Flash Flood Warning 172, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
304 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 302 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will persist this
evening and overnight. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be
possible across northeast and east central NM through the evening,
but heavy rain will be a concern areawide through tonight. Flash
flooding is possible on burn scars, urban areas and those with
recent heavy rainfall. Less storm coverage is expected on Monday,
but storms that do develop will still have potential for heavy
rainfall. Additional storms focused over the high terrain are
likely on Tuesday and Wednesday. A downtick in storm coverage is
possible Thursday, but may ramp back up Friday. Monday should be
the coolest day of the week for most, with temperatures generally
trending upward through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 302 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have developed across much of the high
terrain as well as portions of eastern NM. Storms are expected to
increase in coverage and intensity across north central and
northeast New Mexico later this afternoon and evening as stronger
forcing from a shortwave trough and associated jet dive into the
area. We may be seeing the beginning effects of this now across NE
NM. A few storms may be strong or severe across this area with
large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms should eventually
evolve into a cluster with a cold pool developing thereafter. At
this point, the severe weather threat will be mostly damaging wind
gusts. The cluster of storms will shift southward across much of
central and eastern New Mexico through the early morning hours on
Monday. The biggest concern continues to be a flash flood threat
from any storm today and tonight. The Flood Watch will continue as
is. The 12Z ABQ sounding boasted a 1.18" PW, which is only 0.09"
shy of the record for the date. With this abundant moisture and
the forcing from the shortwave, rainfall rates could be very high,
perhaps in excess of 2"/hr. Burn scars, urban areas and areas
that received recent heavy rainfall will be most susceptible for
additional flash flooding.

What happens tonight will have a large impact on what happens on
Monday. It seems likely that there will be lingering showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms across the southeastern third of the
CWA Monday morning. The cloud debris and cooler temperatures
should stabilize this area through at least early afternoon, but
if another MCV develops like this morning, that could produce lift
with additional storm development. It does seem likely another
round of showers and thunderstorms will develop over the northern
mountains in the afternoon before tracking southward and
potentially making it as far as the Sacramento Mountains in the
evening as latest CAMs suggest. Generally speaking, do not expect
storm coverage to be as great as today, due to the stability
across the east and lower PW's across the west, but we'll have to
see how much convection occurs tonight and what the cloud cover
situation is tomorrow. As we know, it only takes one storm to
cause impacts, and unfortunately, CAMs are suggesting the storms
will favor burn scar areas tomorrow and another Flood Watch may
be needed. However, it does seem like storms will diminish Monday
evening, as is more traditional for the monsoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Tuesday and Wednesday will feature showers and thunderstorms
focused across the high terrain. Tuesday should be less active
than Wednesday. On Wednesday, another shortwave looks to slide
southward on the east side of the upper high, which should add to
the available lift and allow storms to propagate off the high
terrain onto lower elevations. Colliding outflows should keep this
activity going well into the evening. On Thursday, a mid level dry
slot looks to rotate into NM from the northeast as the upper high
elongates from SoCal to eastern CO. The drier air should
significantly limit storm coverage, but there should still be a
few storms, at minimum, over the high terrain. On Friday, the
upper air pattern becomes quite messy. The persistent upper high
that has been over the Great Basin will weaken as an upper low
shifts eastward over the PacNW and Canada and a trailing Pacific
low shifts over CA. All-in-all, this will mean weakened steering
flow and any storms that develop Friday will have slow and erratic
motions. By the end of the weekend, multiple high centers may be
in play which will continue the potential for erratic storm
motion. Of course, this means that storms may move little and
given PW's still around one inch, heavy rainfall and flash
flooding may become a bigger concern. At this time, it still
looks like storms will favor western and central areas with
development over the high terrain first.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Convection is already developing across northern and central NM
and is forecast to increase in coverage and intensity through the
evening hours, bringing MVFR conditions to many terminals through
the evening hours. Short-lived IFR conditions can not be ruled-out
given some torrential downpours. Lower probabilities of MVFR
conditions at KFMN and KGUP. A strong east canyon wind will impact
KABQ later this afternoon and evening, with gusts to between
30-40kts likely. Convection will be slow to diminish overnight and
may impact KROW beyond midnight. Patches of low stratus are
forecast early Monday morning and may impact KSAF, KLVS and
possibly KROW with MVFR conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 302 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
week. Rather, daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected. Storms will be possible areawide for the rest of this
afternoon and tonight, with heavy rainfall possible. Storm
coverage will lessen on Monday, but scattered storms remain
likely. Storms will favor the high terrain on Tuesday and
Wednesday with storm motion becoming more southwesterly by
Wednesday. Mid level dry air looks to nose into NM from the
northeast around the upper high on Thursday which should limit
storm coverage once again. Storm coverage will ramp back up for
Friday into the weekend with storm motions becoming more erratic.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  62  90  62  93 /  20  10  10   5
Dulce...........................  48  82  47  86 /  50  60  30  30
Cuba............................  51  78  52  82 /  80  60  30  40
Gallup..........................  56  87  53  89 /  50  50  10  20
El Morro........................  55  79  54  83 /  60  70  30  40
Grants..........................  56  81  54  85 /  70  50  30  30
Quemado.........................  55  82  55  84 /  70  70  30  60
Magdalena.......................  58  78  58  82 /  90  50  40  50
Datil...........................  54  77  54  80 /  90  70  40  50
Reserve.........................  53  85  53  87 /  80  70  30  60
Glenwood........................  63  88  62  90 /  70  70  50  60
Chama...........................  44  72  45  77 /  70  80  40  60
Los Alamos......................  54  74  56  78 /  80  70  40  70
Pecos...........................  51  71  52  76 /  90  80  40  70
Cerro/Questa....................  44  72  44  78 /  70  60  30  50
Red River.......................  42  63  41  67 /  70  80  30  60
Angel Fire......................  40  67  39  71 /  70  90  20  70
Taos............................  47  77  48  81 /  70  60  30  40
Mora............................  48  68  47  74 /  90  90  30  70
Espanola........................  57  82  57  86 /  70  60  40  40
Santa Fe........................  55  74  55  79 /  80  70  40  60
Santa Fe Airport................  54  77  55  83 /  80  60  30  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  82  61  86 /  80  60  40  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  83  62  88 /  80  40  30  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  61  84  61  90 /  80  40  30  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  62  83  62  88 /  80  40  30  20
Belen...........................  62  85  60  88 /  80  30  30  20
Bernalillo......................  61  84  61  89 /  80  50  30  30
Bosque Farms....................  59  85  59  88 /  90  30  30  20
Corrales........................  60  84  61  89 /  80  50  30  30
Los Lunas.......................  60  85  60  88 /  80  30  30  20
Placitas........................  59  81  59  85 /  80  50  30  40
Rio Rancho......................  61  84  62  88 /  80  40  30  30
Socorro.........................  63  86  63  90 /  90  40  30  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  54  75  55  79 /  80  60  30  50
Tijeras.........................  56  77  57  82 /  90  60  30  50
Edgewood........................  54  76  53  82 /  80  60  20  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  52  77  51  82 /  80  60  20  40
Clines Corners..................  51  71  51  78 /  90  60  20  60
Mountainair.....................  55  76  53  81 /  80  60  30  40
Gran Quivira....................  55  76  53  80 /  90  60  30  40
Carrizozo.......................  60  79  58  84 /  80  60  30  40
Ruidoso.........................  52  68  51  74 /  80  70  40  50
Capulin.........................  51  70  50  79 /  80  60   5  30
Raton...........................  51  76  50  83 /  70  50   5  30
Springer........................  53  76  52  82 /  80  60  10  30
Las Vegas.......................  50  70  50  77 /  90  80  20  50
Clayton.........................  57  78  58  84 /  90  30  10  10
Roy.............................  56  73  55  79 /  80  50  10  30
Conchas.........................  60  79  59  85 /  90  50  10  20
Santa Rosa......................  59  76  58  81 / 100  50  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  59  79  58  87 /  90  40  10  20
Clovis..........................  62  78  61  85 /  90  60  20  10
Portales........................  62  79  60  85 /  90  80  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  62  79  60  85 / 100  50  20  10
Roswell.........................  66  82  64  88 /  90  70  30  10
Picacho.........................  60  76  57  81 /  90  70  40  30
Elk.............................  55  73  53  80 /  80  70  50  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ208>241.

&&

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...11