Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Las Vegas, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
150 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Entrenched moisture and strong high pressure to our
east will favor afternoon and evening monsoon thunderstorm
activity Monday and Tuesday. Conditions become less favorable
Wednesday through Friday with mainly dry conditions forecast. There
could be a resurgence of monsoon storms in Mohave County next
weekend when conditions become more favorable once again.
Temperatures will be more seasonal for the upcoming week with
highs forecast to be just slightly above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Monday through next Sunday.

Shortwave energy associated with a low pressure system northwest
of Vancouver Island is forecast to move into the PacNW Coast on
Monday which nudges the area of high pressure centered over the
Four Corners Region eastward to northcentral New Mexico and
southcentral Colorado. Moisture is forecast to remain entrenched
over the area however leading to another day of enhanced
shower/thunderstorm activity Monday afternoon across portions of
San Bernardino, Clark, Lincoln, and especially Mohave County.
Troughing over the northwest CONUS extends further inland on
Tuesday which further suppresses the high pressure ridge centered
over New Mexico. The trough influences lead to some drying across
our central and western areas, focusing the best chance of storms
to Mohave County with more isolated type storm activity as far
west as the Spring Mountains. The drying trend becomes obvious on
Wednesday with slight chances confined to the eastern portions of
Mohave County.

Dry weather is forecast for Thursday and Friday before monsoonal
flow becomes a little more favorable again next weekend and
potentially brings storm chances back to parts of Mohave County.
The drier weather could bring a slight uptick in temperatures late
in the week

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southwest wind gusting to 20KT through
the afternoon with periods of CIGs AOA 15kft. The potential for
convection will bring periods of erratic wind as thunderstorm
outflow approaches the terminal. Gusts of 35-40KT are possible with
stronger storms.

After 05Z, thunderstorm activity should diminish although variable
wind direction may persist with any lingering outflow winds. Winds
will eventually become light and diurnal overnight and continue
through Monday morning.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Showers and thunderstorms will impact several areas
this afternoon. The highest risk for thunderstorms with be in far
southern Nevada through western Arizona, with some showers possible
in southeast California. Sudden gusty winds to 40KT+, lightning,
CIGs to 10kft, and brief heavy rain will be possible with convection
today. Thunderstorm chances will linger through about 06Z before
quickly diminishing tonight.

Prevailing winds will increase out of the south to southwest this
afternoon. West to southwest winds expected at KBIH this afternoon
around 00Z. Winds tonight should follow diurnal wind patterns
however, overall confidence in the wind forecast for areas that may
be impacted by thunderstorms is low as outflows may influence local
winds. The highest risk for convective winds and outflows will be
through the Colorado River Valley where east or southeasterly
outflows may push through between 03Z-08Z.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

DISCUSSION...Salmen
AVIATION...Berc

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