Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1027 AM MST Mon Feb 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 AM MST Mon Feb 26 2024

Three weather systems are forecast to impact the area over the
next week. The first will bring strong west and southwest wind
gusts in the 40 to 60 mph range to much of the forecast area today
with fire weather concerns across eastern New Mexico. Gusts from
45 to 70 mph are then expected Tuesday with more fire weather
concerns on the far eastern plains. Aside from significant blowing
dust at lower elevations, the storm system will also produce
several inches of snow and blowing snow in the northern mountains,
where drifts will be measured in feet. The second system will be
more mellow with a mix of rain and snow mainly over central and
southern areas Wednesday night through Thursday morning. The third
system looks to bring more wind, and more in the way of snow than
rain, during the coming weekend. Gusts up to 50 mph will again be
possible Saturday with the potential for widespread critical fire
weather conditions. Then, gusts up to 60 mph look possible for
Sunday with more fire weather concerns across the east, and
accumulating snow across western and north central areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 AM MST Mon Feb 26 2024

...WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW
TODAY AND TUESDAY...

Spring will continue to make an early presence with above normal
temperatures, horrific winds, and a mix of rain, snow, and
thunderstorms today and Tuesday. Split flow will remain at work with
the subtropical segment of the jet rounding an offshore cut-off low
over the eastern Pacific and the polar jet dipping into the Pacific
Northwest states along with a vigorous trough. Zonal flow over NM
will continue to increase as these jet segments merge toward each
other today, and the flow will become increasingly perturbed with
small scale ripples and shortwaves multiplying along with orographic
enhancements as the stiff westerly flow hits favorably oriented
mountain ranges. Higher resolution CAMs and even synoptic models
have abruptly become more enthused about shower and thunderstorm
activity today with the northern mountains likely being the more
persistent recipients with fleeting activity elsewhere today and
this evening. Consequently, POPs have been expanded and increased,
but most zones are still only hosting slight to low chances (10-40
percent) with brief-lived activity and light amounts today due to
the fast motion in the strong flow. The bigger story today will be
the winds, particularly from the Sangre de Cristos and
Sandia/Manzanos eastward. The High Wind Warning for today was
expanded to more of the I-40 corridor toward the Sandia/Manzanos.

Into tonight, the northwestern states trough will move toward the
northern and central Rockies, allowing the two aforementioned jet
segments to become closer to a merger. This will only increase the
flow aloft over NM tonight with widespread 700 mb winds of 50 to 70
kt projected along with a stout surface gradient that could keep
things gusty all night for many zones. The High Wind Watch for many
remaining eastern zones and some mountainous western ones will
continue for late tonight, but it seems like a near certainty for
things to be upgraded at this point. The increasingly perturbed
westerlies will also cause snow to turn more periodic, if not
occasionally steady, over the northern mountains, including the
Sangre de Cristos. With snow accumulations projected to creep up to
6 to 12 inches and locally much higher through Tuesday, it seemed
prudent to convert tonight’s High Wind Warning for the Sangre de
Cristos to a Winter Storm Warning.

The base of the trough will swing through CO late in the day with a
Pacific front accompanying. Tuesday’s winds will be abysmal with
widespread gusts of 45 to 65 mph expected and locally as high as 75
mph, mainly along and immediately east of the central mountain
chain. Temperatures will fall several degrees (generally by 5-10) on
Tuesday, and areas of mountain snow and showers and thunderstorms
will continue Tuesday with snow stacking up in the northern
mountains and drifting considerably with periods of white-out
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 215 AM MST Mon Feb 26 2024

Wind speeds will gradually weaken Tuesday evening, then more
rapidly late Tuesday night after the base of the upper level
trough crossing the central Rockies exits onto the Great Plains.
Snow will also taper off, lingering longest over northeast areas
near the CO border. Only light additional snow accumulations are
forecast in the northern mountains Tuesday evening, but blowing
snow will probably continue above 8500 feet where the most
significant storm total snow accumulations are forecast. In the
wake of Pacific and backdoor cold fronts that cross Tuesday night,
high temperatures should bottom out on Wednesday near 1991-2020
averages to as much as 12 degrees below them with the coolest
departures in the east.

High temperatures will rebound during the latter half of the week.
Models are now bringing an upper level trough a bit further
northward in its trek across southern NM from the Baja Peninsula
Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The system will bring some
moisture with it will rain and snow showers spreading as far north
as the southern Jemez and southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains.
Liquid and liquid equivalent precip amounts are forecast to vary
from around 0.05" along the I-40 corridor to near a quarter inch
along the southern border of the forecast area from the south
central mountains westward, with locally higher amounts in the
southern tier of mountains. A few to around 4 inches of snow look
possible in the southwest and south central mountains above 8500
feet, with up to inch possible in Ruidoso,and lighter amounts
elsewhere mainly south of I-40.

Zonal flow aloft will then gradually transition to southwesterly
later in the week ahead of a broad upper level trough that will
bring some moisture with it as it moves over the southern Rockies
on Sunday. It will be a colder system with 700 mb temperatures
potentially dropping as low as -10 C on Sunday as a gusty Pacific
cold front plunges southeastward through the forecast area with a
band of potentially heavy snow. A few to several inches of snow
look possible with this system over the western and northern
mountains, with lighter amounts of a few inches not out of the
question at lower elevations along and west of the continental
divide. Winds will also be impactful. Southwest winds are forecast
to strengthen with each day Thursday through Sunday. Wind gusts
could reach 50 mph along the western border and across parts of
east central and northeast NM as early as Saturday afternoon,
where/when critical fire weather conditions may become widespread.
The polar jetstream is then forecast to cross on Sunday with wind
gusts potentially in the 45-60 mph over central, southern, and
eastern parts of the forecast area. Critical fire weather
conditions may linger over much of the eastern plains on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 929 AM MST Mon Feb 26 2024

Strong and increasing westerly flow will prevail through the TAF
period with areas of low level wind shear and the potential for
blowing dust to limit vsbys. The strongest winds will materialize
after the end of the TAF period. An Airport Weather Warning for
gusts to 35kts has been issued for KABQ. Showers are forecast to
expand overnight across the western and northern mountains and
will result in mountain obscurations. Showers may impact KGUP and
KFMN overnight and into Tuesday morning with MVFR conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 AM MST Mon Feb 26 2024

A very gusty and above normal temperature regime is expected today.
Upper level winds are strengthening and will continue to do so today
into tonight. This will lead to higher surface/20ft level gusts of
35 to 60 mph over much of northeastern to east central NM this
afternoon where mostly dry conditions are expected. Despite an
increase in showers and even thunderstorms over portions of western
and central NM today, eastern areas will still suffer from low
humidity (15 to 20 percent). Surface dewpoints are still forecast to
rise, keeping minimum humidity in a marginal range by traditional
critical thresholds, but after yesterday’s dry winds, fuel
conditions in eastern zones are likely primed and cured. Therefore,
a Red Flag Warning will remain in effect over the northeast
highlands and eastern plains today.

After a stretch of well above normal temperatures a fast-moving cold
front will be moving into NM late Tuesday. In addition, upper level
winds will continue to surge up in speed with very strong to severe
gusts expected to mix down to the surface through the day Tuesday.
All zones will be windy, but the eastern half of the state will
observe the strongest speeds Tuesday. Similar to today, minimum
humidity in northeastern and east central NM will float within the
15 to 20 percent range on Tuesday, keeping concerns for rapid fire
spread over this area that has been dry and void of appreciable
precipitation for some time, so a Fire Weather Watch will be issued.
Haines indices are still expected to be rather low (2 to 3) on
Tuesday with energy release component-based guidance indicating
mostly elevated to critical conditions, but will err on the side of
caution.

The front will overtake the remainder of NM Tuesday night, cooling
temperatures several more degrees on Wednesday. What was looking
like a dry day on Wednesday might be transitioning to a wetter one
in southwestern zones late in the day before expanding overnight.
The welcome news will be a reduction in winds on Wednesday with a
respite from the critical threat, however winds are forecast to
increase late in the week and into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  64  42  50  18 /  20  50  70   5
Dulce...........................  56  32  44   3 /  50  90  90  10
Cuba............................  58  36  48  15 /  30  50  60  20
Gallup..........................  61  35  52  13 /  20  60  50  20
El Morro........................  56  35  48  16 /  30  60  50  20
Grants..........................  61  36  52  15 /  20  50  40  10
Quemado.........................  60  37  54  22 /  30  30  30  10
Magdalena.......................  65  42  58  27 /  20   5  10   5
Datil...........................  60  37  54  25 /  30  20  20   5
Reserve.........................  64  35  56  24 /  30  30  40  10
Glenwood........................  68  43  59  35 /  30  40  40  10
Chama...........................  47  28  37   0 /  70  90  90  10
Los Alamos......................  57  39  50  21 /  30  50  50  10
Pecos...........................  56  37  49  20 /  40  50  40  10
Cerro/Questa....................  49  38  42  17 /  40  70  70  10
Red River.......................  44  30  37   5 /  50  70  70  20
Angel Fire......................  46  34  40  -6 /  50  70  60  10
Taos............................  55  33  47  10 /  40  70  60  10
Mora............................  55  37  49  16 /  40  60  40   5
Espanola........................  64  40  58  19 /  30  50  50  10
Santa Fe........................  59  42  51  22 /  40  50  50  20
Santa Fe Airport................  63  40  55  21 /  30  40  40  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  66  46  61  28 /  20  20  20  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  44  63  27 /  20  20  20  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  70  40  65  26 /  20  10  20  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  69  44  63  26 /  20  20  20  10
Belen...........................  72  43  67  26 /  20  10   5   5
Bernalillo......................  68  44  63  25 /  20  20  30  10
Bosque Farms....................  71  40  66  25 /  20  10  10  10
Corrales........................  69  42  63  25 /  20  20  20  10
Los Lunas.......................  71  41  66  26 /  20  10  10   5
Placitas........................  64  44  59  26 /  30  30  30  10
Rio Rancho......................  68  44  62  25 /  20  20  20  10
Socorro.........................  76  49  69  30 /  20   5   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  42  53  24 /  30  20  30  20
Tijeras.........................  61  43  56  24 /  30  20  30  10
Edgewood........................  61  42  55  22 /  30  20  20   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  64  41  58  20 /  30  20  10   5
Clines Corners..................  59  38  54  18 /  30  20  10   5
Mountainair.....................  63  43  59  25 /  30  10  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  66  43  60  25 /  30  10  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  70  48  64  34 /  20  10   5   5
Ruidoso.........................  64  47  56  31 /  20  10  10   5
Capulin.........................  61  36  54  13 /   0   0   0  20
Raton...........................  63  35  56  15 /   5  10  20  20
Springer........................  65  38  58  17 /   5  20  20   5
Las Vegas.......................  60  40  53  16 /  20  30  20   0
Clayton.........................  72  44  64  19 /   0   0   0  10
Roy.............................  67  43  60  19 /   5   5   5   0
Conchas.........................  75  48  68  25 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  71  47  65  24 /  10   5   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  77  47  70  24 /   5   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  78  49  72  28 /   5   0   0   0
Portales........................  80  50  73  27 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  78  47  72  27 /   5   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  85  53  78  41 /   5   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  76  50  68  34 /   5   5   0   0
Elk.............................  74  49  64  35 /   5   5   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for NMZ104-123-126.

High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST Tuesday for NMZ215-221-223-
227>234.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for NMZ104-126.

High Wind Watch from this evening through Tuesday evening for
NMZ206>208-212-222-224>226-235>241.

Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM MST Tuesday
for NMZ210-213-214.

Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for NMZ222-226.

High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for NMZ213-214.

&&

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...11

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