  65  35  63 /  70  70  30   0
Carrizozo.......................  49  71  44  69 /  80  50  30   0
Ruidoso.........................  45  66  43  66 /  90  40  40   0
Capulin.........................  44  55  39  61 / 100  80  70   5
Raton...........................  43  58  35  66 / 100  80  60   5
Springer........................  45  59  36  67 / 100  90  80   0
Las Vegas.......................  43  58  35  66 / 100  90  80   0
Clayton.........................  52  62  50  69 /  90  70  80  20
Roy.............................  48  58  43  66 / 100  90  90  10
Conchas.........................  53  66  48  70 / 100  90  90   5
Santa Rosa......................  52  62  45  65 / 100  90  80   5
Tucumcari.......................  53  68  50  72 /  90  70  80  20
Clovis..........................  55  69  54  74 /  70  50  70  20
Portales........................  56  70  56  75 /  60  40  60  20
Fort Sumner.....................  55  67  51  71 / 100  80  80   5
Roswell.........................  61  75  56  78 /  90  60  60   0
Picacho.........................  51  69  46  73 /  80  60  50   0
Elk.............................  48  71  44  76 /  80  50  50   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for NMZ214-215-223-226-
228>240.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Sunday for NMZ213.

&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
239 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

NMZ223-239-192115-
Central Highlands NM-Eastern Lincoln County NM-
239 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TORRANCE AND
NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM MDT...

At 239 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 23
miles northeast of Encinoso, or 25 miles southeast of Corona, moving
north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Mainly rural areas of Central Highlands and Eastern Lincoln County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3433 10546 3426 10496 3387 10518 3389 10544
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 192DEG 24KT 3399 10530

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MA