Red Flag Warning 13, NWS Tucson, AZ

568 
WWUS85 KTWC 190855
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
155 AM MST Mon Jun 19 2023

AZZ150>152-154-200200-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0013.230619T1800Z-230620T0200Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 150
Sonoran FDRA-Most of Pima County-South Central Pinal County-
Tohono O'odham Nation-Tucson Metropolitan area-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154
Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast
Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC-
155 AM MST Mon Jun 19 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS, 
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 150, MOST OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES 151 AND 152, 
AND ALL OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 154...

* AFFECTED AREA...Eastern Fire Weather Zone 150, most of Fire
  Weather Zones 151 and 152, and all of Fire Weather Zone 154.

* TIMING...11 AM MST to 7 PM MST today.

* WINDS...Southwest to west at 15 to 25 mph, with gusts to 35 to 
  40 mph. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...5 to 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...Visit 
  weather.gov/Tucson and click on the Detailed Hazards Icon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$

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342 
WWUS85 KTWC 200158
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
658 PM MST Mon Jun 19 2023

AZZ150>152-154-200300-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230620T0200Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 150
Sonoran FDRA-Most of Pima County-South Central Pinal County-
Tohono O'odham Nation-Tucson Metropolitan area-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154
Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast
Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC-
658 PM MST Mon Jun 19 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MST THIS EVENING...

Although breezy southwest winds will persist into the evening
hours, the critical fire weather conditions have subsided.
Therefore, the Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire at 
7 PM MST.

$$


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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
211 AM MST Sun Jun 18 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Dry with typical June heat. Breezy to locally windy
the first half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...We have strong high pressure across central and
northern Mexico to our southeast, with a trough through much of
the region to our northwest and north. This will result in a
breezy to locally windy gradient at times in the afternoon today
and Monday.

Meanwhile, things are seasonably dry with surface dewpoints in the
20s and precipitable water values under 1/2 inch. There have been
some signs of life however. We're seeing a long fetch of mainly
mid and upper level moisture wrapping around the western flank of
the high, originating from the vicinity of a tropical wave
several hundred miles southwest of Mexico. Also, we've seen some
nice moisture depth push through Sinaloa with surface dewpoints
in the 60s and precipitable water around 1.5 inches nudging into
southern Sonora. While we won't see anything like that reaching
this far north, we could see a modest moisture uptick over the
next 24 hours lead to a few cloud buildups near the mountains the
next couple of afternoon. Probably nothing in the way of
measurable precip, with any dry lighting chances very low (below 5
percent).

With the ridge expected to reconsolidate over northwest Mexico the
second half of the week, we could push up to a few degrees above
climo by next weekend (something around 105ish at Tucson Airport).

&&

.AVIATION...valid through 19/12Z.
SCT-BKN clouds above 15k ft AGL thru the forecast period. SFC wind
less than 10 kts and variable in direction thru 18/17Z and again aft
19/04Z. Increasing SWLY/WLY SFC wind aft 18/17Z with speeds of 14-21
kts and gusts to 22-30 kts by 18/20Z. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected the next 7 days. Min
RH values will be 6-13 percent in valley locations and between 10-20
percent in the mountains. Gusty afternoon/early evening 20-foot
southwest to west winds will result in near critical fire weather
conditions east/southeast of Tucson today, from Tucson eastward on
Monday and then east/southeast of Tucson again Tuesday through
Friday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Meyer/Zell

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