Flash Flood Warning 193, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1126 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2024

Latest hi-res CAM guidance and the fact there are clear skies and
50s dewpoints in the obs over the south-central mtns this morning
leads credence to diurnal convection firing up over the South-
Central Mtns near Ruidoso today. Given the combination of
showers/storms developing directly over or just west of the burn
scars in and around Ruidoso and slow and erratic storm motions
keeping rainfall over one location for an extended period of time,
opted to expand the Flood Watch to this area for today.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2024

The monsoon high centers itself around to just north of the Four
Corners area through Sunday. A better coverage of showers and storms
are expected today and Saturday across the mountain ranges spreading
to lower elevations come the evening and early overnight hours. The
high then elongates eastward early next week, with a typical
coverage of showers and storms across the northern and western
mountains spreading to lower elevations late in the day. Storm
motion will generally be slow and erratic. An uptick in storm
coverage looks possible beginning Wednesday, but especially late
week as the monsoon high weakens and shifts more over the south
central U.S. Temperatures will be seasonably hot remain hot with
widespread 90s to near 100 for many lower elevation areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2024

The center of high pressure at 500 mb will vary its position around
the UT/CO border for the next couple of days.  A moisture-rich, low-
level, southeasterly return flow will keep precipitable water values
around 125-175% of normal this afternoon and evening, when scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected; except for more
isolated activity over the far east central and southeast plains.
Some thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rainfall with a risk
of flash flooding, especially below recent burn scars, in other
locations where the ground is already saturated from recent heavy
rainfall, and in urban areas.  With this forecast package we will
continue the Flood Watch for the southern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains, east slopes of the Sangres, and Las Vegas area.  Will
expand the watch to include the Jemez Mountains, where radar
indicates some locations received 1-2 inches of rain on Thursday. Do
not have enough confidence to issue a Flood Watch for the Sacramento
Mountains at this time, since storms are expected to move toward the
west and northwest off the high terrain, and away from the burn
scars.  Although flash flooding is not likely in the Sacs, it is
possible given the rich moisture in place if storms can form
directly over the scars as some high resolution models indicate will
occur.  Will let the morning shift re-evaluate and update the Flood
Watch as needed.

On Saturday, the low-level return flow will abate as surface winds
shift out of the southwest across southern areas. As a result, PWATs
will drop between 100-125% of normal, which is enough for a few
storms to produce locally heavy rainfall as numerous thunderstorms
return to western and north central areas. Elsewhere, scattered to
isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast, except for dry
weather in the lower Pecos River Valley around Roswell.  High
temperatures will vary from a few to around 10 degrees above normal
both today and Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2024

Showers and storms across the forecast area gradually wane after
sunset with most activity dissipated around midnight. The 597 dam
monsoon high nudges a little south and becomes centered near
Durango, CO on Sunday. Storm coverage looks to be lower compared to
Friday and Saturday with the northern and western mountain ranges
being favored for storms. A lower coverage of storms is possible
across the Sacramento Mountains, including Ruidoso, due to some
drier mid level air moving in from the northeast. PWATs on Sunday
will be a touch lower at around 0.7 to 0.9 inches. Storm motion will
be slow to the southwest. The monsoon high then elongates towards
the south central U.S. Monday and Tuesday maintaining a strength at
around 597 to 598 dam and centered somewhere near the Four Corners.
Moisture and sensible weather elements will be similar to Sunday.
The monsoon high then begins to weaken Wednesday in response to
upper level troughing moving into the northern Rockies. Storm
coverage/placement and moisture availability on Wednesday looks
similar to Monday and Tuesday. The monsoon high then looks to center
more over the southern Great Plains late next week. Southerly flow
on the western flank of the high could help to increase PWATs to
over an inch resulting in better shower and storm coverage across
most areas outside of southeast NM. Temperatures will be near to
slightly above average with lower elevations generally in the mid 90
to around 100.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2024

VFR starts the current TAF period with afternoon convection
expected to commence over the high terrain over the next hour. In
fact, some updrafts have already started over the southern Sangre
de Cristo's. Scattered to numerous storms will slowly drift over
surrounding lower elevations late day and this evening. TEMPO and
PROB30 groups are included for this. A few showers/storms are
possible along the northwestern edge of the Caprock, and a PROB30
is at KTCC for this. An east canyon wind is again likely at KSAF
and KABQ this evening from convective outflow boundaries.
Conditions clear overnight heading into Saturday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2024

Critical fire weather conditions will remain at bay under an active
monsoon thunderstorm pattern over the next 7 days. The center of
high pressure in the mid levels will vary its position around the
Four Corners region today through the middle of next week, then
models suggest it may shift east of NM. Much of the forecast area
has a chance for showers and thunderstorms today through Saturday,
then the focus will be over climatologically favored western and
north central areas next week. High temperatures will generally vary
from a few to around 9 degrees above normal each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  67  96  67  96 /  30  20  20  20
Dulce...........................  51  93  52  93 /  30  40  30  50
Cuba............................  59  89  58  89 /  60  60  40  50
Gallup..........................  57  90  58  90 /  40  60  30  50
El Morro........................  59  85  58  85 /  60  80  50  80
Grants..........................  62  89  61  89 /  60  80  40  70
Quemado.........................  60  88  59  86 /  60  90  40  80
Magdalena.......................  65  88  64  89 /  40  50  20  40
Datil...........................  59  85  58  84 /  50  70  30  70
Reserve.........................  58  93  58  91 /  40  70  30  70
Glenwood........................  68  98  68  97 /  30  60  20  50
Chama...........................  51  85  52  85 /  30  60  30  60
Los Alamos......................  63  87  63  88 /  50  70  30  60
Pecos...........................  60  86  58  87 /  50  80  30  40
Cerro/Questa....................  51  86  52  88 /  40  50  20  50
Red River.......................  48  77  48  78 /  40  60  20  50
Angel Fire......................  43  80  40  81 /  40  60  20  30
Taos............................  52  90  54  91 /  40  40  20  20
Mora............................  53  84  53  85 /  40  70  20  30
Espanola........................  61  95  62  96 /  50  40  30  30
Santa Fe........................  63  88  63  90 /  60  60  40  30
Santa Fe Airport................  62  91  61  93 /  50  40  30  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  94  69  95 /  60  40  40  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  96  69  97 /  50  20  30  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  68  98  68  99 /  50  20  30   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  96  68  97 /  40  20  30  10
Belen...........................  66  96  67  97 /  40  20  30  10
Bernalillo......................  67  97  67  98 /  50  20  30  10
Bosque Farms....................  66  96  66  97 /  50  20  30  10
Corrales........................  67  98  67  99 /  50  20  30  10
Los Lunas.......................  68  96  66  97 /  50  20  30  10
Placitas........................  65  93  66  94 /  50  40  30  20
Rio Rancho......................  68  96  68  97 /  50  20  30  10
Socorro.........................  69  98  69  99 /  30  20  20  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  88  61  89 /  50  50  30  30
Tijeras.........................  63  90  63  91 /  50  50  30  30
Edgewood........................  59  90  59  91 /  50  50  30  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  57  92  57  92 /  50  40  30  10
Clines Corners..................  58  87  58  88 /  50  50  30  10
Mountainair.....................  60  88  60  90 /  40  40  30  10
Gran Quivira....................  60  88  61  90 /  40  40  20  10
Carrizozo.......................  66  91  67  94 /  30  20  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  60  84  60  86 /  20  30  10  20
Capulin.........................  56  85  56  87 /  40  30  10   5
Raton...........................  56  90  56  92 /  30  20   5  10
Springer........................  57  91  57  91 /  40  30  10   5
Las Vegas.......................  56  87  56  88 /  40  60  20  20
Clayton.........................  64  91  63  92 /  30  20  10   0
Roy.............................  61  88  61  89 /  40  30  10   0
Conchas.........................  66  97  66  97 /  50  20  20   0
Santa Rosa......................  65  93  65  93 /  30  20  20   0
Tucumcari.......................  66  96  66  97 /  30  20  20   0
Clovis..........................  70  98  68  98 /  20  20  10   0
Portales........................  70  98  67  98 /  20  20  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  68  97  68  99 /  30  10  10   0
Roswell.........................  73 101  72 102 /  10   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  65  94  66  96 /  10   5   5   5
Elk.............................  61  92  62  94 /  10  10   5  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ211-214-215-226-
229.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...24