Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1221 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

Well-organized line of strong/severe thunderstorms moving eastward
across wrn OK at this time. Latest mesoanaylses indicate activity is
currently developing into/through the greatest instability, with
decreasing instability across central and ern OK. Expect activity to
progress eastward into our area later tonight, but we should see a
weakening trend as it encounters weaker instability. MUCAPE only
1000-1500 j/kg at this time over ern OK as a result of the multiple
rounds of non-severe convection/associated clouds that affected the
area today. Ongoing forecast trending well, with slight adjustments
to POP east-central OK counties, as current trends/CAMs suggest MCS
may move a little further south than earlier anticipated. Updated
forecasts already issued.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

The MCS is forecast to be ongoing and moving east and southeast
across the CWA Saturday morning. Severe potentials should be
weakening from the early to mid morning hours. However...gusty to
locally strong winds will remain possible Saturday morning. Much
of this activity looks to push off to the east and southeast
Saturday afternoon. Temps for the afternoon hours look to again
remain on the cool side with continued cloud cover with forecast
highs in the 80s.

The pattern over the region continues to be a "rinse-wash-repeat"
through the weekend and into the first part of next week...as the
ridge of high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest with
west northwesterly mid/upper level flow over the CWA. This will
allow for a series of MCS complexes to push across the region
Saturday night into Sunday...Sunday night into Monday and once
again possibly Monday night into Tuesday. Saturday night into
Monday morning...the greater storm potential and MCS tracks look
to be along and south of Interstate 40. Monday night into Tuesday
the greater storm potential looks to spread back northward over
the CWA as the ridge of high pressure begins to expand eastward
into the Southern Plains. Precipitable water values through
Tuesday look to be in the 1.5 to 2+ inches...which will aid in the
potential for periods of heavy rainfall from all the multiple
rounds of storm chances. At least limited severe potentials will
also be possible with each storm complex as they move across the
CWA. These conditions will keep afternoon temps below the seasonal
average.

For the second half of next week...the eastern periphery of the
upper level ridge expands into the region with the return of hot
and humid conditions. This should also push MCS tracks
north/northeast of the CWA for a couple days...before the ridge
tries to retreat westward by next weekend. In response...high
temperatures back in the 90s and heat index values of 105-110
degrees return Wednesday through Friday. Precip chances look to
possibly increase again Friday/just outside of this forecast
package with the retreating ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

A complex of scattered showers and storms will move into eastern
Oklahoma over the next couple of hours, possibly affecting all
terminals through the early morning hours. Chances will then shift
into western Arkansas for the late morning and early afternoon.
Additional storm chances will arrive during the late afternoon and
evening hours. Outside of rain and storms, VFR conditions should
prevail through the period with light winds also prevailing.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  68  86  68 /  50  40  30  20
FSM   87  72  85  70 /  60  60  60  30
MLC   87  71  82  69 /  60  60  60  40
BVO   83  63  85  62 /  40  40  20  10
FYV   84  67  84  63 /  60  40  40  30
BYV   84  66  84  61 /  50  40  30  20
MKO   85  68  83  67 /  60  50  50  30
MIO   85  64  84  62 /  40  30  20  10
F10   84  68  82  67 /  50  60  60  30
HHW   89  73  83  71 /  50  50  70  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1014 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1014 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET...After 11 pm.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 11 pm.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 11 pm.

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms developing into central Oklahoma from
western Oklahoma this evening are expected to continue spreading
eastward overnight. This activity is expected to begin affecting
portions of eastern Oklahoma around midnight, and northwestern
Arkansas later tonight. Additional thunderstorms are possible across
southern Kansas, moving into northeastern Oklahoma. The atmosphere
over eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas is not as unstable as
regions to the west, due to several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms, and associated cloud cover, that moved through today.
However, some severe weather is still possible overnight, namely
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and large hail to about half dollar
size.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY through TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
Dangerous Heat Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
An active pattern will continue this weekend into early next week,
with additional rounds of thunderstorms expected through Tuesday.
This will lead to an increasing threat of heavy rainfall and possible
flooding, primarily on Saturday. Severe weather will also be
possible with any of the more organized thunderstorm complexes in
this pattern. The overall threat of storms may begin to decrease by
the middle of next week, with hotter and more humid weather
returning.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
215 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

OKZ060-061-064-066-067-070-080745-
Tulsa OK-Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Rogers OK-Creek OK-Wagoner OK-
215 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Rogers,
east central Creek, western Wagoner, northern Okmulgee, northwestern
Muskogee and southeastern Tulsa Counties through 245 AM CDT...

At 214 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 7 miles
northwest of Bald Hill, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Bixby...                          Sapulpa...
Jenks...                          Glenpool...
Coweta...                         Catoosa...
Verdigris...                      Haskell...
Kiefer...                         Beggs...
Mounds...                         Porter...
Preston...                        Jenks Riverside Airport...
Stonebluff...                     Bald Hill...
Oneta...                          Liberty...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 208 and 214, and
between mile markers 221 and 245.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3567 9609 3598 9620 3628 9565 3578 9549
TIME...MOT...LOC 0714Z 257DEG 30KT 3584 9589

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Bowlan

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
333 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

OKZ063-067>070-080900-
Adair OK-Muskogee OK-Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-Wagoner OK-
333 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Delaware, west central Adair, east central Wagoner, Cherokee and
northeastern Muskogee Counties through 400 AM CDT...

At 332 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
west of Tahlequah, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tahlequah...                      Fort Gibson...
Hulbert...                        Oaks...
Eldon...                          Leach...
Proctor...                        Christie...
Scraper...                        Peggs...
Sequoyah State Park...            Lost City...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3594 9466 3571 9515 3592 9535 3608 9516
      3608 9512 3611 9512 3616 9505 3616 9501
      3620 9501 3627 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 0832Z 233DEG 25KT 3593 9504

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
401 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

ARZ001-010-OKZ063-068-069-080930-
Benton AR-Washington AR-Adair OK-Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-
401 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Benton,
west central Washington, southeastern Delaware, northern Adair and
northeastern Cherokee Counties through 430 AM CDT...

At 400 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Proctor, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Siloam Springs...                 Lincoln...
Westville...                      West Siloam Springs...
Watts...                          Oaks...
Eldon...                          Proctor...
Christie...                       Cincinnati...
Maryetta...                       Scraper...
Baron...                          Lake Francis...
Ballard...                        Clyde...
Canehill...                       Summers...
Natural Falls State Park...       Morrow...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3581 9488 3608 9503 3631 9455 3587 9434
TIME...MOT...LOC 0900Z 247DEG 29KT 3597 9479

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MAB