Wind Advisory 7, NWS Tulsa, OK

677 
WWUS74 KTSA 170136
NPWTSA

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
836 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

OKZ049-053>067-070-071-073>075-171200-
/O.CON.KTSA.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-230317T1200Z/
Pushmataha-Choctaw-Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-
Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-
Including the cities of Antlers, Clayton, Hugo, Pawhuska, 
Bartlesville, Nowata, Vinita, Miami, Pawnee, Tulsa, Claremore, 
Pryor, Grove, Jay, Sapulpa, Okemah, Okmulgee, Wagoner, Muskogee, 
Checotah, McAlester, Stigler, and Wilburton
836 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...North to northwest winds 20 to 30 miles an hour with
  gusts up to 45 miles an hour.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast and southeast 
  Oklahoma.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM CDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds this strong can make driving difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should exercise caution while driving.  Be alert to
sudden gusts of wind which may cause you to lose control of your
vehicle.  Extra attention should be given to cross winds and on
bridges and overpasses.

&&

$$

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio,commercial radio or television
for the latest information,forecasts,and warnings.
For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/tsa

178 
WWUS74 KTSA 170759
NPWTSA

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
259 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

OKZ049-053>067-070-071-073>075-170900-
/O.CAN.KTSA.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-230317T1200Z/
Pushmataha-Choctaw-Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-
Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-
Including the cities of Antlers, Clayton, Hugo, Pawhuska, 
Bartlesville, Nowata, Vinita, Miami, Pawnee, Tulsa, Claremore, 
Pryor, Grove, Jay, Sapulpa, Okemah, Okmulgee, Wagoner, Muskogee, 
Checotah, McAlester, Stigler, and Wilburton
259 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Wind gusts greater than 40 mph are no longer expected within the
advisory area as the cold front continues to push off to the
southeast. Thus...the advisory has been cancelled. However,
northerly wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph will remain possible this 
morning.

$$

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio,commercial radio or television
for the latest information,forecasts,and warnings.
For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/tsa

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1222 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1040 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

A strong weather system will move through the area today. For this
morning, expect widespread rain showers with occasional
thunderstorms. Gusty south winds of 20-35 mph are possible. As we
move into the early afternoon, continued lift ahead of the cold
front will gradually improve the convective environment with
MUCAPE of 500-2000 J/KG possible (highest south). Strong wind
shear sufficient for supercells will continue as well.

For northeast OK, there will be a brief window for marginally
severe thunderstorms right along the cold front during the early
afternoon. The main risk would be hail up to about 1" and damaging
wind gusts to 60 mph. As the cold front moves east through the
afternoon and evening the severe risk will expand and increase,
especially for southeast OK. All severe hazards will be possible,
including tornadoes, hail up to the size of golf balls, and wind
gusts to 70 mph.

Behind the cold front, precipitation will wind down, with no
additional rainfall after about 7 PM. A chilly and breezy north
wind will continue for the remainder of the day. Wind gusts of
25-35 mph will be possible during this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Dry and cool conditions prevail Friday with a reinforcing surge of
unseasonably cold air arriving Friday night. Temperatures well
below normal are expected Saturday with only a slow moderation
through early next week. A widespread hard freeze is expected
Saturday and Sunday nights.

Return flow begins Tuesday with windy conditions and warming
temperatures by Wednesday. A low chance of showers will be
included for early next week with the next storm system and
associated cold front increasing thunderstorm chances by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Widespread southerly winds will remain into the early afternoon
with gusts of 25-30 kts at all TAF sites. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible at all locations as well. A cold
front will increase the thunderstorm risk for northeast OK TAF
locations between 19-21Z with marginally severe hail and wind
possible. The cold front will then affect KMLC and the northwest
AR TAF locations from 21-01Z this afternoon. Behind the cold
front, winds will switch to the northwest with gusts of 25-35 kts
and a drying trend.

In terms of cloud cover, low CIGs of 1-2 kft can be expected,
perhaps lowering to 0.5-1.5 kft during frontal passage. Some
visibility reductions will also occur during the heavier rainfall,
down to 2-3 SM. CIGs will gradually lift with no additional vis
reductions for the evening and overnight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  29  51  27 / 100  20   0   0
FSM   64  34  52  32 / 100  80   0   0
MLC   67  32  50  30 / 100  30   0   0
BVO   63  26  51  23 /  90  30   0   0
FYV   60  27  48  27 / 100  70   0   0
BYV   61  28  46  27 /  90  90   0   0
MKO   64  30  49  30 / 100  30   0   0
MIO   61  27  47  25 / 100  40   0   0
F10   65  30  50  30 / 100  20   0   0
HHW   68  36  51  34 /  90  90   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for OKZ049-053>067-071-073-
     075.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...06

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
448 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
448 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 2 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will develop by late morning or early afternoon
ahead of a strong cold front. Severe thunderstorm potential
will exist with the early day storms with large hail the
primary threat. Conditions will become increasingly supportive
of significant severe weather across southeast Oklahoma by
mid afternoon. Supercells capable of very large hail and a
few tornadoes will be possible from mid afternoon through
early evening south of Interstate 40. The cold front will
be moving quickly southeastward through the afternoon and
will end the severe weather threat once it passes all areas by
mid evening.

Additionally, gusty winds will continue today into
tonight with frequent gusts of 30 to 40 mph both ahead
of the cold front and also after it passes.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY through MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm and High Wind Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably cold weather is expected this weekend with
a widespread hard freeze likely Saturday and Sunday nights.
Thunderstorm chances and gusty winds return by mid
next week ahead of the next storm system.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1151 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

ARZ019-029-OKZ072-161715-
Sebastian AR-Crawford AR-Sequoyah OK-
1151 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Crawford,
northwestern Sebastian and southeastern Sequoyah Counties through
1215 PM CDT...

At 1151 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Roland, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fort Smith...                     Van Buren...
Cedarville...                     Mountainburg...
Alma...                           Muldrow...
Roland...                         Mulberry...
Dyer...                           Chester...
Moffett...                        Rudy...
Lake Fort Smith...                Figure Five...
Concord...                        Shibley...
Mill Creek...                     Cottonwood...
Dora...                           Furry...

This includes the following highways,
 Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 0 and 21.
 Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 320 and 328.
 Interstate 540 between mile markers 1 and 8.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 22 and 37.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3532 9443 3538 9443 3538 9447 3537 9449
      3535 9448 3533 9450 3531 9448 3530 9450
      3543 9462 3572 9421 3561 9407 3558 9407
      3557 9403 3556 9402
TIME...MOT...LOC 1651Z 234DEG 48KT 3541 9448

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

OKZ054-059-161815-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Osage
and northwestern Pawnee Counties through 115 PM CDT...

At 1208 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from Hardy to 4 miles southwest of Sooner Lake.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and dime size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Fairfax...
Shidler...                        Ralston...
Burbank...                        Skedee...
Grainola...                       Foraker...
Pearsonia...                      Sooner Lake...
Southern Kaw Lake...              Webb City...
Apperson...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9635 3699 9635 3633 9663 3631 9693
      3633 9693 3633 9703 3651 9703 3655 9690
      3660 9691 3660 9692 3658 9703 3659 9702
      3669 9698 3669 9693 3675 9689 3674 9683
      3677 9682 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 263DEG 23KT 3698 9680 3638 9706

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH