Wind Advisory 6, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1145 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 909 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023

Quiet night on tap across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas,
with earlier cloud cover and spotty light showers long since gone
from southern sections of the area. An overall decrease to
forecast cloud cover through sunrise tomorrow has been made.
Surface high pressure remains this evening across far eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas and should linger there through
early tomorrow morning, leading to another chilly night in that
region. Have also decreased low temperatures in northwest
Arkansas a few degrees, closer to traditional MOS guidance.
Other elements have been adjusted according to trends. Updated
products already out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023

Warmer conditions expected on Wednesday with strong/gusty south
winds developing. Could see a few gusts around 40 mph, mainly over
Pawnee/Osage counties during the afternoon. At least a limited
fire danger is expected over those same areas, which has seen
little rainfall and currently in extreme (D3) to exceptional (D4)
drought. Increasing dew-points/low level moisture, however will
help mitigate a more significant threat, keeping RH values above
critical levels at or above 45 percent.

Broad upper wave will move out the desert Southwest and into the
central Plains on Thursday. Showers will begin to increase in
coverage Thursday morning with embedded thunderstorms developing in
the stronger warm advection regime. A few of these storms could
approach severe limits, producing marginally severe hail, given the
elevated instability forecast. With the widespread precipitation/cloud
cover persisting over much of the area, it appears that any surface
based instability that develops will mainly be confined to far
southeast Oklahoma. As the cold front moves in aforementioned area
by late afternoon, a few severe storms will be possible before
cold front sweeps southeast by early evening.

Cold/brisk conditions will develop behind the front Thursday night
with wind chills falling into the teens by Friday morning across NE
OK/NW AR. In addition, precipitation could briefly transition to
snow Thursday night, especially if the EC verifies with a stronger
mid level vort max progged to move through compared to GFS. The
unseasonably cold weather will continue through the weekend as
expansive arctic high pressure builds over the central/eastern
states. A slow warming trend is expected into the early part of
next week, but high temperatures will still remain 5 to 10 degrees
below normal, struggling to warm into the mid 50s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all area sites through
the valid period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  65  54  62 /   0   0  20  90
FSM   34  65  52  63 /   0   0  10  90
MLC   38  65  56  64 /   0   0  20  90
BVO   32  65  51  63 /   0   0  20  90
FYV   30  62  50  62 /   0   0  10  90
BYV   32  60  50  62 /   0   0  10  90
MKO   36  63  54  63 /   0   0  20  90
MIO   36  62  53  61 /   0   0  20  90
F10   37  63  55  64 /   0   0  20  90
HHW   37  65  54  66 /   0   0  10  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
433 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
433 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Strong winds will develop on Wednesday with gusts of 30 to 40 mph
possible during the afternoon. Grassland fire spread rates will
increase accordingly especially across northeast Oklahoma. Any
carryover controlled burns may be impacted by the winds as
afternoon relative humidity values fall into the 35 to 45 percent
range areawide. Strong winds will continue into Thursday as a cold
front and dryline move into Oklahoma. Strong to severe storms
will be possible late Thursday afternoon into the evening along
and ahead of the front with the greatest concern across southeast
Oklahoma into west central Arkansas. Instability and wind shear
will be sufficient for large hail and damaging winds. Gusty north
winds will follow the frontal passage on Friday as unseasonably
cold air settles across the region through the weekend. The colder
post-frontal air may lead to a brief transition of rain to snow
across parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas
Thursday night before precipitation totally clears the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.