Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
254 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

As of mid afternoon the majority of the remaining showers had
retreated westward out of Eastern Oklahoma. This was in response
to the mid level theta-e axis pushing the deeper moisture plume
back westward as the boundary continued to sag west southwest. The
exception was over far Southeast Oklahoma where the theta-e axis
still remained in Choctaw county with some scattered light rain
showers. A slight chance showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible over this area through the late afternoon.

An additional slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible within the higher terrain of Northwest Arkansas
and Northeast Oklahoma...where afternoon temps had warmed into
the mid/upper 80s. Any storm development across the CWA this
afternoon should weaken with the loss of daytime heating.

Overnight tonight...as the region remains in weak flow
aloft...another lobe of vorticity currently over Central Texas is
progged to slowly drift eastward toward the region. This should
keep scattered cloud cover across Southeast Oklahoma...while
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are forecast for the rest of
the CWA tonight. Low temps in the 60s should remain common.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

With the vorticity lobe near/just south of the CWA Monday...which
combined with max afternoon heating...should be enough to allow
for isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm chances
once again Monday afternoon. The greater potential is forecast
over far Southeast Oklahoma...closer to the vort max...while more
isolated coverage is possible for the rest of the CWA. Gusty winds
and brief heavy rain are possible with the stronger storms. For
locations within the CWA that do not receive any
rainfall...afternoon temps in the upper 80s to around 90 deg are
forecast.

Daily afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances are forecast to
continue each afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday. For
Thursday...model solutions continue to go back and forth with the
potential boundary moving southwest toward the CWA. An area of
low pressure is progged to drop southward and become elongated
from southwest to northeast as it rotates around the main closed
low off the Northeast U.S. Coast. Latest model runs are more
aggressive with the west southwest expanse of the upper low which
allows for the associated surface frontal boundary to potentially
reach into the eastern portion of the CWA Thursday/Friday. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will be possible as the boundary
approaches and moves into the region into Friday. Behind the
boundary...drier air and a weak building ridge aloft would shift
the greater precip chances westward Friday afternoon into
Saturday. High temps through the week are forecast to remain in
the mid 80 to low 90 deg range with lows in the 60s for most
locations.

The late week drier air looks to be short lived as additional
shower and thunderstorm chances become possible during the
weekend. Another area of low pressure and cold front are progged
to drop southward through the Plains Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

VFR conditions will prevail thru the period, outside of a low
chance of storms. Chances are a bit better across SE OK so a VCTS
mention was inserted into the TAF at KMLC thru 01Z. There was fog
this morning at the far NW AR sites, likely due to the rains at
those sites yesterday. With chances for rain much less today
overall, light fog mention will be inserted at KFYV given
persistence and guidance, and at KMLC due to the potential for
rain there.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  89  65  90 /  10  20   0  20
FSM   66  91  66  91 /  10  20   0  30
MLC   63  88  63  89 /  10  20  10  30
BVO   60  89  60  90 /  10  20  10  20
FYV   60  87  60  88 /   0  20   0  30
BYV   61  89  62  88 /   0  20   0  20
MKO   64  88  64  89 /  10  20  10  30
MIO   62  89  61  90 /  10  20  10  20
F10   63  87  64  88 /  10  20   0  30
HHW   65  89  65  88 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
246 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

OKZ062-042015-
Mayes OK-
246 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Mayes
County through 315 PM CDT...

At 246 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
south of Chouteau. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Chouteau...                       Mazie...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3610 9525 3607 9535 3607 9544 3617 9544
      3621 9533
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 222DEG 1KT 3612 9537

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
317 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

ARZ010-042045-
Washington AR-
317 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Washington
County through 345 PM CDT...

At 316 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
southeast of Drake Field Airport, moving southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fayetteville...                   West Fork...
Greenland...                      Drake Field Airport...
Woolsey...                        Sulphur City...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 47 and 59.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3607 9409 3598 9401 3584 9419 3598 9428
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 055DEG 13KT 3598 9413

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH