Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1051 AM MST Sun Feb 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 AM MST Sun Feb 25 2024

Winds are forecast to strengthen daily through Tuesday, with the
potential for damaging wind gusts over the mountains and northeast
Monday, and over the mountains and east Tuesday. The strongest
gusts could reach 70 mph over and just east of the Sangre de
Cristo and Sacramento Mountains Monday night and Tuesday. Low
humidities and warm temperatures will accompany the strong winds
producing widespread critical fire weather conditions east of the
central mountain chain today, then again over much of the east
Monday. Areas along and west of the central mountain chain will
have a chance for rain and mountain snow showers Monday through
Tuesday evening, but any accumulations look to favor the mountains
north of I-40 where a few to several inches of snow are expected.
The Tusas Mountains could accumulate up to 20 inches of snow.
After cooling temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, readings will
rebound during the latter half of the week. There will also be a
break from strong winds Wednesday, but spring-like gustiness will
increase during late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM MST Sun Feb 25 2024

A ridge of high pressure aloft will continue to dampen over the
southwestern states and Old Mexico today with copious high cirrus
continuing to move in. The cirrus will likely limit the full
potential for afternoon warming, but temperatures should still
exceed yesterday’s readings by a few to several degrees due to
modest warm air advection and downsloping in eastern zones. The lee-
side trough over eastern CO and northeastern NM will not be all that
deep, but will still present a decent surface gradient for gusty
conditions as deeper vertical mixing ensues and brings down stronger
winds aloft. Wind speeds look to hover just below the recently
raised Wind Advisory criteria (sustained at 35 mph), so will hold
off on any issuance today. This will allow the focus to be centered
on Monday and Tuesday’s winds which will be considerably stronger.

The gradient aloft will strengthen more tonight with 700 mb winds
expected to start exceeding 40 to 50 kt over a broader area of NM.
This will keep ridges and peaks gusty overnight with mountain wave
activity potentially crashing over the adjacent highlands
(especially in northeastern NM) toward dawn Monday. Tonight’s
temperatures will also be consequently quite warm due to ongoing
mixing. Winds aloft will remain stout, likely strengthening a bit
more into the daytime Monday while the lee-side surface trough
deepens much more. Despite a steady stream of high clouds, vertical
mixing heights are expected to remain fairly high Monday afternoon,
especially in northeastern NM where the High Wind Watch will be
expanded. In addition to the winds, the increasingly perturbed flow
aloft will also yield some lift and orographics that will spread
light rain and snow showers over the northern mountains Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM MST Sun Feb 25 2024

Winds aloft are progged to peak in strength Monday night and
Tuesday as an upper level trough crossing the central Rockies
draws the polar jet stream and the subtropical jet together over
New Mexico. The flow at 700 mb looks to vary around 45-70 KT at
its peak, with speeds up to 95 KT at 500 mb. This will cause
Monday's strong winds to continue through Monday night, except for
some decoupling of the low level winds at the lowest elevations
due to temperature inversions that try to set up. Strong winds
will then spread to the lowest elevations quickly on Tuesday
morning due to the deep and strong flow aloft, and early mixing in
above normal temperatures with less cloud cover over eastern
areas. With this forecast package we expanded the High Wind Watch
to the remainder of the area along and east of the central
mountain chain, so all of the east is now covered. Peak gusts
should generally vary from 45 to 70 mph across the forecast area
on Tuesday with the lightest winds at lower elevations west of the
central mountain chain where there will be more clouds and
showers. The upper level trough over the central Rockies is
forecast to take a jog to the southeast Monday night clipping
northeast NM. Once the base of the upper level trough crosses
around midnight, wind speeds should begin to weaken as the flow
aloft relaxes.

Storm total snow amounts look to reach a few to several inches in
the northern mountains, except locally up to 20 inches on the high
peaks of the Tusas Mountains near the CO border. Most of that snow
will fall Monday night and Tuesday. There may also be a few to 4
inches of snow across the far northwest highlands, and an inch or
so on I-40 and Highway 550 over the continental divide. Some
wetting rainfall is also forecast at lower elevations along and
north of a line from Gallup to Taos.

After high temperatures bottom out a few to around 13 degrees
below 1991-2020 averages on Wednesday, readings will rebound
during the latter half of the week as zonal flow aloft gradually
transitions to southwesterly ahead of a broad upper level low
pressure system moving into the western US. Winds will also
subside Wednesday, only to become gradually more breezy with each
day through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 AM MST Sun Feb 25 2024

VFR expected to prevail all terminals through the TAF period.
Increasing upper level moisture will lead to expanding cirrus most
areas. Strong wly winds expected in the aftn, translating to LLWS
overnight, especially in and around wrn terminals, as well as lee of
the central mts. Winds will remain elevated across the high terrain
overnight and will become gusty early tomorrow morning at most
terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 AM MST Sun Feb 25 2024

Breezy to windy conditions turn more widespread today, as upper
level winds strengthen and a surface trough redevelops in eastern CO
and northeastern NM. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph be commonplace in the
eastern half of NM this afternoon when humidity will also plummet
below 10 to 15 percent in many of these eastern zones. Modest Haines
indices of 4 to 5 are expected, and a Red Flag Warning will remain
in effect for the eastern half of the forecast area today.

Upper level winds strengthen more tonight into Monday, and higher
surface/20ft level gusts of 35 to 60 mph are forecast to spread over
more of NM into the afternoon Monday with the strongest gusts
impacting northeastern zones. Uncertainty with the degree of
critical conditions remains on Monday, as low layer dewpoints are
still forecast to rise and keep minimum humidity in a 15 to 20
percent range. With dry fuel conditions expected in eastern zones,
will go ahead and hoist a Fire Weather Watch for Monday.

Temperatures will have been well above average by 10 to almost 20
degrees in many zones today and Monday, but this will be changing
into Tuesday as a front arrives. Tuesday will feature the highest
winds of the week with very strong to severe speeds over a large
majority of the forecast area. Again, minimum RH in northeastern and
east central NM will float within the 15 to 20 percent range, a bit
higher than traditionally expected for critical conditions, and this
introduces some uncertainty with regards to the need for another
Watch. Haines indices are expected to be rather low (2 to 3) on
Tuesday, and energy release component-based guidance is not all that
enthused about critical conditions either. The front will continue
sweeping into NM Tuesday night, setting temperatures back several
degrees more on Wednesday. In addition to the below normal readings
on Wednesday, winds will finally reduce in speed, giving a break
from the critical threat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  63  39  65  43 /   0  10  20  40
Dulce...........................  58  32  57  31 /   0  30  50  80
Cuba............................  60  36  59  37 /   0   5  20  30
Gallup..........................  64  36  62  35 /   5   5  20  40
El Morro........................  61  36  57  36 /   0  10  20  30
Grants..........................  65  36  62  37 /   0   5  10  20
Quemado.........................  65  38  61  38 /   0   5  20  10
Magdalena.......................  67  45  65  43 /   0   0  10   5
Datil...........................  64  39  60  38 /   0   5  10  10
Reserve.........................  70  35  64  36 /   0   5  10  20
Glenwood........................  72  47  67  45 /   0   0  10  20
Chama...........................  50  28  48  27 /   0  40  50  80
Los Alamos......................  60  41  58  41 /   0   5  30  40
Pecos...........................  60  39  58  39 /   0   5  30  30
Cerro/Questa....................  53  37  50  40 /   0  10  30  60
Red River.......................  49  30  45  28 /   0  10  40  60
Angel Fire......................  51  33  47  25 /   0   5  40  50
Taos............................  59  30  56  34 /   0  10  30  50
Mora............................  59  39  57  37 /   0   5  30  30
Espanola........................  66  38  65  43 /   0   5  30  40
Santa Fe........................  61  40  59  42 /   0  10  40  30
Santa Fe Airport................  65  38  62  41 /   0   5  20  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  66  46  66  47 /   0   5  20  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  44  68  47 /   0   5  10   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  70  38  70  47 /   0   5  10   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  43  68  46 /   0   5  10  10
Belen...........................  73  40  74  46 /   0   5  10   5
Bernalillo......................  69  43  68  45 /   0   5  20  10
Bosque Farms....................  71  38  71  47 /   0   5  10   5
Corrales........................  69  42  69  45 /   0   5  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  72  38  72  47 /   0   5  10   5
Placitas........................  65  44  64  45 /   0   5  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  69  43  69  45 /   0   5  10  10
Socorro.........................  76  47  76  50 /   5   0   5   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  44  60  43 /   0   5  20  10
Tijeras.........................  63  43  62  44 /   0   5  20  10
Edgewood........................  63  41  62  43 /   0   5  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  66  37  65  42 /   0   0  10   5
Clines Corners..................  61  40  60  39 /   0   5  10   5
Mountainair.....................  65  44  64  44 /   0   5  10   5
Gran Quivira....................  66  42  66  43 /   0   5  10   5
Carrizozo.......................  70  49  71  48 /   0   0  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  65  48  65  43 /   0   0   5   5
Capulin.........................  64  37  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  65  36  64  37 /   0   0   5  20
Springer........................  67  37  66  39 /   0   0   5  10
Las Vegas.......................  64  40  62  40 /   0   0  20  10
Clayton.........................  72  42  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  69  41  68  45 /   0   0   0   5
Conchas.........................  77  46  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  72  46  72  47 /   0   0   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  77  44  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  77  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  79  45  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  77  44  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  84  50  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  76  50  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  74  50  75  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for NMZ104-123-125-
126.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
for NMZ104-123-126.

High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for
NMZ213>215-227>232-234.

High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening for
NMZ208-212-221>226-233-235>241.

Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening for
NMZ210.

&&

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...12