Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
222 PM MST Mon Jul 31 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms are likely across most of
the area this afternoon and evening. Some will be strong to
severe and capable of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.
Temperatures cool to near normal today through Wednesday. Rain
chances dwindle after Tuesday as drier air moves in. Hotter
temperatures return by Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms kicking off the early
afternoon. We've picked up some decent shear and brisk storm
movement while dropping from 1.5 inches PW to around 1.35 or so.
Latest HRRR still has us on track for elevated strong
thunderstorm coverage from mid afternoon into the early evening
hours. We're just barely holding on to a sub 100 temperature at
the airport (which would be the first since mid June), but will
likely push past 100 over the next hour or two.

For Tuesday, expect modest drying and weak subsidence as the
impulse that is helping to organize our storms today shifts
northward and continues to weaken. This will limit storm coverage
quite a bit compared to what's expected today.

For Wednesday through the weekend, it looks hotter and drier.
Thursday through Saturday could see a complete shut-down of
seasonal thunderstorms as the high pressure ridge that has been
east of the area builds overhead and into northwest Mexico. That's
a firm blocking position combined with warmer mid levels to
inhibit convection. Back to record highs Friday through Sunday,
with a decent chance of 1 or more additional 110 temperatures
added to the summer total for Tucson.

Ensemble means are hinting that the western portion of the ridge
will break down and once again see a high center reconsolidating
to our east. That could open our corner of the state up again for
a thunderstorm return around next Monday or so. Tropics are
heating up again as well.

&&

.AVIATION...valid through 02/00Z.
Scattered to widespread SHRA/TSRA with gusty outflow winds
between 40-50 kts along with VSBY restrictions to 3SM or less
possible. Showers and thunderstorms diminishing by late evening
with partial clearing overnight. Isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA
return after 01/19Z. Outside of thunderstorm outflows, afternoon
SFC winds will be WLY at KTUS, and SLY at KOLS and KDUG at around
15 kts becoming light and terrain driven overnight. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to widespread afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms are expected across southeast Arizona.
Storms will be capable of producing strong, gusty, and erratic
outflow winds of 40-60 mph along with heavy rain. On Tuesday, storms
will have less coverage and intensity with wind gusts up to 45 mph
possible. Although sustained 20-foot winds will generally remain
under 15 mph, gusts to around 25 mph may occur. Temperatures
closer to normals today and tomorrow but will quickly heat back
up Wednesday and beyond, with near record highs returning by
Friday. Valley min RH readings will generally range between 20-
30% today and tomorrow with conditions drying out to 10-20% for
Wednesday and beyond.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Meyer

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
308 PM MST Mon Jul 31 2023

AZZ506-511-312300-
Southeast Pinal County including Kearny/Mammoth/Oracle-Galiuro and
Pinaleno Mountains including Mount Graham-
308 PM MST Mon Jul 31 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Pinal
County through 400 PM MST...

At 307 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dudleyville, or 8 miles north of Mammoth, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 45 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kearny, Dudleyville and Aravaipa Canyon Wilderness.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 77 between mile markers 118 and 134.
 Route 177 between mile markers 139 and 145.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3313 11053 3278 11054 3276 11075 3305 11096
      3307 11084 3298 11077 3300 11076 3303 11073
      3307 11073 3308 11069 3310 11068
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 173DEG 14KT 3285 11066

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

WJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
411 PM MST Mon Jul 31 2023

AZZ506-507-509-511-010000-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including
Clifton/Safford-Southeast Pinal County including
Kearny/Mammoth/Oracle-Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains including Mount Graham-
411 PM MST Mon Jul 31 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Graham
and eastern Pinal Counties through 500 PM MST...

At 411 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 20
miles east of San Manuel, or 24 miles southeast of Mammoth, moving
north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly remote areas of southwestern
Graham and eastern Pinal Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3248 11014 3244 11035 3268 11052 3275 11022
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 157DEG 10KT 3255 11029

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KJS