Flash Flood Warning 253, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
244 PM MDT Thu Sep 5 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Thu Sep 5 2024

A backdoor cold front is progressing southwest across the area and
will result in a strong east canyon wind into the Rio Grande and
Upper Tularosa Valleys this evening. The front is also kicking off
storms this afternoon across north central NM, but coverage and
intensity are both forecast to trend up going into early evening as
storms move southeast across central and into south central NM.
Some storms may become strong to severe and flash flooding is
possible on area burn scars. A slow warming trend is forecast this
weekend through early next week, with daytime temperatures rising
above normal most area by Tuesday. Daily rounds of storms are
forecast from this weekend through early next week, but will be
limited in coverage and favor the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Thu Sep 5 2024

A sharp shortwave trough/weakly closed low over Colorado is shifting
southward this afternoon. An attendant cold front push into
northeast NM and spilled through the gaps of the Central Mt Chain
this morning. Moist low level upslope combined with lift from the
upper trough has allowed showers and thunderstorms to develop over
the northern mountains. These storms will continue to increase in
coverage through the afternoon and evening as they shift southward.
Heavy rainfall will be a concern, as flash flood warnings have
already been issued for Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon and elsewhere.
Enough instability is also in place for a few storms to become
strong or severe through the evening, including within the ABQ Metro
area. Strong wind gusts seem to be the primary threat though some
hail is also possible.

As storms east of the Central Mt Chain slide southward, surface high
pressure will build in behind them which will effectively reinforce
the cold front from this morning and push it farther westward.
Though a strong or severe storm may bring strong winds to ABQ, an
east canyon wind is also expected through the evening due to the
increasing pressure gradient. Gusts up to 50 mph will be likely, and
a Wind Advisory has been issued to account for this. State Fair
attendees will need to be prepared for adverse weather this evening.

Another concern this evening is the burn scars around Ruidoso. CAMs
have been hinting at thunderstorms developing mid to late afternoon
over or near Sierra Blanca peak, potentially impacting the South
Fork burn scar, but the bigger complex of storms will impact the
area between 7pm and midnight. It's possible more than one round of
storms will impact these burn scars.

Storm coverage will decrease after midnight, though isolated showers
will remain possible across eastern NM. Low clouds will again be
possible, but the strong winds should limit the fog potential.

On Friday, the upper level high will shift eastward a bit more over
NM as a upper level trough moves over the PacNW. Conditions will be
fairly stable under the high. Thus only isolated thunderstorm
activity is expected mainly over the southern reaches of the CWA, to
include near Ruidoso.  Near to below normal temperatures are
expected. Quiet conditions are expected Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Thu Sep 5 2024

The upper high is forecast to weaken from 592dam to 590dam at 500mb
over the weekend and hold over the Four Corners bringing a slow
warming trend, mainly due to recovery from the current backdoor
cold front, with rounds of daytime heating triggered convection.
Coverage will trend up slightly Sunday compared to Saturday,
mainly due to improved instability from warmer temperatures. The
upper high is forecast to weaken further Monday through Wednesday
as an upper level trough/low along the west coast moves inland
toward the Great Basin. Lower pressure heights associated with the
upper level trough/low will spread over western NM by Thursday as
the trough moves slowly east into the Intermountain West,
bringing stronger winds in the lower boundary layer. Plenty of
forecast uncertainty beyond Thursday of next week given
differences among the 12Z medium range model solutions with the
handling of the upper level trough/low moving east across the
Intermountain West and potential to pick up tropical moisture from
near the Baja Peninsula.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Thu Sep 5 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are already beginning to develop across
north central and northeast NM late this morning. These storms
will increase in coverage and intensity through mid afternoon
across northern NM. Storms will generally shift south-
southeastward and track across much of central and eastern NM
through the evening hours. MVFR cigs/vsby in heavy rain as well
as gusty winds in excess of 40kt and hail will be possible with
the stronger storms. Additionally, the backdoor cold front that
has weakly pushed through the gaps of the central mountain chain
will be reinforced by the convection today, and a stronger gap
wind will impact KABQ/KSAF this evening. Gusts up to 45kt will be
possible, though thunderstorms in the vicinity of ABQ may alter
the direction at times. East winds will taper off late tonight.
Much of the thunderstorm activity will taper off by midnight,
though some showers may persist across eastern NM overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Thu Sep 5 2024

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to march south-
southeast through the evening, impacting much of central and eastern
NM. Some storms will have gusty winds, hail and heavy rainfall which
may lead to flooding. Much less activity is expected on Friday as
stable conditions will prevail across the area. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorm activity will return this weekend and into
early next week favoring the northern mountains as moisture is
recycled under the upper high. Temperatures will gradually warm as
well. By the middle of next week, daytime RH values may drop below
15 percent across portions of western NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  58  85  57  87 /   0   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  43  81  47  82 /  10   5   5  20
Cuba............................  48  78  50  80 /  10   5   0  10
Gallup..........................  49  84  50  84 /   0   5   0  10
El Morro........................  52  78  48  80 /  10   5   0  10
Grants..........................  52  81  47  83 /  10   5   0  10
Quemado.........................  52  79  50  81 /  10   5   5   5
Magdalena.......................  55  76  53  78 /  50   5   0   0
Datil...........................  51  75  48  78 /  30  10   0   0
Reserve.........................  50  84  49  85 /  20  20   5   0
Glenwood........................  57  86  57  87 /  20  30   5   0
Chama...........................  41  74  44  76 /  20   5   5  20
Los Alamos......................  52  74  54  78 /  50   5   0  10
Pecos...........................  48  74  49  77 /  70  10   0  10
Cerro/Questa....................  42  73  46  77 /  40   5   0  20
Red River.......................  37  64  39  66 /  50   5   0  30
Angel Fire......................  33  69  34  70 /  60  10   0  30
Taos............................  41  76  45  79 /  40   5   0  20
Mora............................  43  71  43  76 /  70  10   0  30
Espanola........................  52  82  53  86 /  50   5   0  10
Santa Fe........................  50  76  52  79 /  70   5   0  10
Santa Fe Airport................  51  80  51  82 /  60   5   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  58  81  59  84 /  70   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  59  83  60  86 /  70   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  58  84  59  88 /  60   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  60  83  59  87 /  50   0   0   0
Belen...........................  58  84  56  86 /  70   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  58  84  58  88 /  50   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  56  83  56  86 /  70   5   0   0
Corrales........................  58  85  58  88 /  50   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  57  83  56  86 /  70   5   0   0
Placitas........................  55  80  56  84 /  60   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  60  83  59  87 /  50   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  60  86  60  87 /  60   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  74  51  78 /  70   5   0   5
Tijeras.........................  54  77  53  80 /  70   5   0   5
Edgewood........................  51  76  49  81 /  70   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  49  78  46  82 /  70   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  48  73  50  76 /  70   5   0   0
Mountainair.....................  51  75  49  79 /  80   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  51  75  49  79 /  80   5   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  58  79  55  81 /  70  10   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  51  69  50  72 /  70  30   5  10
Capulin.........................  46  76  49  77 /  30   5   0  30
Raton...........................  46  79  48  82 /  30   5   0  30
Springer........................  49  79  49  82 /  50   5   0  20
Las Vegas.......................  46  74  47  78 /  70   5   0  10
Clayton.........................  55  79  56  82 /  20   0   0  10
Roy.............................  52  77  52  79 /  50   5   0  10
Conchas.........................  60  83  58  86 /  50   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  58  79  56  81 /  60   5   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  58  82  56  84 /  30   5   0   5
Clovis..........................  59  83  59  84 /  30   5   0   5
Portales........................  59  83  59  85 /  30   5   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  60  82  58  84 /  60   5   0   5
Roswell.........................  64  86  63  86 /  70  10   5  10
Picacho.........................  59  78  58  79 /  90  10   0  10
Elk.............................  54  75  54  79 /  80  20   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ219.

Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215-229.

Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ226.

&&

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
304 PM MDT Thu Sep 5 2024

NMZ231-232-052130-
Eastern San Miguel County-Harding County-
304 PM MDT Thu Sep 5 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SAN MIGUEL AND WEST
CENTRAL HARDING COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM MDT...

At 304 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Solano, or 14 miles southwest of Mosquero, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern San
Miguel and west central Harding Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 10396 3551 10429 3577 10439 3578 10438
      3578 10437 3579 10436 3587 10420
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 327DEG 16KT 3567 10418

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Guyer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
330 PM MDT Thu Sep 5 2024

NMZ211-217-052200-
Espanola Valley-Jemez Mountains-
330 PM MDT Thu Sep 5 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOS ALAMOS...EASTERN SANDOVAL
AND NORTHWESTERN SANTA FE COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM MDT...

At 330 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bandelier National Monument, or near Los Alamos, moving southeast at
5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Los Alamos, White Rock, Bandelier National Monument, and Frijoles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3588 10619 3583 10617 3579 10620 3577 10622
      3576 10625 3574 10626 3574 10640 3588 10640
      3591 10629
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 332DEG 5KT 3583 10633

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Guyer

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