Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1158 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 219 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The threat of flash flooding from locally heavy rainfall
peaks today and Thursday. Slow moving storms developing over the
high terrain will put recent burn scars under the gun this afternoon
and evening. This remains true Thursday, albeit with faster storm
motions. After a break in precipitation chances Friday, a return of
moisture enters eastern NM with thunderstorms and heavy rain
favoring the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and adjacent high plains of
eastern NM. Sunday sees monsoonal moisture shift the main daily
thunderstorm chances and threat of flash flooding to the western
half of the forecast area. This shift in daily thunderstorm activity
over western and northern NM looks to stay true well into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 219 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A pattern more typical of late July and early August will impact the
region thru Thursday. The 00Z KABQ PWAT of 0.89" was near the 90th
percentile for late June and that was actually lower than the past
few days. The latest water vapor and composite radar shows a well-
defined perturbation near Flagstaff, AZ drifting northeast toward
the Four Corners on the western periphery of the upper level high.
The 700-500mb high centroid will drift east into the TX panhandle
today and allow deepening southeast flow to advect abundant Gulf
moisture into NM. The combination of deep moisture, strong
heating, abundant instability, orographic forcing, and lift with
the Four Corners disturbance will allow numerous showers and
storms to form over NM this afternoon. 00Z PWATs are progged to
increase to near 1.2" at KABQ with values closer to 1.7" over the
southeast plains. Slow storm motions with abnormally high moisture
will allow any cells that form to produce torrential rainfall.
The Flash Flood Watch was expanded to include portions of western
NM where 00Z CAMs indicated cells developing over the high terrain
of western NM then drifting northward toward Gallup by late day.
Northeast NM will be under the influence of stronger
west/northwest flow aloft which will increase the potential for
strong to severe storms. Effective bulk shear values near 30kt
will exist in an environment with MLCAPE values between 1000-2000
J/kg with strengthening moist, low level southeasterly inflow.
Storms that form over the Raton Ridge are likely to develop
upstream into a cluster of storms with hail and damaging winds as
cold pools strengthen early this evening. The latest SPC
Convective Outlook shows a large 'Slight Risk' area for northeast
NM. So in addition to the flash flood threat today, a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is also possible.

An area of rain with embedded storms may persist well into tonight
across northern and central NM as the perturbation from the Four
Corners evolves into an elongated trough axis within central NM.
This trough axis is depicted well by the 325K theta-E ridge axis
draped over the region Thursday morning. Another daily PWAT record
will likely be broken at KABQ as guidance indicates values between
1.3" and 1.5" for 12Z 6/27. The June monthly record is 1.35" which
may be topped as well. Increasing west/southwest flow aloft
approaching from the west will shunt the mid level trough axis
eastward Thursday afternoon which will enhance lift along and east
of the Cont Divide. MLCAPE values remain high over the entire area
with bulk shear values between 30 and 40kt. Storm motions will
increase however training cells are possible as linear segments
align with southwest to northeast steering flow. Stationary cells
may latch onto north-south terrain features which will exacerbate
the flash flood potential in areas that become saturated from heavy
rains today and tonight. A Flash Flood Watch was issued for a larger
area Thursday, including the Rio Grande Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Friday begins the long term period with a relative
break in the wet weather pattern, thanks to the H5 ridge flattening
and drier zonal flow punch through the northern half of NM beneath
an upper low passing well north of the region along the 49th
Parallel (U.S./Canada border). Dewpoints fall into the 30s and 40s
most areas Friday afternoon with breezy westerlies. Saturday sees a
return of significantly higher precipitation chances as a weak
backdoor frontal boundary pushes into northeastern NM while the
leading edge of the next plume of monsoonal moisture begins to push
into the desert southwest. Easterly upslope flow through eastern NM
will favor convective initiation over central mountain chain. The
main 596dm H5 high will be centered well to the east over north-
central TX, yielding good convective potential over the west-central
mountains of NM along the Continental Divide as well. Storm motions
will generally be toward the north through western NM and toward the
east off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Subsequent late afternoon
and evening convection will likely be along colliding outflow
boundaries through central NM and the middle Rio Grande Valley.
Locally heavy rainfall threatening flash flooding will be a main
concern, especially for the Hermit's Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar.
While there are 50%-60% PoPs over the south-central mountains near
Ruidoso, there is some hope storm motions toward the north and
greater subsidence closer to the high will reduce the flash flood
threat there somewhat. Sunday sees the H5 high strengthen to 598dm
and nudge a tad westward over the TX Panhandle. This will shunt the
aforementioned plume of monsoonal moisture westward along the NM/AZ
border. Afternoon convection will thus be favored along and west of
the Rio Grande Valley over the high terrain, with storm motions
toward the north.

The H5 high begins to lose strength early next week falling to 594-
595dm, but the main plume of monsoonal moisture remains west through
western NM and eastern AZ. This will continue favor afternoon
convection over the western and northern portions of the forecast
area. Portions of western NM could end up seeing 1 to 2 inches of
total rainfall with locally higher amounts through Wednesday of next
week, possibly their most widespread chances for precipitation this
year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Main forecast challenge is timing of convection and duration at
TAF sites across the Land of Enchantment. Inherited TAF's largely
in great shape so incorporated just a few timing tweaks from
latest run of HRRR. TEMPO groups include mention of gusty winds.
Brief small hail and IFR conditions cannot be ruled out, but not
confident enough to explicitly put in TAF's. KTCC has relatively
highest chance of being impacted by strong/severe storms later
this afternoon. Amendments are likely as thunderstorms develop
through the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

There are no critical fire weather conditions for the next 7 days.
Very rich moisture in place over the region today and Thursday will
lead to numerous showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall.
Rain rates may exceed 2"/hr which may generate severe to extreme
flash flooding on recent burn scars. The weather setup will be
different today and Thursday, with slow-moving storms today followed
by faster cells Thursday but with training motions possible. Heavy
rainfall from today will provide the antecedent conditions for the
more extreme flooding Thursday. A downtick in storm coverage is
likely on Friday followed by another surge of moisture into the
region Saturday thru Monday. The weekend looks like more of a
traditional south-north monsoon burst pattern over central and
western NM. More torrential rainfall will be possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  91  66  86  63 /  30  50  60  20
Dulce...........................  89  53  82  48 /  40  50  70  20
Cuba............................  87  59  80  57 /  50  70  80  30
Gallup..........................  88  57  83  56 /  50  50  70  20
El Morro........................  84  58  79  58 /  80  70  80  30
Grants..........................  88  58  83  56 /  80  80  80  20
Quemado.........................  84  60  81  58 /  90  50  70  30
Magdalena.......................  89  65  83  64 /  70  60  80  40
Datil...........................  84  61  80  60 /  90  60  80  30
Reserve.........................  90  58  87  56 /  60  60  70  20
Glenwood........................  96  70  94  68 /  50  40  50  10
Chama...........................  84  52  76  48 /  60  60  80  30
Los Alamos......................  87  64  79  61 /  60  60  90  30
Pecos...........................  87  60  81  61 /  70  60  70  30
Cerro/Questa....................  85  50  77  47 /  70  60  80  30
Red River.......................  76  50  70  48 /  70  60  80  30
Angel Fire......................  79  48  75  47 /  70  50  80  20
Taos............................  89  58  81  53 /  50  60  70  20
Mora............................  85  55  81  55 /  80  50  70  20
Espanola........................  95  64  86  61 /  50  60  70  20
Santa Fe........................  88  63  81  61 /  60  60  70  30
Santa Fe Airport................  92  64  84  61 /  50  60  70  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  94  69  87  68 /  50  60  70  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  96  69  89  67 /  40  60  60  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  98  69  91  67 /  40  50  50  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  96  70  88  68 /  40  50  60  20
Belen...........................  98  68  91  66 /  40  60  60  30
Bernalillo......................  96  69  89  68 /  40  50  60  20
Bosque Farms....................  98  66  91  64 /  40  60  60  30
Corrales........................  96  69  90  68 /  40  50  60  20
Los Lunas.......................  98  68  91  66 /  40  60  60  30
Placitas........................  91  67  86  66 /  40  60  70  30
Rio Rancho......................  95  69  88  68 /  40  50  60  20
Socorro......................... 100  71  93  70 /  50  60  60  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  87  63  81  63 /  50  60  70  30
Tijeras.........................  90  65  84  63 /  50  60  70  30
Edgewood........................  91  62  85  61 /  60  60  60  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  93  60  86  59 /  60  60  60  30
Clines Corners..................  86  60  81  60 /  70  60  60  30
Mountainair.....................  90  62  84  61 /  60  70  70  40
Gran Quivira....................  90  62  84  62 /  70  70  70  40
Carrizozo.......................  94  68  89  68 /  60  70  70  50
Ruidoso.........................  85  62  80  63 /  80  60  80  40
Capulin.........................  87  60  83  59 /  60  50  60  10
Raton...........................  90  60  87  58 /  70  30  60  10
Springer........................  93  63  88  61 /  70  30  60  10
Las Vegas.......................  86  60  82  60 /  70  60  70  20
Clayton.........................  95  68  89  68 /  40  50  30  10
Roy.............................  92  64  86  64 /  60  60  50  10
Conchas.........................  99  69  93  70 /  30  70  30  20
Santa Rosa......................  95  68  88  68 /  40  60  50  20
Tucumcari.......................  99  69  94  72 /  20  60  10  10
Clovis..........................  99  71  95  72 /  30  50  20  10
Portales........................ 100  71  96  73 /  20  40  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  99  71  92  71 /  40  60  20  20
Roswell......................... 102  75 100  76 /  30  50  20  20
Picacho.........................  95  68  91  67 /  60  50  70  30
Elk.............................  93  64  90  64 /  80  60  70  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ202-204>207-211-214-215-
217-222-223-226-229-233-239.

Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for
NMZ201-202-204>207-211>224-226-229-233-239.

&&

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...53