Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Tulsa, OK

228 
WWUS54 KTSA 152056
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
356 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

ARC143-152105-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-230415T2115Z/
Washington AR-
356 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
northwestern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3586 9387 3599 9395 3604 9395 3617 9371
      3618 9365 3595 9361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 243DEG 41KT 3599 9384 

$$

ARC087-152115-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-230415T2115Z/
Madison AR-
356 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY...

At 355 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Japton, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations in or near the path include...
Huntsville...                     Withrow Springs State Park...
Wesley...                         Aurora...
Japton...                         Witter...
Georgetown...                     Alabam...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 9387 3599 9395 3604 9395 3617 9371
      3618 9365 3595 9361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 243DEG 41KT 3599 9384 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

195 
WWUS54 KTSA 152107 RRA
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
407 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

ARC087-152117-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-230415T2115Z/
Madison AR-
407 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
northwestern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3586 9387 3599 9395 3604 9395 3617 9371
      3618 9365 3595 9361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 257DEG 18KT 3600 9377 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
254 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed from northwest
Arkansas into extreme eastern Oklahoma just ahead of a cold front
that will move east of the area by around 5 pm. Cloud cover behind
the front will clear from west to east overnight, with overnight
low temperatures falling into the mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Gusty northwest winds Sunday will result in an elevated fire
weather danger, especially to the west of Highway 75 in northeast
Oklahoma where drought conditions persist. Fire weather concerns
will remain elevated through the first part of next week as gusty
southerly winds return and temperatures warm back to well above
normal levels.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will return by late Tuesday and
Tuesday night, but the better storm chances will hold off until
Wednesday night and Thursday when the next storm system will
impact the area. The timing of the dryline/cold front into the
area may not be ideal for a significant severe weather threat in
our area, but this is subject to change if the system slows its
progress a bit from current projections.

Cooler and drier weather will return by the end of next week into
the following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

A cold front is slicing through the area this afternoon with mostly
VFR conditions ahead of the front and MVFR conditions behind it.
Thunderstorms will possibly impact the western arkansas sites early
in the forecast period as the cold front advances to the east.
MVFR ceilings persist at the NE OK sites into this evening and
even longer into tonight across NW AR. Mostly VFR conditions return
on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  67  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   44  68  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   41  68  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   36  67  35  79 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   37  62  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   40  61  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   40  67  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   40  62  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
F10   40  67  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   43  68  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
101 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
101 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
A cold front currently moving across eastern Oklahoma will sweep through
the remainder of the area this afternoon. Storms are expected to develop
along the front across far eastern Oklahoma through western Arkansas during the
afternoon hours. Severe weather is possible with these storms with potential
for very large hail with the strongest storms. The severe weather threat
will end by early evening as storms quickly spread further eastward.
Additionally, gusty winds behind the passing cold front will raise grassland fire spread
rates across northeast Oklahoma this afternoon

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Grassland fire spread potential will increase area wide on Sunday
and especially areas of northeast Oklahoma where drought conditions
persist. Winds will gradually decrease by Monday.

Low thunderstorm chances return Tuesday along with increasing winds
Tuesday and especially Wednesday. The increasing winds will again
raise grassland fire weather concerns for portions of northeast
Oklahoma. A stronger storm system influences the region by
next Thursday and a risk of severe weather may develop.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
322 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             2 SSW BENTONVILLE       36.35N 94.22W
04/15/2023  E0.88 INCH       BENTON             AR   PUBLIC

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
323 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSW BENTONVILLE       36.34N 94.22W
04/15/2023  E60 MPH          BENTON             AR   PUBLIC

            THUNDERSTORM WINDS ESTIMATED TO 60 MPH.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
324 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE FORT SMITH         35.35N 94.36W
04/15/2023                   SEBASTIAN          AR   PUBLIC

            BROKEN TREE LIMBS AND SOME SHINGLES BLOWN
            OFF ROOF.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
328 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     HAIL             3 N BELLA VISTA         36.47N 94.24W
04/15/2023  E1.00 INCH       BENTON             AR   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             DYER                    35.50N 94.14W
04/15/2023  E2.00 INCH       CRAWFORD           AR   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY STORM CHASER.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
334 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     HAIL             3 E ROGERS              36.34N 94.07W
04/15/2023  E1.00 INCH       BENTON             AR   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT.

&&

JDS