Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
634 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

The main forecast concern for this package is the near term severe
weather threat, largely focused across parts of far southeast
Oklahoma. Thunderstorm development is currently tied to an outflow
boundary from the morning thunderstorm complex stretched across
southeast Oklahoma. Local mesoanalysis indicates CAPE values in
excess of 2000 J/kg across much of southeast Oklahoma, with
instability continuing to climb through the afternoon. This
instability along with sufficient deep layer shear will continue
to support organized thunderstorms into the evening. Additional
development could also occur in advance of a strong cold front
currently entering areas north of I-44. This front will continue
to surge southward this afternoon and evening, with its passage
signaling the end of any severe threat. Showers may linger after
the frontal passage, however, even this should diminish from
northwest to southeast by daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

Surface high pressure will push into the area for the weekend on
the heels of tonight's cold frontal passage, leading to a
seasonably cool and dry couple of days that may extend into Monday
as well. A more active pattern will develop for the middle to
latter part of next week, with daily shower and thunderstorm
chances but limited severe weather potential. An expanding ridge
across the Southern and Central Plains in the lee of the Rockies
will place northwest flow across much of eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas. Initially, the showers and thunderstorms will be
focused across western parts of the forecast area, with a shift
eastward along with the ridge expansion toward the middle of week.
Things will refocus back westward late in the week as an upper
level storm system approaches the Northern and Central Plains
toward the next weekend. Temperatures for the latter part of next
week should reach above normal levels areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

Flying conditions are widely varied across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas this evening. Mainly MVFR to IFR conditions are
expected later this evening before conditions improve area-wide
Saturday morning.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
513 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
513 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly Near and South of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
A few severe thunderstorms will continue through early this
evening to the south of a cold front that is moving across the
area at this time. Large hail will be the biggest threat, with a
lesser threat of damaging winds. The severe weather threat will
end by shortly after sunset once the cold front exits the area.

Gusty north winds following the passage of the front will
gradually diminish overnight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY through THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Quiet weather is expected across the entire area through the
weekend. Chances of thunderstorms will return next week,
especially toward the middle part of the week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
621 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

ARZ029-192345-
Sebastian AR-
621 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Sebastian
County through 645 PM CDT...

At 620 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Excelsior, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fort Smith...                     Greenwood...
Hackett...                        Bonanza...
Bloomer...                        Excelsior...
Burnville...                      Jenny Lind...
Crossroads...                     Witcherville...
Dayton...                         Rye Hill...
Milltown...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
west central Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3514 9412 3514 9414 3511 9414 3511 9444
      3529 9443 3530 9411
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 272DEG 30KT 3520 9435

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
713 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

ARZ029-200045-
Sebastian AR-
713 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Sebastian County through 745 PM CDT...

At 713 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
northeast of Hartford, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mansfield...                      Hartford...
Huntington...                     Midland...
Patterson...                      Arkola...
Crossroads...                     Witcherville...
Dayton...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
west central Arkansas...and southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3509 9419 3508 9420 3508 9422 3506 9425
      3506 9423 3497 9424 3495 9429 3496 9433
      3495 9434 3496 9437 3494 9439 3494 9441
      3496 9445 3501 9444 3516 9429 3510 9416
      3509 9416
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 301DEG 39KT 3505 9433

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
716 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

OKZ073-200100-
Pittsburg OK-
716 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern
Pittsburg County through 800 PM CDT...

At 716 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles west of Kiowa to 3 miles northwest of
Blanco. Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Kiowa...                          Savanna...
Ashland...                        Blanco...
Pittsburg...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 9588 3468 9606 3477 9608 3486 9571
      3462 9551 3460 9551 3459 9588
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 336DEG 13KT 3474 9597 3477 9583

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
732 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW CROSSROADS        35.09N 94.21W
05/19/2023                   SEBASTIAN          AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN OVER ROAD.

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
744 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DAYTON                  35.12N 94.22W
05/19/2023                   SEBASTIAN          AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN DAYTON AREA.

&&

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
748 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

OKZ049-073-200145-
Pittsburg OK-Pushmataha OK-
748 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern
Pushmataha and south central Pittsburg Counties through 845 PM CDT...

At 748 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles northwest of Daisy to 10 miles southeast
of Blanco. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Clayton...                        Kosoma...
Clayton Lake State Park...        Dunbar...
Stanley...                        Eubanks...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3447 9578 3450 9578 3451 9577 3451 9567
      3459 9567 3460 9587 3471 9561 3452 9522
      3433 9561
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 306DEG 21KT 3459 9578 3465 9564

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH