Flash Flood Warning 47, NWS Las Vegas, NV

223 
WGUS75 KVEF 122123
FFSVEF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
223 PM PDT Sat Aug 12 2023

AZC015-122330-
/O.CON.KVEF.FF.W.0047.000000T0000Z-230812T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mohave AZ-
223 PM MST Sat Aug 12 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM MST THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR NORTH CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY...

At 223 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of low-water crossings,
         creeks, normally dry washes and roads.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of North Central Mohave County, including the 
  Bar Ten Ranch.

This includes the following roads...
	Mount Trumbull Loop Road between mile markers 31 and 58.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3636 11362 3646 11355 3664 11344 3678 11331
      3666 11308 3640 11320 3622 11338

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

Planz

041 
WGUS75 KVEF 122230
FFSVEF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
330 PM PDT Sat Aug 12 2023

AZC015-122330-
/O.CON.KVEF.FF.W.0047.000000T0000Z-230812T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mohave AZ-
330 PM MST Sat Aug 12 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM MST THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR NORTH CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY...

At 330 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated that thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area have diminished. Between 1 and 1.5 
inches of rain has fallen and runoff continues. Flash flooding is 
ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of low-water crossings,
         creeks, normally dry washes and roads.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of North Central Mohave County

This includes the following roads...
	Mount Trumbull Loop Road between mile markers 31 and 58.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3636 11362 3646 11355 3664 11344 3678 11331
      3666 11308 3640 11320 3622 11338

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

Planz

691 
WGUS75 KVEF 122327
FFSVEF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
427 PM PDT Sat Aug 12 2023

AZC015-122337-
/O.EXP.KVEF.FF.W.0047.000000T0000Z-230812T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mohave AZ-
427 PM MST Sat Aug 12 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
NORTH CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3636 11362 3646 11355 3664 11344 3678 11331
      3666 11308 3640 11320 3622 11338

$$

Planz

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
440 AM PDT Sat Aug 12 2023

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoonal moisture will persist across the region this
weekend and through much of next week leading to chances for
thunderstorms to develop each day...especially over the mountains.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday.

South-southeast 700-500 mb flow will be in place across our region
today while a moderately moist and unstable air mass remains in
place. This is due to a closed upper low along the California Coast
currently near Point Conception which is forecast to slowly work its
way toward Los Angeles by this afternoon and park through Sunday.
This will result in a more southeast-east flow aloft across our
region Sunday. A recent mesoanalysis indicated precipitable water
values have decreased slightly with values generally between 0.75-
1.00" across most of our forecast area and surface dewpoints have
also dropped from 24 hours ago with readings in the upper 40s to
lower 50s. The air mass will be sufficiently moist and unstable
today (mean CAPE values 500-700 J/kg) to support another round of
scattered afternoon thunderstorms primarily initiating over the
higher mountains of our region then moving slowly toward the north-
northwest with the potential for training cells leading to isolated
heavy rainfall. Similar conditions will exist Sunday though storm
movement will be more toward the west-northwest. Some dynamic
support will be provided by the SoCal low, but surface heating will
be the main driver of convection. High temperatures will remain
slightly below normal and only vary a degree or two for most sites
each day, but any rain showers could locally limit temps from
reaching their full potential.

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday.

There continues to be agreement that the Pacific low keeping us
active over the weekend will shift westward with heights building
from the east. With the ridge setting up firmly over NM/WTX area by
mid week next week, temperatures are expected to rise several
degrees by Thursday and Friday. That will be enough to move our
region from a mostly minor heat risk regime to more widespread
moderate with some areas like KIFP and KHII reaching major levels.

Usually when temperatures rise with a building ridge in this manner,
moisture decreases. According to the GEFS/GEM/EC members, they all
to some degree lower PWAT values early next week as this low moves
off, but the approaching ridge will bring with it some trapped
moisture as well. So while PWAT anomalies fall to below average for
Monday and Tuesday, they recover heading into the mid and late
weeks. As a result, the NBM has continues to maintain 20-40% PoPs
across the eastern half of the CWA, all the way into next weekend.
This agrees well with the latest CPC 6-10 precip outlook.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds start off out of the southeast
this morning with speeds of 10 knots or less. In the afternoon,
winds maintain similar speeds but shift to the southwest.
Thunderstorm development is possible in the late afternoon and
evening along higher terrain around The Valley. Cloud bases will be
around 10kft. Some storms may produce strong outflows, leading to
gusty and erratic winds to the terminal. Outside of storms,
southwesterly winds remain overnight, becoming variable in the early
morning hours.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...The primary weather challenge is thunderstorm
development this afternoon and evening on high terrain in southern
Nevada, northwest Arizona, and the Sierra. Outflow from this
thunderstorm activity might reach KBIH, KDAG, and the Las Vegas
Valley sites, bringing bursts of gusty and erratic winds. Sudden
downpours are also possible with these storms. Outside of storms,
general diurnal winds are forecast for all terminals.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM...Adair
LONG TERM...Boucher
AVIATION...Meltzer

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