High Wind Warning 24, NWS Albuquerque, NM

252 
WWUS75 KABQ 090351
NPWABQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
951 PM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024

NMZ219-221-090500-
/O.EXP.KABQ.HW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-240809T0400Z/
Middle Rio Grande Valley including the Albuquerque Metro Area-
Sandia and Manzano Mountains including Edgewood-
951 PM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

Although a few strong gusts may persist, winds will continue to 
decrease, therefore the High Wind Warning will be allowed to expire.

$$

11

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
545 PM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 301 PM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024

Widespread to numerous storm chances today and tomorrow will
increase the risk of flash flooding of recent burn scars, urban
areas, and portions of northern NM where soils are saturated from
recent heavy rainfall. Precipitation chances trend down this weekend
when storms will generally be confined to the high terrain of
western and northern NM. Temps climb back above average early to mid-
next week, creating heat risk concerns in central and eastern NM.
Scattered to widespread storms next week will continue to favor the
northern and western high terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024

Upslope flow and convergence associated with a backdoor front has
already led to widespread storm development along the central
mountain chain this afternoon. This area of enhanced lift will
continue to tap into the 500-1000J/kg of ML CAPE in place and moist
inflow will allow this convection to persist for several hours
despite the slow storm motion. Models have been in good agreement
about storm development in central and northern NM, but eastern NM
still remains a wildcard. Recent runs of the HRRR show a complex of
storms developing late tonight in the east-central plains and even a
few storms as far south as Roswell. Confidence is relatively low
since the exact location will be outflow boundary development.
Showers with embedded storms will likely continue in the north near
the CO border as well, but PoPs were decreased from what the NBM has
since coverage should consistently decrease with the loss of daytime
heating. Low clouds associated with the backdoor front have stalled
across Union county, but the frontal feature itself can be clearly
seen on radar along a line extending from northern Roosevelt county
northwestward towards the central highlands. Consistently breezy
east to northeast winds have been observed in its wake and will
continue to occur through the night until the sfc pressure gradient
finally washes out tomorrow morning. Gusty east winds associated
convective outflows have already been observed in the Rio Grande
Valley, but winds will continue to rise later today as the
reinforcing front pushes through.

With low clouds in place east of the central mountain chain,
expecting convective initiation to be delayed there. However,
confidence is high that storms will bubble up along the central
mountain chain during the early afternoon, spreading north and
eastward during the afternoon. With enhanced mid-level flow, bulk
shear will increase tomorrow, supporting the organization of storms
as they move off the mountains to the east. Strong to severe storms
cannot be ruled out as a result. PWATs of 1-2 standard deviations
above normal in northern NM will once again support efficient
rainfall and potentially a few instances of flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024

The Monsoon High will elongate over New Mexico Saturday and the
increased subsidence and downtick in moisture will result in a
downtrend in convective coverage Saturday afternoon. Locations near
the AZ and CO border will be favored for precipitation. Temperatures
will also climb a few degrees, particularly in eastern NM where the
triple digits will return to the southeast plains after the very
short hiatus. Moisture will recycle Sunday with scattered showers
and storms favoring the western and northern mountains with typical
monsoon hazards. Monday has the potential to be more active as a
shortwave embedded with the southerly monsoonal flow moves across
the state, sparking more widespread showers and storms. Despite the
advantageous flow direction and the added forcing, moisture will
remain at near normal levels. That being said, we are at the
climatological max for PWAT this time of year so a near-normal
atmosphere still has plenty of juice to produce heavy rainfall rates
of 1-2"/hour and flash flooding. The monsoonal moisture plume will
tilt across the state mid-week, introducing higher precipitation
chances into central and even eastern NM. By late week, a ridge
moving in from the west may push some dry air in the western half of
the state, decreasing PoPs there. However, some members of the
global ensembles keep a monsoonal moisture plume across the state
through the entirely of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 406 PM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024

Ongoing convection will be slower to diminish overnight due to
forcing associated with a backdoor front, which is currently
making southwest progress across eastern NM. Short-lived MVFR
conditions are likely in/near convection this evening. The front
will result in a wind shift at KROW later this evening with gusty
northeast winds expected. The front, aided by convective outflow,
will result in a strong east canyon wind at KABQ this evening with
gusts up to 40kts forecast. An Airport Weather Warning will likely
be issued for KABQ shortly. Otherwise, areas of MVFR cigs are
forecast to develop behind the front along/east of the central
mountain chain overnight and impact KLVS and KTCC with very low
IFR probabilities. Low stratus will be slower to diminish across
eastern NM Friday morning. Convection may impact terminals
around/after 21Z Friday with gusty winds and short-lived MVFR
impacts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 PM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024

Numerous showers and storms today and tomorrow will generally favor
western and northern areas. There is a moderate to high risk of burn
scar flash flooding and areas in north-central and eastern NM may
experience flash flooding as well. A backdoor cold front will
continue to progress south and west this afternoon and evening,
eventually creating gusty east winds through the gaps of the central
mtn chain tonight. Low clouds in eastern NM in the wake of the
boundary will create poor ventilation through at least the late
morning east of the central mtn chain. The threat of severe weather
is relatively low today, but increases tomorrow in east-central NM
where very gusty winds and large hail are possible. Shower and storm
activity trends down this weekend then increases again early next
week. Temperatures will also climb back above seasonal averages next
week, creating heat risk concerns along the Rio Grande Valley and in
eastern NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  66  86  64  88 /  50  50  50  20
Dulce...........................  52  78  52  82 /  70  70  60  50
Cuba............................  58  81  58  85 /  40  50  50  40
Gallup..........................  57  84  58  88 /  50  50  30  20
El Morro........................  58  80  58  84 /  50  50  40  20
Grants..........................  60  82  60  88 /  40  40  40  30
Quemado.........................  58  82  58  87 /  40  50  30  20
Magdalena.......................  61  86  64  88 /  30  10  20  10
Datil...........................  57  81  58  85 /  30  30  20  10
Reserve.........................  57  83  57  91 /  30  60  20  10
Glenwood........................  65  89  67  95 /  30  30  10   5
Chama...........................  50  72  50  74 /  80  70  70  60
Los Alamos......................  59  80  61  81 /  50  60  50  50
Pecos...........................  57  81  58  83 /  60  60  50  30
Cerro/Questa....................  52  74  51  77 /  80  70  70  60
Red River.......................  47  66  47  67 /  80  70  70  60
Angel Fire......................  46  72  46  72 /  80  60  60  50
Taos............................  54  79  54  81 /  70  50  60  40
Mora............................  53  76  52  79 /  70  60  50  50
Espanola........................  61  86  61  89 /  60  50  50  30
Santa Fe........................  60  83  61  84 /  70  50  50  30
Santa Fe Airport................  60  86  61  89 /  50  40  40  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  66  91  68  92 /  40  30  40  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  92  67  94 /  30  20  30   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  94  67  95 /  30  20  30   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  92  67  94 /  30  20  30  10
Belen...........................  65  94  66  96 /  30  10  20   0
Bernalillo......................  65  94  66  95 /  40  20  40  10
Bosque Farms....................  65  93  65  95 /  30  20  20   5
Corrales........................  66  94  67  95 /  30  20  40  10
Los Lunas.......................  66  94  66  95 /  30  10  20   5
Placitas........................  63  90  65  91 /  40  20  30  10
Rio Rancho......................  66  93  67  95 /  30  20  40  10
Socorro.........................  67  95  69  97 /  30  10  10   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  84  60  86 /  40  30  30  20
Tijeras.........................  60  87  61  88 /  40  30  30  10
Edgewood........................  58  85  58  88 /  40  40  30  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  57  86  56  90 /  30  20  30  10
Clines Corners..................  56  80  56  85 /  50  30  30  10
Mountainair.....................  58  85  59  88 /  30  20  20   5
Gran Quivira....................  58  86  59  87 /  30  20  20   5
Carrizozo.......................  64  89  64  91 /  20  30  20  10
Ruidoso.........................  57  82  58  83 /  10  30  20  10
Capulin.........................  56  74  55  79 /  60  50  80  50
Raton...........................  57  78  55  84 /  60  60  60  40
Springer........................  58  82  58  86 /  70  50  60  30
Las Vegas.......................  57  79  55  84 /  50  50  40  30
Clayton.........................  61  76  59  85 /  40  40  70  30
Roy.............................  60  79  59  84 /  70  40  70  30
Conchas.........................  66  88  64  93 /  40  40  50  10
Santa Rosa......................  65  87  63  91 /  40  30  40  10
Tucumcari.......................  66  88  63  92 /  40  30  40  10
Clovis..........................  68  90  66  95 /  30  30  30   5
Portales........................  68  91  66  95 /  30  30  30   5
Fort Sumner.....................  68  92  67  95 /  30  20  20   5
Roswell.........................  73  98  72 100 /  20   0  10   0
Picacho.........................  65  91  64  93 /  10   5  10   5
Elk.............................  60  88  60  91 /  10  10  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ214-215-227>229.

&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
526 PM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     Flash Flood      2 SSW Rociada           35.80N 105.44W
08/08/2024                   San Miguel         NM   Broadcast Media

            Image of vehicles in flash flooding in
            Rincon Montoso southwest of Rociada.

&&

DPorter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
551 PM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024

NMZ201-090015-
Northwest Plateau-
551 PM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024

...STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SAN JUAN COUNTY
THROUGH 615 PM MDT...

At 549 PM MDT, Doppler radar and satellite were tracking strong
gusty outflows from showers and thunderstorms. These strong winds
were along a line extending from 14 miles southeast of Aneth to 7
miles northwest of Shiprock to 10 miles southwest of Ojo Amarillo.
Movement was west to southwest at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar and satellite indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Shiprock, Nenahnezad, Red Valley, and Rattlesnake.

This includes Highway 64 between Mile Markers 1 and 33.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10872 3686 10863 3661 10828 3641 10856
      3664 10904 3700 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 082DEG 25KT 3707 10896 3684 10881 3656 10846

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

DPorter

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
711 PM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     Flash Flood      2 S Edgewood            35.04N 106.19W
08/08/2024                   Torrance           NM   Trained Spotter

            Driveway flooded and impassable.

&&

DPorter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
729 PM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024

NMZ222-223-090200-
Central Highlands-Estancia Valley-
729 PM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN TORRANCE COUNTY THROUGH
800 PM MDT...

At 729 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles south of Clines Corners to 6 miles
northeast of Cedarvale. Movement was north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of eastern Torrance
County.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 285 between Mile Markers 226 and 246.
 Highway 60 between Mile Markers 234 and 251.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3496 10584 3439 10576 3440 10551 3497 10548
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 175DEG 18KT 3485 10566 3446 10565

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DPorter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
748 PM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024

NMZ219-220-090245-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro
Area-
748 PM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024

...GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL VALENCIA...NORTH CENTRAL SOCORRO
AND BERNALILLO COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM MDT...

At 746 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers along the
Sandia and Manzano Mountains producing strong easterly winds.

HAZARD...East wind gusts up to 57 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Albuquerque, Los Lunas, Belen, Valencia, Los Ranchos De Albuquerque,
Bosque Farms, Rio Communities North, Paradise Hills, Jarales, and Los
Trujillos-Gabaldon.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 144 and 166.
 Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 175 and 233.
 Highway 60 between Mile Markers 166 and 181.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Blowing dust can reduce visibilities below one quarter mile at times.

&&

LAT...LON 3520 10688 3520 10651 3443 10655 3441 10658
      3441 10693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 108DEG 8KT 3507 10652

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CA