Flash Flood Warning 237, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1154 AM MDT Wed Aug 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 28 2024

Another active Monsoon day is forecast, with scattered to
numerous showers and storms across central and western NM. Some
storms may produce locally heavy rainfall and result in flash
flooding on and near area burn scars. Drier air will overtake
western and portions of central NM Thursday, leading to a downtick
in thunderstorm coverage. A backdoor front will move through
early Friday and replenish moisture, leading to an uptick in
thunderstorm coverage by late day with the potential for locally
heavy rainfall. Chances for storms will persist through the
weekend, but trend down some by Sunday. Temperatures will trend
down and be below normal most areas by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 28 2024

A broad upper level low pressure system tracking slowly eastward
across the northern Rockies and a high pressure system over the
southeast US will continue to draw rich monsoon moisture northward
over the forecast area today and tonight. Satellite imagery early
this morning depicts a disturbance in the monsoon flow over the
southwest mountains inching northeastward toward Albuquerque and
Santa Fe. Models are in good agreement on the disturbance passing
northeastward over the Albuquerque and Santa Fe areas this afternoon
and evening, then slowly eastward across northeast NM on Thursday.
As a result, scattered-to-numerous showers and thunderstorms are
forecast this afternoon and evening, except for dry weather on the
far eastern plains until this evening when isolated showers and
storms are forecast there.  In the wake of the disturbance on
Thursday, drier air is forecast to move into the forecast area from
the northwest with dry weather forecast from the Albuquerque area
northeastward to Farmington and Gallup.  Elsewhere, scattered-to-
numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday.  PWATs
generally around 1.0-1.2" in most places today should enable some
storms to produce locally heavy rainfall with a risk of flash
flooding mainly below recent burn scars, urban areas, areas with
steep terrain, and other locations where the ground is already
saturated from recent heavy rainfall.  PWATs will trend downward as
the drier air moves into central and northwest areas on Thursday,
but remain in the 1.0-1.2" range along and east of the central
mountain chain where the risk of locally heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding will persist.  With this forecast package
we will issue a Flood Watch for flash flooding below the recent burn
scars of the Jemez, Sangre de Cristo, and Sacramento Mountains from
late this morning until mid evening.

The rich moisture, precipitation, and cloud cover will hold high
temperatures near to as much as 12 degrees below 1991-2020 averages
this afternoon, except up to 4 degrees above the averages along the
eastern border. As the drier air moves in on Thursday, high
temperatures should climb within 3 degrees either side of 30-year
averages areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 28 2024

Weak northwesterlies will continue to steer drier air into western
and central NM Thursday night as an upper high builds up over the
Great Basin. Convection will persist into the evening hours
along/east of the central mountain chain before diminishing with
the loss of daytime heating. A backdoor front will slide southwest
across the area Friday and replenish moisture west to the
Continental Divide, setting the stage for a more active day
relative to Thursday. A gusty east canyon/gap wind into the RGV is
forecast Friday, but will likely remain well below advisory
threshold. The potential for locally heavy rainfall and burn scar
flooding will be back on the uptrend Friday afternoon/evening.
The upper high is forecast to shift east to over CO this weekend,
with deep easterly flow developing over NM. Above normal PWATs
will reside across southern NM this weekend, but relative cooler
temperatures may limit instability and rainfall amounts. Some
drying of the atmosphere is forecast across northern NM where
PWATs will fall to near/below normal, which will limit coverage of
convection. The heavy rainfall signal for the weekend that was in
the model data a few days ago is no longer there, so lower
forecast confidence on any significant impacts over the weekend.
Temperatures will continue to trend down most areas over the
weekend and generally be below normal, with highs in the 70s and
80s. The upper high over CO is forecast to weaken somewhat early
next week and shift east slightly, potentially allowing moisture
to creep north into our area and resulting in an uptick in
thunderstorm coverage. However, disagreement among the 00z medium
range model solutions with the handling of the upper high beyond
the weekend is resulting in lower forecast confidence at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Wed Aug 28 2024

A complex weather scenario is at hand today with rich moisture
over the area and several mesoscale convective vortices drifting
toward the north from southern NM. A remnant area of rain from
overnight near Socorro is still drifting northwest toward Grants.
This cluster may develop into a larger cluster of storms across
northwest NM later today between Cuba, Gallup, and Farmington. The
areas with clearing skies late this morning will be favored for
more vigorous storm development thru 2pm. Direct hits will be
capable low MVFR vsbys in heavy rainfall. Gusty winds and frequent
lightning strikes are also expected. Storms may then develop into
a larger area of rain this evening as one of the more organized
convective vortices moves slowly northeast thru central NM. This
may lead to several hours of low VFR rain with embedded TSRA
between roughly 6pm and midnight. SHRA may linger until sunrise
Thursday within central NM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 28 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through at least
the next seven days. Rich monsoon moisture will remain in place with
Scattered-to-numerous showers and thunderstorms favoring central and
western areas today, then mainly southern and eastern areas on
Thursday.  Thursday night and Friday a moist backdoor front will
push through eastern then central areas invigorating thunderstorm
activity areawide, except locally near the Four Corners. Models
depict a mid-level high pressure system building over UT and CO
Friday through the weekend, then migrating over the fire weather
forecast area early in the coming work week; although, there are
still significant model differences on what will happen early next
week. As a result, thunderstorm coverage and rainfall intensity
should trend downward over the weekend, except over the southern
fringe of the fire weather forecast area where an easterly wave
passing over southern NM should produce the best storm coverage.
After mostly below normal temperatures for the remainder of this
week, readings should trend upward early next week, especially if
the high pressure system does move overhead.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  86  60  88  57 /   5  10   0   0
Dulce...........................  80  49  84  43 /  20  20  20   5
Cuba............................  77  54  83  51 /  50  40  20   5
Gallup..........................  79  52  85  47 /  50  20  10   0
El Morro........................  73  52  80  50 /  70  40  30   5
Grants..........................  76  52  85  51 /  60  40  20   5
Quemado.........................  72  52  81  53 /  70  40  40  10
Magdalena.......................  73  56  81  58 /  70  50  30  10
Datil...........................  70  51  79  51 /  70  40  50   5
Reserve.........................  75  52  86  48 /  70  30  40  10
Glenwood........................  79  60  90  62 /  70  30  40   5
Chama...........................  73  48  76  44 /  30  30  30  10
Los Alamos......................  75  57  80  55 /  50  50  50  10
Pecos...........................  75  54  79  54 /  60  60  70  20
Cerro/Questa....................  74  51  76  40 /  40  30  50  20
Red River.......................  66  47  66  42 /  40  30  60  20
Angel Fire......................  71  43  70  34 /  50  40  60  20
Taos............................  78  51  80  46 /  40  40  50  10
Mora............................  74  51  75  47 /  60  50  70  20
Espanola........................  83  59  88  53 /  50  50  40  10
Santa Fe........................  77  56  81  56 /  50  60  50  20
Santa Fe Airport................  80  57  84  54 /  50  60  40  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  80  62  86  61 /  60  70  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  82  61  88  61 /  60  60  20  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  83  61  90  59 /  60  60  20  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  82  62  89  61 /  60  60  20  10
Belen...........................  83  60  90  58 /  60  60  20  10
Bernalillo......................  84  61  90  59 /  50  60  20  10
Bosque Farms....................  83  59  90  56 /  60  60  20  10
Corrales........................  83  62  90  60 /  60  60  20  10
Los Lunas.......................  82  60  90  58 /  60  60  20  10
Placitas........................  80  59  86  58 /  60  60  30  20
Rio Rancho......................  83  62  89  61 /  50  60  20  10
Socorro.........................  82  62  91  61 /  60  50  20  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  75  54  81  54 /  60  70  40  20
Tijeras.........................  78  56  84  57 /  60  70  30  20
Edgewood........................  77  54  83  51 /  60  70  40  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  78  51  84  48 /  60  60  40  20
Clines Corners..................  75  52  78  51 /  60  50  50  30
Mountainair.....................  75  54  82  53 /  60  50  40  20
Gran Quivira....................  76  54  81  53 /  60  50  50  20
Carrizozo.......................  79  60  83  59 /  60  50  50  30
Ruidoso.........................  71  55  75  53 /  70  40  60  30
Capulin.........................  79  55  79  51 /  20  30  60  30
Raton...........................  83  55  83  52 /  20  30  50  20
Springer........................  84  56  83  53 /  30  40  50  20
Las Vegas.......................  77  53  80  50 /  50  50  60  20
Clayton.........................  86  63  86  59 /   5  20  50  50
Roy.............................  82  59  82  56 /  20  30  60  40
Conchas.........................  89  64  90  60 /  20  30  50  50
Santa Rosa......................  86  62  86  58 /  20  30  50  50
Tucumcari.......................  90  64  89  59 /   5  20  40  70
Clovis..........................  90  65  90  64 /   5  20  60  70
Portales........................  91  65  91  63 /   5  20  60  70
Fort Sumner.....................  90  65  90  62 /  10  20  40  60
Roswell.........................  92  70  93  68 /  10  20  40  40
Picacho.........................  82  62  84  59 /  50  30  60  30
Elk.............................  79  58  82  55 /  50  30  70  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ211-214-215-226-
229.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...42

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