Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Tucson, AZ

834 
WWUS85 KTWC 280908
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
208 AM MST Fri Apr 28 2023

AZZ152-153-290200-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0006.230428T1800Z-230429T0200Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-
Southern San Carlos Reservation above 5000 feet-SDC-
208 AM MST Fri Apr 28 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING FOR NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152 AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 153 BELOW 6000 FEET...

* AFFECTED AREA...Northeast portions of Fire Weather Zone 152 
  (Gila River valley and far northeast Cochise County) and 
  southern portions of Fire Weather Zone 153 below 6000 feet. 

* TIMING...11 AM through 7 PM MST.

* WINDS...Northwest at 15 to 30 mph, with gusts between 35-45 
  mph. The strongest winds will be in the Gila River Valley.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...lowering to 5 to 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...Visit 
  weather.gov/Tucson and click on the Detailed Hazards Icon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$


Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

848 
WWUS85 KTWC 282130
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
230 PM MST Fri Apr 28 2023

AZZ152-153-290200-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-230429T0200Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-
Southern San Carlos Reservation above 5000 feet-SDC-
230 PM MST Fri Apr 28 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A HIGH
FIRE DANGER RATING FOR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
152 AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 153 BELOW 6000 FEET...

* AFFECTED AREA...Northeast portions of Fire Weather Zone 152 
  (Gila River valley and far northeast Cochise County) and 
  southern portions of Fire Weather Zone 153 below 6000 feet. 

* TIMING...until 7 PM MST.

* WINDS...Northwest at 15 to 30 mph, with gusts between 30-40 
  mph. The strongest winds will be in the Gila River Valley.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...5 to 13 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...Visit 
  weather.gov/Tucson and click on the Detailed Hazards Icon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

778 
WWUS85 KTWC 290151
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
651 PM MST Fri Apr 28 2023

AZZ152-153-290300-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-230429T0200Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-
Southern San Carlos Reservation above 5000 feet-SDC-
651 PM MST Fri Apr 28 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR 
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152 AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS 
OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 153 BELOW 6000 FEET...

$$


Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
226 AM MST Thu Apr 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer temperatures are expected into Monday with the
peak on Sunday.  A passing weather system on Friday will bring
gusty winds to the area resulting in the potential for critical fire
weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The area remains under dry NW flow aloft with heights
rising a bit from yesterday. The will allow for warmer temperatures
this afternoon compared to yesterday and a continuation of the west
to northwest afternoon breeze.

A system sliding down the ridge will drop through New Mexico Friday
which will tighten the pressure gradient over the eastern portion of
the forecast area resulting in gusty winds. This system is rather
compact and looks to have shifted a bit to the east vs what was
modeled 24 hours ago which will have the affect of limiting the
extent of stronger winds. Took the given blend and nudged it a bit
toward the 90th percentile winds to bring them up a bit toward MOS
guidance which is also a bit lower vs yesterday. Therefore will leave
the watch as is for now to see if that trend continues as we may
need to trim the areal coverage for a warning.

On the back side of this system a backdoor cold front will slide into
the eastern part of the area Saturday resulting in easterly winds
across the area and slightly cooler high temperatures eastern areas.
Then Sunday, the upper ridge crests over the area with winds becoming
light and this combo will result in the warmest temperatures this
forecast cycle with 95+ across the lower deserts and a few 100 degree
readings possible.

Beyond that a deep upper low will move down the west coast early next
week and settle off the California coast by the middle of the week
leaving our area under a southwest flow regime through the remainder
of the week given the current model solutions. This will result in
cooler temperatures (near or below normal) higher humidity levels and
gusty afternoon winds at times. Not enough moisture at this time for
much precipitation although can't totally rule out a light shower at
some point. The current forecast reflects the above scenario.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 28/12Z.
Clear skies, with just a FEW clouds AOA 25k ft AGl at times. SFC
wind less than 12 kts thru 27/19Z, then becoming WLY/NWLY 12-20 kts
with gusts to around 25 kt through 28/03z. Wind then gradually
becoming light and variable after 28/03Z. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will persist through at least early
next week, along with low relative humidity levels. Typical April
afternoon breeziness are expected today and again over the upcoming
weekend.

A storm system moving to our east will result in strong and gusty
winds on Friday, with critical fire weather conditions possible
across the eastern half of southeast Arizona below 6000 feet. A Fire
Weather Watch is in effect below 6000 feet for Friday from 10 AM to
8 PM MST for all of Fire Weather Zone 152, far eastern portions of
Fire Weather Zone 151, southern portions of Fire Weather Zone 153 and
in Fire Weather Zone 154 below 6000 feet.

Strong gusty winds and critical fire weather conditions may return
to southeast Arizona early next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for AZZ151>154.

&&

Public...Cerniglia
Aviation...Cerniglia
Fire Weather....Cerniglia

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson