Freeze Warning 3, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
313 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2023

.SYNOPSIS...An approaching storm will result in strong, potentially
damaging winds developing this afternoon and continuing through
tonight. Blowing dust is a possibility across the lower elevations
with blowing snow over the higher terrain. Precipitation will move
south over the area tonight and continue into Wednesday morning with
snow levels dropping to around 2,500 feet. Then cold air behind the
storm will result in very cold low temperatures Thursday morning. A
gradual warming trend is expected into the weekend with another storm
expected late in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong upper level trough over Oregon and Idaho will
drop south through the day and sweep across the area late tonight and
early Wednesday. As it does, very strong winds will develop this
afternoon and continue into tonight, peaking just ahead of the
associated surface front. This will be a high end wind advisory event
for the lower elevations with a few spots reaching high wind
criteria. One location noted for that in this pattern is the Sierra
Vista area (KFHU, KALK) and have added them to the High Wind Warning
which already covers the mountain areas. Overall, it will be one of
the windiest winter systems we have seen in a few years. This wind
will bring up some dust issues here and there, however recent rains
and and areas of greenup starting will mitigate this to some degree.
Mention of blowing dust is currently in the Wind Advisory messaging.
Also, blowing snow will be a problem across higher elevations.

Precipitation with the system will begin to settle southward this
evening, continue overnight and exit to the east Wednesday morning.
The snow level will start out around 6,000 feet then crash late
tonight behind the surface front. The bulk of the precipitation will
occur before the front so the majority of the snow will be across the
higher elevations with significant accumulations likely in the Winter
Storm Warning area. Note, a Winter Storm Warning also accounts for
High winds so a separate High Wind Warning is not needed where
Winter Storm Warnings are posted.

For the low elevations we expect some overlap of the precipitation
tapering and snow levels low enough to result in valley snow. At
this time, it looks like less than an inch most low elevations
locations Tucson east and south with a bit more in the now slightly
expanded snow advisory area, primarily Cochise county. That said we
will need to watch for the potential for the snow to linger another
hour or two for more accumulation. To early to pin that kind of
detail down.

Cold and dry air will invade the area behind the storm setting us up
for a very cold (for mid February) Thursday morning. Lows will be
pushing close to record some locations. Then beyond that temperatures
will gradually moderate with upper level ridging moving over the
region. This will last through Saturday then another, slow moving
storm system looks to take aim at the region Sunday into the middle
of next week. Model systems agree on a system of some sort however
there is a fair amount of variance on the structure/movement and
timing at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 15/12Z.
Areas of MVFR CIGS through 14/18Z otherwise mainly VFR until 15/03Z.
After 15/03Z SHRA increasing in coverage with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. ISOLD
TSRA mainly N of KTUS. Snow levels dropping markedly after 15/11Z
with SHRA/SHSN with local IFR CIGS/VSBYS east of KTUS/KOLS. SW winds
increasing to 25-35kts with gusts 40-50kts after 14/19Z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A strong storm will move south into tonight. As it
does, very strong winds will develop this afternoon and peak
overnight tonight as the front sweeps southeast across the area.
Precipitation will develop this evening and continue into Wednesday
morning. Snow levels will start around 6,000 ft this evening and drop
below 3,000 ft by dawn Wednesday with heavy accumulations across the
mountain tops and light accumulations as low as 2,800 ft. Dry and
cold Thursday with a gradual warming trend into the weekend. Another
storm system will approach the region late in the weekend with
increasing winds and a chance of precipitation Sunday into early next
week.

&&

.CLIMATE...Active week ahead with a couple winter storms moving
across the area. A rather cold air mass will accompany the 2nd
system midweek with near record low temperatures Thursday morning
February 16th.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 2 AM MST Wednesday for
AZZ503>506-513.

High Wind Warning from noon today to 5 AM MST Wednesday for
AZZ512-513.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 5 AM MST Wednesday for
AZZ507>509.

Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 5 AM MST Wednesday for
AZZ510-511-514.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM MST Wednesday for
AZZ507-508-512-513.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 11 PM MST this evening for
AZZ501-502.

High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST Wednesday
for AZZ507.

High Wind Warning from noon today to 11 PM MST this evening for
AZZ515.

&&

Public...Cerniglia
Aviation...Drozd
Fire Weather....Cerniglia

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