High Wind Warning 14, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
Issued by National Weather Service Amarillo TX
244 PM MDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 238 PM MDT Thu Apr 4 2024

Strong winds will return Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as a potent
weather system moves through the region. South to southwest winds
will increase Friday with widespread gusts of 45 to 55 mph. A few
spots across western NM may exceed 60 mph. A powerful cold front
will then move through Saturday with widespread westerly wind
gusts of 50 to 60 mph. Locations in the southern high terrain and
eastern NM may see gusts of 60 to 70 mph. Critical fire weather,
blowing dust, low visibility, poor air quality, and dangerous
travel conditions are expected. Light to moderate snow is also
possible across northern and western NM Friday night and Saturday
with minor impacts in the higher terrain. Winds will remain
elevated into Sunday followed by quieter weather Monday. The next
storm may impact the region Tuesday with more wind, rain, and
snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Thu Apr 4 2024

A beautiful spring day is in progress across the Land of Enchantment,
with full sunshine and lowland temperatures mainly in the 70s F.
Large changes are afoot, however, as the axis of ridging aloft
that has provided this brilliant weather has already (per recent
RAP analysis) progressed to far eastern NM, with SW flow aloft
behind it. The very dry airmass in place, along with the
aforementioned warm temperatures, should allow for rather
efficient mixing through the remainder of the afternoon hours,
with S/SW breezes gusting up to 25-30mph.

Changes begin more earnestly, at least aloft, tonight, as meridional (SSW)
component of winds continues strengthening, courtesy of an upper-
level low moving inland toward Nevada from its current position
offshore SFO. 500mb winds reach 50-55 knots over western NM by
daybreak Friday, with those at 700mb in the 30-45 knot range.
Winds should mostly decouple overnight, but elevated breezes and
some increase in cloud cover will make for a relatively mild
night, with morning low temperatures generally 5-10 degrees above
normal for early April.

Strong wind and fire weather (see below) concerns really amp up for Friday.
As the upper-level low and its associated trough continue their
trek inland, gradient aloft tightens considerably. By late
afternoon/early evening, the GFS progs a 250mb 150-knot jet streak
moving into SW NM, with corresponding speeds of 75-80KT at H5 and
topping out at 50-60KT at H7, just ahead of an approaching
Pacific cold front. Relatively unidirectional flow and
deep/efficient mixing will make for a windy to very windy day,
especially for SSW-NNE oriented valleys and mountain passes. For
example, NBM probabilities of max wind gusts exceeding 55mph are
around 70% in the I-25 corridor south of Socorro and near 90% in
the Raton vicinity. Existing High Wind Watch for Friday in our
western zones is likely to be upgraded to a High Wind Warning,
with widespread Wind Advisories over the western two-thirds of the
CWA. Blowing dust is likely to be noticeable in the afternoon and
early evening.

Pacific cold front arrives at the AZ border around 00-03Z Friday evening,
ushering in a more westerly wind shift and much cooler air.
Scattered showers move through NW NM, while a relatively quick
burst of snow hits the north-central mountains, focused on the
Tusas range. Several inches of snow may accumulate above 8000 ft.
or so, but not confident enough in amounts for any winter
headlines at this juncture. As the colder air filters in, highs on
Saturday will be 20-25 degrees lower than Friday. The ABQ metro
is likely to only reach ~50 F.

And the winds certainly continue into Saturday! Recent
deterministic runs (e. g., GFS and NAM) have trended a bit further
north with the surface lee cyclone formation…more in east-central
or even NE Colorado. H7 and H85 winds also down a touch from
earlier guidance (about 30-40 and 25-40 knots, respectively, but
not enough to make much difference in terms of impacts. Wind
component perpendicular to the central mountain chain will make
for strong winds there and out into the eastern plains, where
additional High Wind Watches and eventually warnings are
anticipated. Blowing dust again likely to be an issue for Chaves
County, with Dust Advisories and/or Dust Storm Warnings possible
south of Roswell where source regions remain and drought persists.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Thu Apr 4 2024

The powerful storm system responsible for widespread high winds and
dangerous fire weather will become nearly stationary near
southwest Nebraska by Saturday night. Forecast confidence remains
moderate to high on the overall impacts to our region Saturday
night into Sunday. A ~540dm H5 low and ~990mb surface low will
wobble near western Nebraska thru this period while 700mb winds of
45 to 55 kt remain focused along the central mt chain and high
plains of eastern NM. The strongest winds from Saturday will taper
off thru Saturday night then ramp up again over eastern NM
Sunday. Widespread gusts of 45 to 55 mph are possible along the
east slopes and I-40 corridor into west TX. The latest NBM
probabilities for wind gusts greater than 55 mph are still above
40% along the Sangre de Cristos into Sunday so more Wind
Advisories are highly possible. MOS output already shows strong
winds for the I-40 corridor Sunday. Max temps will cool 5 to 10F
below normal by Sunday so it will be rather brisk despite highs in
the 50s and 60s.

There is a relative break in the winds Sunday night and Monday as
the entire storm system ejects northeast toward the Great Lakes
region. Widespread freezing temps will occur Monday morning in the
wake of this system in areas that are getting close to their
average last spring freeze. Folks with any early season outdoor
plants should plan to offer protection from these temps. Southwest
winds will still be breezy over our region Monday ahead of the
next storm system. This next wave will already be taking shape by
late Monday over the Great Basin then dropping south into Arizona
Monday night. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front moving south along
the Front Range will enter northeast NM by late Monday afternoon
into Monday night. The H5 low over Arizona is then shown with
decent agreement shifting east across central/southern NM Tuesday
while the backdoor cold front surges southwest to the central mt
chain. Forecast models have been very consistent the past few days
with widespread rain/snow developing over our region Tuesday
before evolving into a banded precip feature over eastern NM thru
Tuesday night. Temps may be cold enough to support snow and travel
impacts across the high terrain and perhaps the I-40 corridor of
eastern NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM MDT Thu Apr 4 2024

18Z Aviation AFD: High confidence (greater than 90%) in VFR
prevailing over the next 24 hours. Southerly breezes increase this
afternoon across NM as flow aloft strengthens in advance of a deep
trough aloft along the CA coast. With a very dry airmass in place,
these breezes should efficiently mix down to the surface. Model
guidance (RAP, in particular) showing a signal for some pockets of
LLWS over W. NM and into the Rio Grande Valley overnight as
surface winds decouple while winds just above the surface continue
to intensify. Gusty surface winds re-materialize around mid-
morning Friday and continue the upward trend beyond 18Z. Good
chance (70-80%) than an Airport Weather Warning will be needed for
KABQ Friday afternoon, as winds gust up to 40-45KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 PM MDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY ON FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

Little change in the Fire Weather forecast. Winds
continue trending upward on Friday as an upper-level jet moves
over western and central NM ahead of the next Pacific storm
system. Deep, efficient mixing will allow for windy to very windy
conditions, with the strongest winds across western NM and SSW-NNE
oriented valleys and mountain passes. Gusts between 45 and 60 mph
are expected across western NM, with slightly lower gusts across
the east. RH readings will fall below 15 percent across most lower
elevation spots. Fine fuels should have little problem carrying
fire should one ignite. Will maintain the existing Red Flag
Warning placement and timing.

A potent cold front will sweep from west to east across NM early
Saturday. Despite cooler temperatures, winds will be at least as
strong...or possibly stronger...on Saturday behind the front. The
strongest winds on Saturday will be across eastern NM and from
the west, however. Despite the cooler conditions, RH values will
still fall to between 10-15% across much of eastern NM and the
middle Rio Grande Valley. With critical fire weather conditions
likely again, have maintained the existing Fire Weather Watch for
the Rio Grande Valley and all of eastern NM. A few inches of snow
is possible mainly above 7500 feet on Saturday as well. Though not
as strong as Saturday, gusty westerly winds will continue on
Sunday across eastern NM with continued low RH. Another round of
critical fire weather conditions will most likely occur in this
area. Another storm system appears increasingly likely to bring
more widespread precipitation from Monday night into the middle of
next week. 53-Schroeder

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  43  69  31  49 /   5   5  40  10
Dulce...........................  35  66  24  42 /   0  10  90  40
Cuba............................  40  65  24  42 /   0   0  70  30
Gallup..........................  35  64  24  46 /   0   0  60  20
El Morro........................  36  60  23  39 /   0   0  60  30
Grants..........................  34  65  24  45 /   0   0  50  20
Quemado.........................  37  61  25  43 /   0   0  40  20
Magdalena.......................  42  66  30  47 /   0   0  10   5
Datil...........................  37  60  26  42 /   0   0  20  10
Reserve.........................  37  65  26  51 /   0   0  40  10
Glenwood........................  48  69  34  53 /   0   0  30  10
Chama...........................  32  61  19  36 /   0  10  90  50
Los Alamos......................  43  63  30  41 /   0   0  50  30
Pecos...........................  40  65  28  43 /   0   0  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  44  59  31  36 /   0   0  60  30
Red River.......................  32  56  20  33 /   0   0  60  40
Angel Fire......................  27  56  19  34 /   0   0  40  30
Taos............................  33  66  26  42 /   0   0  50  20
Mora............................  37  64  26  40 /   0   0  30  20
Espanola........................  39  72  33  49 /   0   0  50  30
Santa Fe........................  43  66  30  43 /   0   0  40  30
Santa Fe Airport................  42  70  32  48 /   0   0  30  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  49  72  36  51 /   0   0  20  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  45  73  36  52 /   0   0  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  44  75  36  54 /   0   0  10   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  45  73  36  52 /   0   0  20  10
Belen...........................  40  75  37  55 /   0   0  10   5
Bernalillo......................  43  74  36  52 /   0   0  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  42  75  35  54 /   0   0  10   5
Corrales........................  44  74  36  53 /   0   0  20  10
Los Lunas.......................  42  74  36  55 /   0   0  10   5
Placitas........................  45  69  34  48 /   0   0  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  44  74  36  52 /   0   0  20  10
Socorro.........................  43  77  39  58 /   0   0   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  45  64  31  42 /   0   0  20  20
Tijeras.........................  44  66  32  45 /   0   0  20  10
Edgewood........................  38  68  30  45 /   0   0  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  34  69  29  49 /   0   0  10   5
Clines Corners..................  37  65  27  44 /   0   0  10   5
Mountainair.....................  40  66  30  46 /   0   0  10   5
Gran Quivira....................  40  66  31  48 /   0   0   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  46  71  40  53 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  43  64  34  46 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  37  66  34  47 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  33  70  34  50 /   0   0  10   5
Springer........................  33  71  36  50 /   0   0   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  38  67  32  45 /   0   0  10   5
Clayton.........................  43  74  44  57 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  40  72  39  51 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  40  79  43  59 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  38  76  39  55 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  42  79  44  60 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  45  80  45  63 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  45  82  47  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  40  79  43  60 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  43  84  49  67 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  43  77  41  59 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  43  74  39  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for NMZ101-104-
106-121-123>126.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for NMZ104-106-123-125-126.

High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
NMZ202-205-208.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99