Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Las Vegas, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
129 PM PDT Wed Mar 15 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Storms are expected through early tonight becomes,
with thunderstorms producing hail, gusty winds and heavy rain. Dry
weather will follow the rest of the week but additional Pacific
moisture will provide chances for unsettled weather late in the
weekend. &&

.SHORT TERM...Through Thursday night.

Any lingering showers and thunderstorms will diminish through the
first part of the night as instability decreases. Scattered
precipitation wont just shut off at sunset though like we sometimes
see in convective situations as mid to upper level forcing will
continue to hold together precipitation chances, mainly in Mohave
County. Expecting precipitation to wind down slowly through the
night, with highest rusk for impacts through about 11pm. Flooding
and small hail will be the main concerns through the early
overnight. By early Thursday morning, the shortwave will move east
and weak anticyclonic flow will move in behind it. With it, drier
mid level air is also expected. This all will bring precipitation to
an end.

Thursday will be a quiet weather day. Precipitation is not expected
other than a very low chance for isolated showers in eastern Mohave
County in the afternoon due to upslope flow and residual weak low
level moisture. Temperatures will cool off about 5 degrees compared
to today as cooler air filters in behind the exiting system, which
will put most locations about 8-10 degrees below normal for this
time of the year. Northerly breezes are expected tonight and
Thursday morning before winds diminish Thursday afternoon with the
slacking pressure gradient, however impacts will be limited as gusts
of 25 to 35 MPH will be short lived.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday.

A more zonal pattern sets up as we head into the weekend. During
this time, ensemble guidance depicts several subtle shortwaves
passing through, with anomalous moisture (up to 150% of normal) in
tow. This may be enough to produce light precipitation, mostly tied
to upslope flow given the marginal forcing. The latest NBM give the
area less than a 20% chance of precipitation Friday night as the
first wave moves through. PoPs increase again Sunday afternoon, with
the NBM giving Lincoln and Mohave Counties, as well as the Sierra
and Spring Mountains, a 30-60% of precipitation. Snow levels for
both these possible events are forecast to be between 5500-6500'.
Other than the precipitation chances, the weekend looks rather
pleasant with temperatures a few degrees below normal and light
winds.

Early next week, PoPs become more widespread as another potential
atmospheric river looms in the Pacific. The exact timing, location,
and trajectory of this AR is still uncertain, as the GEFS favors
landfall in central/southern California while landfall in the Euro
ensemble is along the US-Mexico border. Despite details being rather
fuzzy, confidence is quite high in cool and wet conditions
continuing through next week. The CPC 6-10 day outlook gives our CWA
a 70+% probability of above-normal precipitation. It's the winter
that just won't quit.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, with the greatest chances
over the mountains. The best chances for storms near the terminal
should be between 00Z and 04Z, and any storm could drop ceilings to
3000 to 4000 feet and bring erratic, gusty winds and small hail.
South to southwest winds are expected through the day, occasionally
gusting as high as 25 knots, before shifting to the northwest
tonight. Northerly winds gusting 15 to 20 knots are expected
Thursday, especially in the morning, with quiet weather likely on
Friday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon and evening, primarily southeast of a line
from Rachel to Independence to Barstow. The main threats with
thunderstorms will be erratic, gusty winds, small hail, and low
ceilings with terrain obscuration. Dry weather and breezy northerly
winds are expected Thursday, with the strongest gusts of around 30
knots in the Colorado River Valley. Quieter weather is expected
Friday.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM...Nickerson
LONG TERM...Woods
AVIATION...Morgan

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1138 AM PDT WED MAR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HEAVY SNOW       5 NW MT. CHARLESTON     36.32N 115.70W
03/14/2023  E17.0 INCH       CLARK              NV   MESONET

            SNOWFALL WAS ESTIMATED BY THE BRISTLECONE
            TRAIL SNOTEL. SNOW BEGAN 3/14 0700 AND ENDED
            3/15 0700.

0926 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ESE RED ROCK CANYON   36.13N 115.43W
03/15/2023                   CLARK              NV   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FLOODING CLOSED BOTH DIRECTIONS OF HIGHWAY
            159.

0500 PM     HEAVY SNOW       ASPENDELL               37.24N 118.60W
03/14/2023  M12.0 INCH       INYO               CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW BEGAN 3/14 0800 AND ENDED 3/15 0200.

1014 AM     FLOOD            1 NE COLORADO CITY      37.00N 112.98W
03/15/2023                   MOHAVE             AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HILDALE STREET, CENTRAL STREET, AND ACADEMY
            AVENUE WERE CLOSED DUE TO RISES ON SHORT
            CREEK.

&&

MORGAN