Flash Flood Warning 147, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1136 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 242 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

A Flood Watch is in effect again today for storms
producing locally heavy rainfall. Burn scar areas will be at risk
first where storms develop over the mountains, before generally
moving south and spreading out over surrounding lower elevations
late afternoon and evening. This general weather pattern will
persist each day well into next week, threatening flash flooding
where locally heavy rainfall occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Model H5 streamlines and 00Z RAOBs showed the monsoon high center
drifted west to between Flagstaff and Phoenix overnight. Forecast
guidance indicates this high will move very little today with north/
south steering flow to continue over NM. A near-repeat is expected
again today with showers and storms initiating over the northern and
central high terrain before 1pm. Another Flash Flood Watch has been
posted for burn scars and the nearby highlands of central NM where
heavy rainfall has occurred the past few days. The 00Z HREF still
indicates the 24-hr max QPF potential above 2" from the strongest
cells within the watch area. The Gila region has also seen heavy
rainfall the past few days and this area may be favorable again
today based on the higher NBM QPF probabilities. Showers and storms
will develop into the RGV by late afternoon and evening then taper
off along and south of U.S. 60 overnight.

Saturday is still expected to feature an increase in the coverage of
storms with torrential rainfall. An upper level shortwave moving off
the Front Range late tonight will help force a convectively-aided
backdoor front into eastern NM Saturday morning. This front will
serve as an additional triggering mechanism for storms with very
heavy rainfall along the central mt chain and nearby highlands.
A larger Flash Flood Watch is likely to cover this heightened risk,
potentially including the RGV and Gila region. Given the stronger
flow aloft in the wake of the upper shortwave there may be greater
coverage of strong to potentially severe storms over northern and
eastern NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

There's little change to the forecast in the long term
period beginning Saturday night and persisting well into next week
as the monsoon high remains centered over the Great Basin and
northerly flow aloft over CO and NM with an upper level troughing
pattern over the Great Plains. Saturday night storms look to track
south and coalesce once again over the central swath of the forecast
area, advancing south of U.S. Hwy 70 by late evening and the
midnight hour. Global model solutions are still resolving a subtle
change in the weather pattern Sunday with a shortwave perturbation
embedded within the northerly flow aloft working its way over
northeastern NM. This feature will help enhance convective potential
over northeastern NM, extending out from the Sangre de Cristo Mts.
Otherwise, thunderstorm activity will follow a similar pattern we've
seen in recent days favoring development over the high terrain
before spreading and track southward over adjacent lower elevation
areas late day and evening.

This pattern continues Monday through Wednesday. Storm chances look
to start trending down a tad by Tuesday and Wednesday as a sharp
trough embedded within the polar jet moving into the PacNW begins to
squish the monsoon high a bit. This may not even be a noticeable
effect on the overall sensible weather pattern however. Abundant
monsoon moisture, highlighted by PWATs of 0.90" to 1.20" will
continue to support moisture rich thunderstorms capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall that threatens flash flooding. 5-Day to 7-Day
rainfall totals continue to feature 3 to 6 inches of total rainfall
for areas along and adjacent to the central mountain chain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop over the
northern, central and western high terrain around 12 to 1pm then
move south on convective outflows thru sunset. Favored areas this
afternoon will include the central mt chain and adjacent
highlands of central and eastern NM, including KLVS. TAF sites
that get impacted directly will be capable of brief MVFR to IFR
ceiling and visibilities from heavy rainfall. Areas of rain with
embedded storms will converge in the lower RGV in the evening
before sunset impacting KABQ, KAEG, and KONM, with additional
showers and storms possible over the eastern plains through around
midnight. Midlevel clouds overnight will become more scattered
and few towards daybreak.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

There are no critical fire weather conditions forecast for the next
7 to 10 days. The risk for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding
will continue each day through the middle of next week. Storm motion
will be generally north to south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  95  66  94  63 /  20  20  30  30
Dulce...........................  89  51  87  48 /  60  40  80  70
Cuba............................  89  57  86  54 /  60  50  80  80
Gallup..........................  91  57  90  54 /  50  50  60  50
El Morro........................  83  57  83  55 /  70  60  80  80
Grants..........................  88  59  86  58 /  60  60  80  80
Quemado.........................  87  59  87  58 /  90  70  90  90
Magdalena.......................  86  63  86  60 /  70  70  90  80
Datil...........................  84  57  83  57 /  80  60  90  80
Reserve.........................  90  59  91  56 /  80  60  90  80
Glenwood........................  93  68  94  67 /  80  50  90  80
Chama...........................  81  49  78  46 /  70  50  90  80
Los Alamos......................  84  60  81  59 /  70  50  90  80
Pecos...........................  85  56  80  56 /  70  50  90  80
Cerro/Questa....................  83  47  79  43 /  70  50  90  80
Red River.......................  74  45  68  43 /  80  50  90  80
Angel Fire......................  77  43  72  41 /  80  50  90  70
Taos............................  87  52  83  51 /  60  50  90  70
Mora............................  81  51  76  49 /  80  50  90  80
Espanola........................  92  60  90  58 /  50  50  80  80
Santa Fe........................  86  59  81  59 /  60  60  90  80
Santa Fe Airport................  90  60  85  58 /  50  50  80  80
Albuquerque Foothills...........  91  66  89  64 /  50  70  80  80
Albuquerque Heights.............  92  67  90  64 /  40  60  60  80
Albuquerque Valley..............  95  67  92  64 /  30  60  60  80
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  94  67  92  65 /  40  60  70  80
Belen...........................  94  66  93  62 /  40  60  60  80
Bernalillo......................  94  65  92  64 /  40  60  70  80
Bosque Farms....................  94  64  92  61 /  30  60  60  80
Corrales........................  94  65  92  64 /  40  60  70  80
Los Lunas.......................  94  65  92  63 /  30  60  60  80
Placitas........................  90  64  88  62 /  50  60  80  80
Rio Rancho......................  93  66  91  64 /  40  60  70  80
Socorro.........................  96  68  96  66 /  50  60  70  80
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  85  60  82  58 /  50  60  80  80
Tijeras.........................  90  61  87  58 /  50  60  80  80
Edgewood........................  89  58  85  55 /  50  60  80  70
Moriarty/Estancia...............  88  56  85  54 /  50  60  80  70
Clines Corners..................  83  56  80  54 /  70  60  80  70
Mountainair.....................  87  59  84  56 /  50  70  80  70
Gran Quivira....................  86  59  84  56 /  60  70  90  80
Carrizozo.......................  88  65  88  61 /  60  60  80  80
Ruidoso.........................  80  58  78  56 /  70  50  90  80
Capulin.........................  84  55  77  52 /  60  50  70  40
Raton...........................  87  55  83  53 /  60  40  80  40
Springer........................  89  56  84  56 /  60  40  80  50
Las Vegas.......................  82  54  78  53 /  70  50  90  70
Clayton.........................  91  61  86  60 /  30  50  40  20
Roy.............................  86  60  83  58 /  50  60  70  60
Conchas.........................  93  65  89  63 /  30  60  50  60
Santa Rosa......................  90  64  86  61 /  50  60  60  70
Tucumcari.......................  92  65  90  62 /  20  50  40  40
Clovis..........................  92  66  91  66 /  20  40  50  50
Portales........................  92  66  91  66 /  20  40  50  50
Fort Sumner.....................  92  67  91  65 /  30  50  50  60
Roswell.........................  96  72  95  70 /  20  30  50  60
Picacho.........................  89  65  87  62 /  60  40  80  70
Elk.............................  85  61  84  58 /  70  40  90  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ211-212-214-215-222>224-
226-229.

&&

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...71