Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
639 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

The combination of an upper level disturbance and a backdoor cold
front will bring a round of showers and storms to central and
eastern NM through tonight, some of which may become strong to
severe. Another round of showers and storms is forecast Sunday
afternoon across north central and northeast NM as the disturbance
moves east across the area. A warming and drying trend is
forecast early week, but chances for showers and storms will ramp
up again Wednesday and Thursday as another disturbance moves east
across the region. A renewed warming and drying trend will begin
Friday and continue into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

The upper low is currently moving east toward the Four Corners per
the latest water vapor satellite imagery and is interacting with
low level southeast flow behind the backdoor front to provide a
favorable shear environment for a round of strong to severe
storms this afternoon, despite unfavorable instability. Latest
CAMs show a continued northeast progression of storms with
expansion of coverage going into the evening hours across
northeast NM. Areas along/north of I-40 will be favored later
today and this evening for strong to severe storms producing
locally heavy downpours, hail and occasional lightning. There is
an enhanced threat for flooding on the Hermit's Peak/Calf Canyon
burn scar late this afternoon and evening with these storms,
especially considering the 0.10-0.40" that fell on the scar
overnight through this morning.

The upper low will continue east across southern CO and northern
NM tonight through Sunday and will bring another round of
convection to north central/northeast NM after some daytime
heating. However, the shear environment will be minimal,
especially compared to today's, so any thunderstorms that develop
Sunday will likely be garden-variety.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Weak ridging will follow behind the departing upper low on
Mon/Tue, bringing a warming/drying trend. Daytime temperatures
should be back above normal most areas by Tuesday. Sufficient
moisture will linger on Mon/Tue for isolated to scattered daytime
heating triggered showers and storms, mainly over the mountains.
The combination of an approaching northern stream trough and an
approaching weak Pacific low will bring sufficient forcing and a
bump in PWATs for an increase precipitation chances Wed/Thu. This
setup will likely be wetter for areas along/east of the central
mountain chain as the northern stream trough brings a backdoor
front to aide in forcing. An upper level ridge will follow the
departing troughs on Fri/Sat, bringing a renewed warming/drying
trend with temperatures rising back above normal areawide by
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Mesoscale models depict strong to severe thunderstorms continuing
over eastern NM through much of the evening, where large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes will be possible. Late
this evening through the late night hours areas of low clouds and
some patchy fog are then forecast to produce MVFR and localized
IFR conditions east of the central mountain chain. The low clouds
will retreat from the west, ending on the far eastern plains by
late morning. Sunday, scattered to isolated showers and
thunderstorms will develop over the northern mountains by late
morning, then spread eastward across northeast NM during the
afternoon and early evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through the next
seven days. The combination of an upper level low and backdoor
front will bring good chances for wetting storms to northern and
eastern NM through tonight. Another round of wetting storms is
forecast Sunday across north central and northeast areas as the
upper low exits to the east. An upper level ridge will bring hot,
dry and unstable conditions Mon/Tue, with low chances for wetting
rain over the mountains. An upper level trough will bring back
good chances for wetting storms Wed/Thu, followed by a warming and
drying trend that will bring back hot, dry and unstable conditions
by Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  40  73  41  79 /  10  10   0   5
Dulce...........................  31  65  32  73 /  20  40  10  30
Cuba............................  35  65  37  73 /  20  20   5  20
Gallup..........................  33  71  34  77 /  10  10   0   5
El Morro........................  34  67  38  72 /   5  10   0  20
Grants..........................  33  70  34  76 /   5  10   0  10
Quemado.........................  36  69  38  74 /   0  10   0  20
Magdalena.......................  42  70  45  74 /   0  10   0  10
Datil...........................  37  67  41  72 /   0  10   0  20
Reserve.........................  33  74  35  79 /   0   5   0   5
Glenwood........................  46  79  49  83 /   0   5   0   0
Chama...........................  30  58  31  66 /  30  60  30  40
Los Alamos......................  41  62  44  70 /  50  30  10  30
Pecos...........................  37  62  38  69 /  60  30  10  40
Cerro/Questa....................  36  56  37  65 /  60  50  20  30
Red River.......................  29  50  30  58 /  70  60  20  40
Angel Fire......................  28  54  28  60 /  70  50  20  40
Taos............................  32  61  31  70 /  60  40  20  20
Mora............................  33  60  35  66 /  70  40  10  40
Espanola........................  41  68  42  76 /  60  30  10  20
Santa Fe........................  41  63  43  71 /  50  20  10  30
Santa Fe Airport................  40  67  41  75 /  40  20  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  47  71  50  78 /  30  10   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  46  73  48  79 /  20  10   5   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  45  75  47  81 /  20  10   5   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  46  73  48  79 /  20  10   5   5
Belen...........................  43  77  44  82 /  10  10   0   5
Bernalillo......................  45  73  47  80 /  30  10   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  42  76  43  81 /  10  10   5   5
Corrales........................  45  74  46  80 /  20  10   0   5
Los Lunas.......................  43  76  43  82 /  10  10   0   5
Placitas........................  45  69  47  76 /  30  20   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  46  73  47  79 /  20  10   0   5
Socorro.........................  48  80  49  83 /   5  10   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  41  64  44  71 /  30  20   5  20
Tijeras.........................  42  67  44  74 /  30  10   5  20
Edgewood........................  39  67  41  75 /  30  10   5  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  36  69  36  76 /  30  10   5  10
Clines Corners..................  38  64  38  70 /  50  10   5  20
Mountainair.....................  40  68  42  74 /  10  10   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  40  69  41  75 /  10  10   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  47  74  49  78 /  10   5   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  43  67  45  70 /  20   5   0  20
Capulin.........................  38  60  40  67 /  80  70  20  30
Raton...........................  38  64  39  72 /  70  60  20  20
Springer........................  38  66  39  72 /  70  40  10  30
Las Vegas.......................  36  64  38  69 /  70  30  10  30
Clayton.........................  46  69  47  74 /  80  60  20  10
Roy.............................  43  67  44  73 /  90  40  10  30
Conchas.........................  50  75  47  79 /  80  20   5  10
Santa Rosa......................  47  72  45  76 /  70  10   5  10
Tucumcari.......................  50  77  46  80 /  70  20   5  10
Clovis..........................  53  79  50  79 /  60  20   5   0
Portales........................  53  80  49  81 /  60  10   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  52  78  47  80 /  50  10   0   0
Roswell.........................  56  86  54  86 /  20   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  46  78  48  79 /  20   0   0  10
Elk.............................  45  75  47  76 /  20   5   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
320 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 W Farmington          36.75N 108.23W
05/11/2024  M60 MPH          San Juan           NM   ASOS

            ASOS station KFMN Farmington Airport.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
323 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 W Farmington          36.75N 108.23W
05/11/2024  M60 MPH          San Juan           NM   ASOS

            ASOS station KFMN Farmington Airport.

&&

CA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
501 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 W Farmington          36.75N 108.23W
05/11/2024  M60 MPH          San Juan           NM   ASOS

            ASOS station KFMN Farmington Airport.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
506 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 S Clines Corners      35.00N 105.67W
05/11/2024  M62 MPH          Torrance           NM   ASOS

            ASOS station KCQC Clines Corners 1 SSE.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
559 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     Hail             4 SSW Roswell Correctio 33.08N 104.55W
05/11/2024  E1.75 Inch       Chaves             NM   Public

&&

44

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