Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1205 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

Warm and humid conditions supporting a strongly unstable airmass
across the region this afternoon. Storms are expected to develop
across NW TX into far S OK by late afternoon. Relatively weak
steering flow and an eventual increase in the low level jet yields
slow eastward storm motions. The result is an eventual upscale
expanding convective cluster than could organize into a more
forward propagating system and move into SE OK by late evening
through the early morning hours. Several guidance sources indicate
conditions favorable for strong winds well removed from the
strongest storms and fcst soundings suggest profiles supportive of
these evaporatively aided winds. Should this develop this pockets
of stronger winds may persist into the overnight hours.
Additionally, elevated convection may not entirely wane overnight
and low chances of persistent storms will be retained through
Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

Isolated to scattered early day convection may be ongoing Sunday
primarily across SE OK through western AR. By afternoon focus will
again turn to areas across western OK and NW TX as storms develop
along the dryline. These storms will likely spread slowly eastward
and possibly into the local forecast area with a gradual weakening
trend.

The forecast become more uncertain by Monday but the idea of a
weak frontal boundary and associated storms moving into the region
Monday night into Tuesday remains present and the forecast
continues to favor this scenario. Thereafter the flow aloft
becomes notably weaker across the southern Plains. Various
scenarios exist for potential weak upper low centers meandering
across the region amidst a moist airmass. The pattern, while
nondescript, will support daily shower and storm chances through
the remainder of the week. Severe weather chances will remain low
given the weak flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun May 7 2023

Area thunderstorms moving across southeast Oklahoma will
likely impact KFSM by 07Z with wind gusts to around 50 knots
possible. Showers and gusty winds will also continue at
KMLC for the next couple of hours. Otherwise, VFR to MVFR
conditions are expected at area sites through the valid
period outside of the thunderstorm areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  87  66  87 /  20  20  50  20
FSM   68  87  69  89 /  20  20  40  30
MLC   66  86  67  87 /  20  10  30  20
BVO   62  87  61  88 /  20  20  50  30
FYV   65  84  64  85 /  20  20  50  30
BYV   67  84  65  85 /  20  30  50  30
MKO   67  84  66  86 /  20  20  50  20
MIO   67  85  64  86 /  20  30  60  30
F10   66  86  66  86 /  20  10  40  20
HHW   66  84  67  85 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
544 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
544 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Late Evening to around Midnight.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Overnight.

DISCUSSION...

A cluster or complex of storms is expected to move into southeast
Oklahoma late this evening to around midnight. These storms will
have the potential to produce damaging winds and locally heavy
rainfall.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Daily thunderstorm chances will continue Sunday through much of
next week. With an unstable airmass persisting over eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas, at least a limited threat for severe
thunderstorms will exist during this time frame. In addition,
locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the stronger storms.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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