Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
221 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and Tonight)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

Ongoing, widely scattered storms will last through the afternoon
hours, mainly across southeast Oklahoma near a weak mid level
trough axis sliding across north Texas. Isolated to scattered
storms will also be likely within the higher terrain regions of
northwest Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma as daytime heating
reaches its peak. A relative min in storm coverage is expected
along and on either side of the I-44 corridor where deeper, drier
air has worked into the area, limiting overall instability across
much of northeast Oklahoma. Storms along the Red River will have
the potential to be strong, with gusty winds the main threat, but
any widespread severe potential is not expected. Storms should die
off with the loss of daytime heating this evening across much of
the region, though some could linger across far southeast
Oklahoma, near the mid level vort max, into the late evening at
least. Overnight lows will continue to be similar to previous
nights, with lows mostly in the 60s with a few upper 50s sprinkled
in.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

Similar conditions are expected for Tuesday, with storm chances
best across northwest Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma, though
some deeper Gulf moisture should spread back in allowing for more
widely scattered coverage across the whole CWA during the
afternoon hours. Deep layer ridging will build in over most of the
area on Wednesday, leading to the lowest storm chances of the
week. A few isolated storms will still be possible, with better
chances across northwest Arkansas on the periphery of the blocking
ridge and where terrain could influence some diurnal convection
during the afternoon. Guidance continues to indicate the arrival
of a back door front sneaking into the region during the day
Thursday along the backside of the broad mid level trough situated
over the Great Lakes Region. It remains to be seen how far this
front will advance into Oklahoma, as latest trends have been for
it to become stalled in the terrain of the Ozarks in Southwest
Missouri and Northwest Arkansas. More storm coverage can be
expected Thursday afternoon in the vicinity of the boundary. Mid
level flow still remains fairly weak, so any organized severe
potential is still low, but any clustering of storms and upscale
growth could lead to some scattered strong to severe wind gusts or
some small hail with the strongest storms.

Persistent scattered daily storm chances return for Friday and
Saturday with highs hovering near 90 degrees through the week.
Guidance continues to indicate a change in the pattern is
possible by the weekend. Better storm chances, and a stronger
frontal boundary could approach the area by Sunday as the blocking
ridge retrogrades to the west and mid level flow strengthens over
the Southern Plains. Severe weather chances could also increase
during this time with the more active southern stream. Some
slightly cooler temperatures could slide in behind the front early
next week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

VFR conditions will prevail with scattered afternoon cu. Isolated
pop-up showers and storms not expected to be great enough in
coverage to include in TAFs. Future amendments could be made if a
terminal stands a better chance of being impacted later. The
valley site of KFYV and KROG near Beaver Lake have had fog in
previous nights. Used TEMPO groups to convey potential, hitting
KFYV hardest with IFR conditions possible.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  89  65  91 /   0  20   0  10
FSM   66  91  65  93 /  20  30   0  10
MLC   63  89  62  90 /  20  20   0  10
BVO   59  89  61  91 /  20  20   0  10
FYV   60  89  60  90 /  20  30  10  10
BYV   61  88  61  89 /  20  30  10  10
MKO   63  88  63  89 /  10  20   0  10
MIO   61  89  61  90 /  20  20   0  10
F10   63  87  63  88 /  10  20   0  10
HHW   65  89  64  89 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30

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