Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Las Vegas, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
142 AM PDT Fri Sep 1 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Low pressure to our west will pull monsoon moisture
into our area today and Saturday with moisture lingering into
Sunday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today and
Saturday across Mohave, Clark, and Lincoln counties where storms
will pose an increased flash flood threat as well as a marginal
severe wind threat. Gusty winds associated with the low pressure
system will lead to gusts up to 50 mph across much of Inyo, Nye,
and Esmeralda counties today and up to 40 mph on Saturday. High
temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal over the next 7
days with dry weather expected on Labor Day and for much of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Friday through Sunday.

Active weather is forecast today through Sunday with shower and
thunderstorm coverage expanding across the eastern half of our
area. Scattered to numerous storms are forecast across eastern
San Bernardino, Clark, Lincoln, and Mohave counties today and
Saturday with coverage more localized to Lincoln and northern
Mohave counties on Sunday. Moisture pooled to our south is pulled
north into our area today by a low pressure system to our west.
Based on the RAP forecast, higher precipitable water values surge
northward later this morning reaching 1-1.50 inches across Lincoln
County and 1.50-2+ inches across the other county areas listed
earlier. Storms that develop in this high moisture environment
will likely produce high rain rates and excessive rainfall
amounts, resulting in an increasing chance for flash flooding. A
Flash Flood Watch is in effect today for southern Nye, Clark,
Lincoln, and Mohave counties including the Colorado River Valley.
The Thursday afternoon sounding in Las Vegas had 1.16 inch PWATs
primarily from moisture residing in the mid levels but forecast
soundings for today show deep layer moistening of the low-mid
level atmospheric profile with PWATs increasing to 1.50 to 1.75
inches in Las Vegas, indicative of what the RAP is forecasting.
Strong winds are another concern for today as they are expected to
develop later this morning across Inyo, Esmeralda, and Nye
counties. A Wind Advisory is in place for these areas where
southerly gusts up to 50 mph are expected. There will also be a
noticable decrease in high temperatures today with afternoon highs
around 10 degrees cooler than Thursday.

The Labor Day Weekend begins with higher moisture in place across
our eastern areas where a Flood Watch remains in effect through
Saturday evening. The low pressure system west of the area will
continue to add upper level support for more organized convection
on Saturday. Higher rain rate and excessive rainfall amounts will
result in an increased possibility of flash flooding across the
watch area.

The flash flood threat is mitigated or lower on Sunday as the low
pressure system moves east and begins to scour out the moisture,
bringing drier air to our southern areas and focusing storm
activity across Lincoln and northern Mohave Counties. In addition,
higher precipitation chances continue in the mountains of Clark
County on Sunday but overall, less moisture is expected to lead to
less intense rainfall rates.

Temperatures over the Labor Day Weekend are expected to be around
10 degrees below normal each day. Conditions dry out on Monday
with only a few isolated showers or storms indicated in northern
and eastern Mohave County. Dry weather and more pleasant conditions
are forecast Tuesday through Thursday with high temperatures
around 5 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Very active weather is expected today.
In the pre-dawn hours, a push of strong southeasterly winds from
distant thunderstorms will be possible. This could be accompanied by
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. After a short break,
thunderstorm chances near the terminal are expected to begin around
noon and continue through the evening and possibly into the night.
The main threats with storms will be erratic, gusty winds, heavy
rain, and low ceilings with terrain obscuration. Another active day
is likely on Saturday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Stormy conditions can be expected for much of the
region today, with thunderstorm chances spreading from southeast to
northwest through the day. The main threats with storms will be
erratic, gusty winds, heavy rain, and low ceilings with terrain
obscuration. Thunderstorm chances will begin to decrease from the
west on Saturday, but another active day is likely for northwest
Arizona, southeast Nevada, and extreme southeast California.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
157 PM PDT Fri Sep 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 ENE Fort Irwin        35.28N 116.62W
09/01/2023  M83 MPH          San Bernardino     CA   AWOS

            The KBYS AWOS reported a peak wind gust of
            83 mph due to a nearby thunderstorm.

&&

TB3