Flash Flood Warning 71, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
250 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Historically high moisture continues to move across NM today causing
rain showers and thunderstorms, a few of which can be strong to
severe. Torrential rainfall will be possible from any rain shower
and thunderstorms which can rapidly cause flash flooding. Lower
moisture on Friday leads to a brief reduction in the rain showers
and thunderstorms activity. The weekend and next week will see
abnormally high amounts of moisture push back across NM leading to
further vigorous rain showers and thunderstorms that may produce
torrential rainfall. Don't go into deadly flood waters. TURN AROUND,
DONT DROWN!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Today has historic amounts of moisture moving across NM. The PWAT is
1 in to 1.5 in which puts it in the top 10% to possible even the max
of moisture events for this time of the year. The shear amount of
moisture will allow any rain shower or thunderstorms to produce
torrential amounts of rainfall.

Torrential rainfall can rapidly cause flash flooding that can sweep
away people and vehicles! Flood waters are deadly and easily hide
their danger! Do not go into them even if it looks safe! Most flood
drowning deaths happen in vehicles! TURN AROUND, DONT DROWN!

Today the rain showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing across
much of NM and will continue to do so into evening hours. The high
pressure which has been sitting across NM has been flattened
allowing a trough to the NW to be more influential across NM. This is
producing westerly winds aloft that is causing the ongoing rain
showers and thunderstorms to move generally eastward. There will be
some variation in storm motion with some storms traveling more NE
while others travel more SE. These increased winds aloft are
allowing the storms to be better ventilated so overall they are more
vigorous than previous days. A few of these storms may even become
strong to severe with the main threats being damaging winds,
torrential rainfall, and even large hail. As the dynamics will be
better in northern NM the chance of stronger storms will be highers
there with chances decreasing to the S NM. While these storms will
be moving the stronger nature of the storms will allow higher
rainfall rates so the threat of flash flooding remains. This
afternoon to overnight the westerly winds will push the moisture out
of NM. This will cause the rain showers and thunderstorms to start
to diminish during the evening hours and in large have ceased by the
overnight hours. The silver lining of all this moisture is that will
help to prevent NM from getting to hot with highs in the 80s to
90s today for the valleys.

Friday should a relative minimum for rain showers and thunderstorm
activity as there will be little moisture to form them. The limited
amount of moisture will mean most of the storms will produce lighter
rainfall. The exception will be in southern central NM near the
Sacramento Complex where moisture will still be elevated. This area
still has a least a small chance for storms to produce above normal
rainfall. Without the ample moisture Friday will be on the hotter
side with most valley areas returning to the 90s and 100s.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

NM has a high chance to see continued active weather for the weekend
through next Thursday as moisture causes rain showers and
thunderstorms each day.

This weekend the high pressure has a high chance of pushing back
across much of NM with the western edge of its center mainly in the
eastern part of NM. This pattern pushes another round of abnormally
high moisture across NM from both the Gulf of Mexico to the SE and
the Gulf of California to the SW. This batch of abnormally high
moisture is still flagging to be in the top 10% or even higher of
moisture events for this time of year with PWATs in the 1 to 1.4
inch range. The moisture coupled with daytime heating will allow for
further rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms each day mainly in
the afternoon and evening hours. These storms could be capable of
producing copious amounts of rainfall due to just how moist the
environment is expected to be. Flooding remains very much a concern
for the weekend due to the shear amount of moisture expected across
NM.

To further complicate the scenario on Saturday there is a moderate
chance that a back door cold front pushes NE to SW across NM
Saturday morning. This front would then stall in the central
portions of NM around or to the south of the Albuquerque area. This
front prior to its stalling can act as a forcing mechanism that can
organize and intensify rain showers and thunderstorms. Once it
stalls it would still act as a forcing area as moisture overruns it
increasing rain intensity and amounts around and along the front. So
this front could prove a key feature during this weekend for
rainfall chances and amounts for Saturday.

Sunday should see the high pressure become stronger and push further
westward into NM. This would shift the moisture more towards the
central and western portions of NM making those regions far more
likely to see rain showers and thunderstorms compared to eastern NM.

Monday to Thursday has a moderate chance of keeping the abnormally
high moisture across NM leading to continued rain showers and
thunderstorms each day. The pattern seems to favor shifting to a
more traditional monsoon setup through next work week. This would
see the band of high moisture shift in orientation to be from the SW
corner to the NE corner of NM. Flooding remains a concern for storms
within the corridor of high moisture as they would be capable of
producing copious amounts of rainfall. There is some hints that dry
air may try to work its way into NM from the NW starting on
Thursday. If this dry air arrives it could help to mitigate the
abnormally high moisture bringing a decrease in monsoonal
activity.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

MVFR conditions likely in/near sct/num storms this afternoon and
early evening, with impacts more likely at central and western
terminals. Low thunderstorm probabilities at KTCC/KROW. In
addition to MVFR conditions, gusts to between 35-45kts will be
common in/near storms today. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail and
are forecast to persist through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Historic levels of moisture are present over NM today causing the
ongoing rain showers and thunderstorms that are already producing
torrential rainfall. The storm motion is generally eastward with a
few storms moving either more NE or SE. While the more progressive
nature of the storms will keep them from being over a spot for a
long duration these storms can produce very high rainfall rates. So
there is still very much a threat of flash flooding across NM
including all fire areas and burn scars. Flash flooding on the fires
and burn scars can create life threatening debris flows. Friday
should see a brief reprieve with lesser rain and thunderstorms
chances with lower levels of moisture over NM. However abnormally
high moisture may still linger over the Sacramento Complex so there
is still a flooding threat for those fires. The weekend another
batch of abnormally high moisture surges back across NM leading to
further rounds of vigorous rain showers and thunderstorms. Theses
storms will be capable of producing copious amounts of rainfall so
the threat for flash flooding will persist into next week. The
silver lining to all this moisture is that the RH remains elevated
with excellent overnight recoveries.

Flood waters can easily sweep away people, vehicles, and roads.
STAY ALIVE! DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOOD WATERS!

SH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  62  91  63  93 /  50   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  48  88  48  90 /  30   5   0  10
Cuba............................  56  85  58  87 /  40  10   0  20
Gallup..........................  54  88  56  90 /  40   5   0  10
El Morro........................  56  83  58  84 /  40  10   0  30
Grants..........................  56  88  56  89 /  30  10   0  40
Quemado.........................  58  85  59  85 /  40  20   5  50
Magdalena.......................  64  88  67  89 /  60  20   5  50
Datil...........................  59  84  62  84 /  40  20   5  60
Reserve.........................  56  90  57  91 /  30  20  10  50
Glenwood........................  69  97  70  97 /  30  20  10  40
Chama...........................  48  81  49  83 /  40  10   0  30
Los Alamos......................  61  85  65  85 /  50  10   0  50
Pecos...........................  59  86  61  84 /  70   5   0  60
Cerro/Questa....................  46  83  49  82 /  50  10   0  60
Red River.......................  48  75  48  72 /  60  10   5  60
Angel Fire......................  46  80  44  77 /  40   5   0  60
Taos............................  54  88  54  87 /  50   5   0  40
Mora............................  54  85  54  80 /  30   5   0  60
Espanola........................  61  93  61  93 /  50   5   0  30
Santa Fe........................  61  86  64  86 /  80   5   0  50
Santa Fe Airport................  60  89  62  90 /  70   5   0  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  92  71  93 /  50  10   0  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  93  69  95 /  50   5   0  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  96  69  97 /  50   5   0  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  94  70  96 /  50   5   0  30
Belen...........................  65  96  67  98 /  60   5   0  30
Bernalillo......................  66  95  69  96 /  50   5   0  30
Bosque Farms....................  64  96  66  97 /  50   5   0  30
Corrales........................  67  96  69  97 /  50   5   0  30
Los Lunas.......................  65  96  67  97 /  50   5   0  30
Placitas........................  65  90  69  91 /  50   5   0  30
Rio Rancho......................  67  94  69  96 /  50   5   0  20
Socorro.........................  69  98  72  99 /  50  10   5  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  62  86  66  86 /  50   5   0  40
Tijeras.........................  63  88  66  89 /  50   5   0  40
Edgewood........................  60  89  62  89 /  40   5   0  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  59  90  59  90 /  50   5   0  40
Clines Corners..................  59  86  60  83 /  50   0   0  40
Mountainair.....................  61  88  63  88 /  40   5   5  40
Gran Quivira....................  61  90  63  90 /  40  10   5  50
Carrizozo.......................  68  93  71  94 /  50  20  10  40
Ruidoso.........................  62  85  64  84 /  40  40  10  60
Capulin.........................  59  88  57  78 /  40  20  10  60
Raton...........................  57  92  59  84 /  30  10   0  60
Springer........................  60  94  60  87 /  30  10   0  60
Las Vegas.......................  59  88  59  81 /  30   5   0  60
Clayton.........................  67  96  66  83 /  30  10  10  30
Roy.............................  64  93  63  84 /  20  10   0  50
Conchas.........................  69  99  69  93 /  40   5   0  30
Santa Rosa......................  66  95  67  90 /  40   5   0  30
Tucumcari.......................  71 101  69  93 /  20   0   0  20
Clovis..........................  71  99  70  94 /  20   5  10  30
Portales........................  72 100  71  94 /  20   5   5  20
Fort Sumner.....................  71  98  70  94 /  30   5   5  20
Roswell.........................  76 103  76 101 /  20  10  10  20
Picacho.........................  67  95  69  93 /  30  40  10  50
Elk.............................  64  92  66  91 /  40  50  10  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ201-202-204>207-
211>224-226-229-233-239.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...11

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