Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Las Vegas, NV

411 
WWUS85 KVEF 080858
RFWVEF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
158 AM PDT Tue Aug 8 2023

.Warm, dry, and breezy weather today. Elevated fire weather 
conditions expected this afternoon, with areas of critical 
conditions north of I-40. Main area of concern will be the AZ 
Strip, where sustained winds over 20 mph and wind gusts up to 35 
mph are likely.

AZZ102-081815-
/O.CON.KVEF.FW.W.0003.230808T1800Z-230809T0300Z/
Northwest Deserts/Northwest Plateau-
158 AM MST Tue Aug 8 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR PARTS
OF MOHAVE COUNTY...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Arizona...Fire weather zone 102, especially
  areas north of Interstate 40.

* TIMING...Late this morning through this evening.

* WIND...Southwest wind 20 to 25 mph with gusts approaching 35 
  mph.

* HUMIDITY...Minimum humidity 5 to 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Morgan

358 
WWUS85 KVEF 081711
RFWVEF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
Issued by National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1011 AM PDT Tue Aug 8 2023

.Warm, dry, and breezy weather today. Elevated fire weather 
conditions expected this afternoon, with areas of critical 
conditions north of I-40. Main area of concern will be the AZ 
Strip, where sustained winds over 20 mph and wind gusts up to 35 
mph are likely.

AZZ102-081815-
/O.CAN.KVEF.FW.W.0003.230808T1800Z-230809T0300Z/
Northwest Deserts/Northwest Plateau-
1011 AM MST Tue Aug 8 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR PARTS
OF MOHAVE COUNTY...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Arizona...Fire weather zone 102, especially
  areas north of Interstate 40.

* TIMING...Late this morning through this evening.

* WIND...Southwest wind 20 to 25 mph with gusts approaching 35 
  mph.

* HUMIDITY...Minimum humidity 5 to 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1157 AM PDT Mon Aug 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Quiet and breezy couple of days before rain and storm
chances increase Wednesday through Friday. Precipitation potential
decreases but lingers over the weekend. Temperatures remain near or
below normal.
&&

.DISCUSSION...through the weekend.

Latest water vapor imagery shows an elongated ridge centered near
the El Paso area, extending west through Baja California and into
the east Pacific. This ridge will play a key role in our weather
over the next 7 days. In its current state, the ridge is keeping us
under dry southwesterly flow aloft. As a result, the majority of the
CWA remains dry through Tuesday, with seasonable temps and breezy
winds. Sustained winds around 20 mph and wind gusts up to 35 mph are
possible across the southern half of the CWA both afternoons.
Combined with relative humidity values between 5-15%, areas of
critical fire weather conditions are expected in the AZ Strip.
Humidity values over southeastern Mohave County will be slightly
higher due to moisture that has snuck up underneath the ridge. While
fairly shallow, it may be just enough to spark isolated convection
in this area, with latest NBM PoPs around 10-20%.

The aforementioned ridge is also steering what is currently being
called Tropical Storm Eugene. The system is currently traversing
cool waters, and will likely becoming a post-tropical cyclone this
afternoon. While the surface circulation is expected to dissipate
over the next 48 hours, the moisture and upper-level circulation
will continue with the steering flow, eventually rounding the
western periphery of the ridge and moving north into California and
the southern Great Basin. Despite the tropical origins, moisture
doesn't look overly impressive. Forecast PWATs top out around 1.3"
on Thursday, which is in line with typical monsoonal moisture. This
is probably due to the already weak nature of the system. As
moisture increases on Wednesday, so too do the PoPs. Rain/storm
chances are largely focused along and south of I-15 on Wednesday.
Precipitation chances in Las Vegas peak on Thursday as the vort max
swings through, with NBM PoPs at 30-40%. Rain probabilities also
spread farther north and west on Thursday, extending well into
Lincoln, Nye, and Inyo Counties. On Friday, convection will be
possible across the majority of our CWA, though areas south of I-40
may begin to dry out as evident in the latest NBM. The Wednesday-
Friday looks to be the most active, though a lot of the mesoscale
and finer details won't be resolved until the timeframe draws
closer. The degree of instability and low-level saturation will
dictate the heavy rain and strong wind potential.

Unable to phase with shortwaves traversing the US-Canada border,
model guidance keeps the circulation lingering over California or
off the coast in the form of a closed 500mb low through the weekend.
There's still a fair amount of uncertainty in the low's position,
how much remaining moisture it will have to work with, or if an
expansive dry slot develops. These aspects will play a large role in
precipitation chances over the weekend, which currently stand at 20-
40% over mostly our northern and eastern areas.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds to remain south/southwesterly
through the period. Similar to yesterday, expect gusty winds 20-25kt
through the afternoon and early evening. By 03z-05z, winds should
become a bit more southerly and decrease slightly, though a few
gusts to 15kt or so may remain through the overnight hours. Winds
likely to start to increase by 15z Tues, largely from the southwest.
Skies to remain mostly clear with no restrictions to visibility.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Diurnal winds to continue today, though perhaps a bit
stronger than normal owing to slightly stronger winds aloft. As
these mix down, we could see some of our windier spots, such as
KDAG, top out with gusts to 20-30kt. Winds to generally remain
south/southwest at all terminals except KBIH, where winds will turn
north/northwest after 03z Tues. Mainly clear skies expected area
wide with a few clouds at 15kft at KIFP/KEED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Austin

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