Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
619 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 116 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms in far northeast NM late
this afternoon into early evening could turn strong to severe,
particularly in northeastern parts of New Mexico and along the
Texas line where large hail and damaging winds are the main
weather hazards. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible once again Wednesday and Thursday, mainly east of the
central mountain chain. For central and western NM, dry conditions
with generally light to moderate breezes are forecast for the
remainder of the work week. High temperatures are forecast to be
near seasonal averages for late May and early June.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 116 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Strong to severe thunderstorms in eastern NM this afternoon will
send rain cooled air westward tonight. A few showers or thunderstorms
are possible along this backdoor boundary/front as it encounters
the southern Sangre de Cristo mountains and central highlands near
Clines Corners. East canyon winds into the middle Rio Grande
Valley will start an hour or two after sunset, peaking just after
midnight around 35-40 kt in the ABQ metro. Areas of upslope
stratus clouds develop behind the front mainly north of I-40
overnight. As the east winds die off in the middle RGV toward
sunrise Wednesday, southwest flow aloft will mix down with daytime
heating, scouring out the Gulf moisture from the RGV and areas to
the lee of the central mountain chain. Enough residual moisture,
however, will be present Wednesday for isolated showers and
thunderstorms primarily over the Sangre de Cristo mountains and
northeast highlands during the afternoon. Additionally, a strong
to severe storm cannot be ruled out of northeast Union county
Wednesday afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging
winds the main hazards. Return southeasterly low level flow moves
into eastern NM Wednesday night, setting the stage for possible
strong to severe storms Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 116 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

As the northern and southern stream jets come more in phase with
one another Wednesday night, a short-wave trough will move through
NM Thursday. This feature will help get more strong to severe
storms going in northeast NM Thursday afternoon. Bulk shear
continues to look like a limiting factor Thursday afternoon with
the trough axis moving over the better thermodynamic parameters.
Ridge axis moves overhead on Friday and with northwest flow aloft
over the northeast quarter, more strong to severe storms develop
during the afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds are once again
the main convective threats both Thursday and Friday. This pattern
repeats on Saturday, with more in the way of strong to severe dryline
storms for eastern NM. By Sunday, another weak southern stream
trough moves into southern CA and southwest AZ, resulting in
increasing southwest winds for all areas.

After the above mentioned dry upper level trough translates east
of NM Monday night, an old friend returns to NM Tuesday and
Wednesday. This old friend is in the form of the monsoon high
setting up over NM toward the middle of next week. Keep in mind
that it's a gentler friend this year with less convection in the
EPAC. What goes up in the tropics and subtropics must come down in
the lower mid latitudes. In other words, the monsoon high is not
as strong as it was last year due to El Nino related convection.
It's that time of year and this monsoon season will most likely
start a tad late due to a stronger than average subtropical jet
stream in a weakening state due to a cooling EPAC. Once it
weakens to below average sometime in late June or early July, a
fairly robust monsoon is forecast for the reasons listed above.
La Nina and a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in
general, result in an active monsoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to impact the eastern
plains of NM. Large hail and erratic gusty outflows will serve as
the primary threats. Activity will either diminish or push out of
the CWFA by mid-evening. A rather well-organized outflow boundary
is currently positioned along a line from central Harding Co. into
eastern Chaves Co. This boundary will bring gusty easterly winds
in its wake, and eventually gap winds to the RGV, including both
the KABQ/KSAF terminals as it progresses westward this evening.
The strongest gusts in the RGV will occur between 06-10Z, and will
require an Aviation Weather Warning. In the meantime, widespread
MVFR/IFR ceilings are favored over the eastern plains through mid-
to late morning, including the KLVS, KTCC and KROW terminals. A
gusty afternoon is forecast for many locations on Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 116 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Gulf moisture will continue to move into the eastern plains
nightly this week with backdoor fronts and then mix out with
daytime heating an active dryline each day. Daily rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are expected on the eastern plains and
as far west as the Sangre de Cristos mountains. A mix of wet and
dry thunderstorms are forecast on the western edge of the
Gulf moisture, which could result in a few fire starts in the
northern mountains along the west slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
mountains Wednesday. For central and western portions of the state,
it will remain dry and warm with high temperatures near average
for late May into early June. Sunday and Monday continue to look
dry and windy areawide as westerly flow strengthens over the
state. The monsoon high is forecast to set up over NM during the
middle of next week, resulting in much less wind for late next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  49  88  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  38  83  38  82 /   0   0   0   5
Cuba............................  46  82  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  42  83  41  84 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  46  80  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  43  85  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  47  83  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  54  84  53  83 /   5   0   0   0
Datil...........................  49  82  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  41  87  39  88 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  58  90  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  40  77  40  76 /   0  10   0  10
Los Alamos......................  54  80  54  79 /   5  20   5   5
Pecos...........................  50  80  51  81 /  20  30  20  10
Cerro/Questa....................  47  75  48  74 /   5  30  10  20
Red River.......................  38  72  40  71 /  10  30  10  30
Angel Fire......................  30  74  33  73 /  10  30  20  20
Taos............................  41  81  41  81 /   5  20  10  10
Mora............................  44  77  45  78 /  20  40  20  20
Espanola........................  50  88  51  87 /   5  20   5   5
Santa Fe........................  52  82  53  82 /  10  20  20   5
Santa Fe Airport................  52  85  51  86 /   5  20  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  58  88  58  87 /   0   5   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  89  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  58  91  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  59  90  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  52  91  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  58  91  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  52  90  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  58  91  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  53  90  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  56  85  57  86 /   0   0   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  57  89  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  57  94  56  93 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  52  80  53  80 /  10   5   5   0
Tijeras.........................  49  83  50  83 /  10   5   5   0
Edgewood........................  48  85  48  84 /  10  10   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  46  85  45  85 /  10  10  10   0
Clines Corners..................  49  80  48  80 /  20  20  10   5
Mountainair.....................  48  84  50  83 /  10   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  49  84  51  83 /  10   5   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  56  89  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  51  82  53  81 /  10  10   0   0
Capulin.........................  47  75  50  77 /  30  50  30  50
Raton...........................  48  81  48  81 /  20  40  20  30
Springer........................  51  80  48  82 /  20  40  20  30
Las Vegas.......................  49  79  49  80 /  20  40  30  20
Clayton.........................  53  78  56  82 /  60  40  30  40
Roy.............................  52  78  53  81 /  40  50  40  30
Conchas.........................  58  86  58  89 /  30  30  40  20
Santa Rosa......................  56  83  56  87 /  20  20  30  10
Tucumcari.......................  56  85  59  87 /  30  30  30  20
Clovis..........................  58  83  61  92 /  30  20  20  20
Portales........................  58  85  61  95 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  58  88  59  92 /  20  20  20  10
Roswell.........................  64  94  63 100 /   5  10   5   5
Picacho.........................  55  88  55  92 /   0  20   5   5
Elk.............................  52  90  53  91 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...33

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
625 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     Hail             11 N Nara Visa          35.76N 103.12W
05/28/2024  E1.75 Inch       Union              NM   Trained Spotter

&&

MBD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
714 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     Hail             Logan                   35.37N 103.41W
05/28/2024  E1.00 Inch       Quay               NM   Fire Dept/Rescue

&&

DPorter

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
731 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     Hail             11 NW Ute Lake State Pa 35.53N 103.56W
05/28/2024  E1.75 Inch       Harding            NM   Public

&&

DPorter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
752 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

NMZ232-234-290215-
Eastern San Miguel County-Quay County-
752 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL AND
CENTRAL QUAY COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM MDT...

At 751 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of San Jon, or 11 miles east of Tucumcari, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tucumcari, Quay, and San Jon.

This includes Interstate 40 near Tucumcari and State Road 104
between Mile Markers 98 and 105.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
east central New Mexico.

&&

LAT...LON 3526 10382 3534 10363 3530 10348 3500 10318
      3486 10351 3494 10385
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 316DEG 24KT 3517 10352

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

16/46

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
828 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     Hail             10 ESE Tucumcari        35.09N 103.58W
05/28/2024  E1.00 Inch       Quay               NM   Trained Spotter

&&

MBD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
915 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     Hail             1 SW Wheatland          34.90N 103.37W
05/28/2024  E1.00 Inch       Quay               NM   Trained Spotter

            Lots of quarter sized hail and wind gusts up
            to around 50 mph.

&&

BTS