Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
313 PM MST Mon Aug 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Somewhat more typical monsoon weather is expected
this week with temperatures running closer to normal with
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms across much of
southeast Arizona. Drying out over the weekend and heating back up
again Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms developed
rather quickly after 1230 pm mainly across Cochise county with
lots of nickel to quarter size hail reports. These storms
possibly being aided by a very weak upper level disturbance that
was near Nogales this afternoon.days for scattered
showers and thunderstorms each day through at least Thursday. Not
every will see rain but those that do, could be locally heavy. Outside of Cochise county its
pretty quiet even with the significant increase in moisture over
the past 24 hours. Most recent CAMS showing different solutions
on what might occur over the next 6-10 hours. Some runs have
strong outflow moving out of Sonora MX and developing elevated
storms as far north as Phoenix. Others do not. Thus went with a
blend of models, leaning toward the NBM, with scattered storms
this evening into early Tuesday morning.

Moisture hanging around for most the week with Tuesday and
Wednesday likely being the more active days. Interesting to note
that the mid-level remnants of TS Eugene will move into southern
California Thursday. Low-grade monsoon forecast Friday into the
weekend.

Temperatures this week will remain several degrees above normal
before starting to warm up a bit over the weekend. Models
suggesting a return to excessive heat levels with record or near
record highs early next week under another strong high over the
state.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 09/00Z.
SCT -SHRA/-TSRA for much of the valid period with storms
developing either along outflow boundaries thru 08/10z and then
again after 08/19z due to daytime heating. Erratic wind gusts to
45 kts with any -TSRA. Otherwise SFC winds NW-WLY 10-15 kts
gusting up to 25 kts thru 08/03Z and once again after 09/18z.
At other times winds will follow diurnal trends and generally
remain under 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon through the weekend. Any storms that do form are capable
of producing erratic and gusty outflows. Daytime temperatures remain
a few degrees above normal before increasing this upcoming weekend
into early next week. Minimum RH in the lower elevations range
from 20-35% and 40-50% in the higher elevations today and
decreasing to 10-20% and 20-30% by the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...The consecutive day streak of highs 100 degrees or
hotter in Tucson now stands at 53 days. The probabilities thru
Friday of NOT hitting 100 degrees is less than 10% each day.
Looking ahead to early next week, the most recent probabilities
for hitting 110 degrees in Tucson is between 10% and 20%.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
520 PM MST Mon Aug 7 2023

AZZ503-504-080100-
Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys including Nogales-Tucson
Metro Area including Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail-
520 PM MST Mon Aug 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Pima
County through 600 PM MST...

At 519 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Valencia West and Ryan Field, or 14 miles northwest of Sahuarita,
moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southwest Tucson, Drexel Heights, Three Points, Pascua Pueblo Yaqui
Reservation, Valencia West, Summit, Tucson Estates, Tucson
International Airport, Saguaro National Park West, San Xavier
Mission and Ryan AirField.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 19 between mile markers 51 and 60.
 Route 86 between mile markers 154 and 170.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3198 11120 3212 11127 3229 11110 3204 11089
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 234DEG 10KT 3209 11114

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

WJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
527 PM MST Mon Aug 7 2023

AZZ503-504-513-080115-
Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green
Valley/Marana/Vail-
527 PM MST Mon Aug 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Pima
County through 615 PM MST...

At 527 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Green Valley, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sahuarita, Green Valley and East Sahuarita.

This includes Interstate 19 between mile markers 33 and 46.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3176 11115 3193 11120 3198 11084 3175 11079
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 260DEG 12KT 3184 11100

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GEL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
552 PM MST Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     Hail             6 S Safford             32.74N 109.69W
08/07/2023  E1.00 inch       Graham             AZ   Public

            Quarter size hail reported 10mi south of
            Safford.

&&

GRG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
710 PM MST Mon Aug 7 2023

AZZ503-507-513-080300-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-
710 PM MST Mon Aug 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Cochise and
eastern Santa Cruz Counties through 800 PM MST...

At 709 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
to just east of Patagonia, or 22 miles northeast of Nogales, moving
east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Patagonia, Sonoita, Elgin, Parker Canyon Lake, Fort Huachuca and
Canelo.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 82 between mile markers 21 and 31, and between mile markers 47
and 48.
 Route 83 between mile markers 3 and 31.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3148 11073 3166 11075 3171 11041 3139 11040
TIME...MOT...LOC 0209Z 263DEG 10KT 3159 11066

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

WJM

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