Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Las Vegas, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
327 PM PDT Thu Aug 10 2023

.SYNOPSIS...The remnant moisture and circulation from former
Tropical Storm Eugene will produce an upswing in showers and
thunderstorms across our region today. Storm chances will persist
through the weekend and early next week in the higher terrain of
Northwest Arizona and Southern Nevada, but coverage should trend
downward.

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.SHORT TERM...through Friday.

A low pressure system spinning off the coast of south-central
California will leave us under southerly/southwesterly flow aloft
through the weekend. The anomalous moisture associated with this
low, formerly Tropical Storm Eugene, is responsible for this
morning's showers and thunderstorms across southern Nevada,
northwestern Arizona, and south-central California. This morning's
band of storms has continued to push to the north this afternoon and
is currently in Lincoln County and southwestern Utah. Storm motion
has been fast enough with these storms that the only way we expect
to see flash flooding is via the training/backbuilding of storms.

High resolution models have begun to back off the possibility of
another wave of storms moving through southern Nevada due to cloud
cover limiting surface heating. However, with a favorable
mesoscale environment, storms that do manage to develop will have
the potential to result in strong gusty winds, periods of heavy
rain, frequent lightning, and non-severe hail.

On Friday we will see mid-to-upper level dry air push our
anomalous moisture to into Inyo, Nye, and Esmeralda counties. As
such, the Eastern Sierra, Owens Valley, and portions of
Esmeralda County will see the best precipitation chances. With
southerly flow pushing anomalous moisture into Inyo and Esmeralda
county, flash flooding will be a possible hazard. Elsewhere, we
will see more typical monsoonal convection where showers and
thunderstorms tend to favor areas of higher terrain.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday.

The weak cut-off low that was formerly Tropical Storm Eugene,
remain over coastal central/southern California over the weekend,
with guidance trending a little slower with its weakening. This
will tend to keep a more south or southeasterly mid-level flow
going a bit longer, and will help maintain PoPs through the
weekend, particularly north of I-40. Meanwhile, temperatures will
remain a few degrees below average.

Things begin to change early next week as the cut-off low finally
weakens and the subtropical ridge stretched across the southern US
expands westward.  This will tend to advect slightly drier air in
from the southwest and allow for a warming temperature trend. Some
lingering monsoonal moisture will hang on however, mainly across
Northwest Arizona and some of the higher terrain of the eastern
Mojave Desert where daily PoPs persist through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...East-northeast winds expected
through the afternoon in the wake of this morning's storms. Vicinity
storms appear to still be possible this afternoon, but
coverage/intensity is more uncertain given the morning convection.
If numerous or more robust storms can develop, gusty outflow winds
will be possible. Otherwise, generally light winds, gradually
favoring a southerly direction in the evening. South winds overnight
less than 10 knots. FEW-SCT mid-level and high clouds through the
TAF period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Outside of any convective influence, east-
northeast winds through the afternoon in the Las Vegas Valley.
Vicinity storms appear to still be possible this afternoon, but
coverage/intensity is more uncertain given the morning convection.
If numerous or more robust storms can develop, gusty outflow winds
will be possible. Typical, light winds overnight. Elsewhere, mostly
dry conditions with breezy south-southwest winds. Gusts of 20-25
knots expected. Vicinity showers possible at KBIH this afternoon,
but confidence is low. FEW-SCT mid-level and high clouds through the
TAF period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM...Stessman
LONG TERM...Outler
AVIATION...Woods

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